744
AXPZ20 KNHC 111607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A robust 1030 mb high
pressure system over Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico is forcing
storm- force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An oil
tanker, the Apollo Voyager, confirmed 50 kt winds just to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass showed strong N to NE gap winds
reaching up to 420 nm to the southwest of Salina Cruz, on the
southern end of the isthmus. Seas are peaking near 23 ft (7 m) in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a plume of rough to very rough seas
extending well to the southwest. An altimeter satellite pass
showed seas to 14 ft about 360 nm from Salina Cruz. Storm- force
winds are likely to diminish to gale- force this morning and
gale- force winds will continue through Thu afternoon. Strong
winds are then expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Fri. Seas will gradually subside, decreasing below 8 ft
late Fri.

Large NW swell following approaching front: A cold front is
forecast to move east of 140W Wed, and move eastward across the
waters north of 20N into Sat. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft
will follow the front over the waters north of 25N from late Wed
into Sat, with peak seas to 15 ft.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 06N100W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N100W to 10N120W to 07N135W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 06N east of
80W, and from 07N to 09N between 82W and 85W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is active from 07N to 13N between
95W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for additional
information on the Storm Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Outside of the storm and gale force gap winds off Oaxaca and the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, mostly gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas prevail over Mexican offshore waters under the
influence of the subtropical ridge, anchored by 1021 mb high
pressure near 31N125W.

For the forecast, northerly gap winds across Tehuantepec will
diminish below storm force this morning, but gale force winds
will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu.
Winds and seas will diminish further through Sat. Farther north,
a cold front will move across Baja California and the Gulf of
California late Thu through Sat. Expect fresh to strong SW gap
winds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front
Fri. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow the
front off Baja California late Thu through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Swell and moderate to locally strong N winds generated from the
storm-force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are affecting
the waters off Guatemala beyond 90 nm. This is occurring mainly
west of 92W. Farther east, fresh to locally strong easterly gap
winds and seas to 7 ft are likely occurring across the Gulf of
Papagayo, supported by high pressure building north of the area.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly breezes and moderate seas
in S swell are prevalent. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are still active along the Pacific coasts of Colombia, Panama
and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each night and
morning through late this week across the Papagayo region as a
strong high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean. Fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds will occur across and downwind of
the Gulf of Fonseca and south of El Salvador tonight into midday
Wed. Offshore of Guatemala, expect fresh to locally strong N to
NE winds and very rough seas through Wed as a significant storm
force wind event continues in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Rough
seas will expand southeastward to well offshore of El Salvador
and Guatemala today into Wed and persist through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section regarding large NW swell
following a cold front forecast to move through the region later
this week.

A 1010 mb occluded low is centered 27N140W, moving northeast at
10-15 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a
frontal boundary extending from the low pressure to 22N140W. NW
swell of 8 to 11 ft prevails mainly north of 10N and west of
125W. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are also noted on the
northern end of a trough along 120W from 10N to 15N. Farther
south, southerly swell around 8 ft was cross the Equator and
reaching as far north as 06N between 110W and 135W. Farther east,
as mentioned in the Special Features section, a plume of strong
winds and rough seas is emerging from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
area and possibly reaching as far west as 105W from 07N to 14N.
Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas primarily NW swell
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swell following the
cold front described in the Special Features section, the main
forecast issue east of 110W will be the plume of winds and swell
generated by the storm- force wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas east of
110W from 02N to 14N through mid week. The large southerly swell
will subside, but a component will mix with the swell emerging
out of Tehuantepec along with the aforementioned NW swell.

$$
Christensen