439
AXPZ20 KNHC 190253
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 84.5W from 08N northward across
portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras into the NW
Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 15 kt. Nearby Convection
is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 123W from 06N to 17N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby Convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure near
northern Colombia at 09N75.5W to across Panama to 07N90W to
08N110W to 11N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 79W and 91W,
and from 13N to 18N between 119W and 125W. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 107W
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere,
locally moderate or weaker winds continue along with seas of 4 to
6 ft in long-period southwest swell, except NW swell in the
outer Baja California offshore waters. In the Gulf of California,
moderate SE winds are over the northern Gulf N of 30N while
light to gentle winds prevail along the remainder Gulf along with
slight seas. Locally moderate NW winds are along the coastal
waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas.

For the forecast, moderate southeast winds will pulse over the
northern Gulf of California, reaching moderate to fresh speeds
Sun morning as a low pressure develops just north of the area.
Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds will then prevail
through Tue night as the low remains stationary. Pulsing fresh to
strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Wed night as a surface trough is expected to move from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz for the next several days.
Afterward, high pressure over the Gulf of America will shift
eastward, and winds in Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds. Rough seas are forecast to develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region tonight through Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail. Winds may freshen
near Baja California by mid-week as the local pressure gradient
tightens slightly.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and
The Galapagos Islands along with seas of 6 to 7 ft in south to
southwest swell. Light and variable winds are elsewhere across
the Central America offshore waters. Seas over these waters are 5
to 7 ft in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night
with periods of rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds
associated with this gap wind event will continue to affect the
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through mid-
week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue
between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Wed night
along with moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure is analyzed well northwest of the
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 20N
and 115W. A tropical waves is south of the ridge near 124W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the wave is allowing for
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to exist from north of
the monsoon trough to 19N between 115W and 140W. Seas over these
waters are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east
trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along
with 5 to 7 ft seas, locally to 8 ft near 140W in the west-
central waters. South of the monsoon, winds are moderate to
fresh and seas to 7 ft in SE swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades
will change little north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ
through early Sat, then shift to the western part of the area as
the gradient between a tropical wave and the high pressure
tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may reach around 9 ft with
the tighter gradient over the western part of the area early Sun
through Wed and with increasing winds to strong speeds. Seas will
build to around 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 105W by
early Sat through the early part of the week.

$$
Lewitsky