776
AXPZ20 KNHC 081457
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build over
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving
across the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern north
Pacific monsoon trough will usher in the next gale force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Currently, fresh to strong
winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure will
further build over eastern Mexico through the day, further
tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds to gale-
force this evening. Gale-force winds will then likely persist
through Tue evening. Very rough seas, peaking around 12 or 13
ft, are expected with this event tonight into early Tue morning
when winds may briefly reach 40 kt.

Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows
that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December.
Storm-force events occur most often in January.

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 07N97W to 12N108W to
12N118W. The ITCZ continues from 12N118W to 08N130W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 16N between 109W and 120W, and from 05N to 10N
between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.

Aside from conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a ridge
extends from a 1028 mb high centered near 36N131W across the
offshore forecast waters. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and a trough over western Mexico is supporting fresh to
locally strong winds over the Gulf of California, and gentle to
moderate winds over the waters west of the Baja California
peninsula, extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands and
eastward to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds
and moderate seas in long period NW swell are observed across
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will reach gale-force tonight through Tue night.
Occasionally fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and moderate
seas are expected in the central Gulf of California through Tue
morning. Fresh N winds may develop near Cabo Corrientes Tue
night through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 05N, with gentle to moderate
southerly winds S of 05N. Seas are mainly moderate in mixed SW
and NW swell, with exception of slight seas nearshore.

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough the next several days, except pulsing to moderate
to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo beginning early Tue. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough. Moderate N winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Panama starting Tue night. Seas
generated by a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
expected to spread across the outer offshore waters of El
Salvador and Guatemala Tue and Tue night. Otherwise, moderate
seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the regional
waters through the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1028
mb high centered near 36N131W. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near
20N. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over these waters. Moderate
winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft, prevail elsewhere over the
discussion waters.

For the forecast, little change to the synoptic pattern and
marine conditions are expected through the middle of the week. A
new set of long period NW swell is forecast to reach the NW part
of the forecast region by the middle of the week, building seas
to 8 to 9 ft over these waters before subsiding by the end of
the week.

$$
AL