494
AXPZ20 KNHC 091646
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Moderate to fresh N gap winds
this morning will quickly increase to strong speeds by this
evening and reach gale force early Mon, as a strong cold front
sweeps through the Gulf of America and high pressure builds north
of the front. A large expanse of gale force winds are expected
as far south and west as 12N98W by early Tue, and seas of 12 to
20 ft will occur near these winds. Gale force winds will prevail
through early Wed, with winds pulsing to strong to near-gale
force through Fri morning.

Large NW swell across the northwestern waters: Large NW swell,
associated with a series of cold fronts moving through the
northwestern waters, will support a wide expanse of rough seas
through early this week over much of the eastern Pacific. Seas in
excess of 8 ft will occur north of 20N and west of 130W by late
tonight, and north of 12N and west of 120W by late Mon. Very
rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected north of 25N and west of
133W this afternoon through Mon. Rough seas will slowly diminish
from north to south through midweek, with seas north of 20N
falling below 8 ft by early Wed, and south of 20N by Thu. Looking
ahead, a new NW swell will lead to rough to very rough seas over
this same region Wed night through late week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 7.5N78W to 07.5N81W to a 1011 mb
low near 12N110W to 09.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is occurring north of 04N and east of 81W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N
between 118W and 127W, and from 08N to 12N west of 124W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 16N
between 109W and 114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb low has been analyzed over northwestern Mexico near
31N113W and a surface trough extends southeastward through the
Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are noted along the trough
axis in the central and southern Gulf. Farther west, a surface
trough extends from 30N120W to 22.5N124.5W, and gentle winds are
occurring near this feature offshore of Baja California Norte.
Otherwise, weak ridging extends over the rest of the Mexico
offshore waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Residual NW
swell is leading to rough seas of 8 to 9 ft offshore of Baja and
southwestern Mexico. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail offshore of
southern Mexico, with 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning will quickly increase to strong speeds by
this evening and reach gale force early Mon, as a strong cold front
sweeps through the Gulf of America and high pressure builds north of
the front. A large expanse of gale force winds are expected as far
south and west as 12N98W by early Tue, and seas of 12 to 20 ft will
occur near these winds. Gale force winds will prevail through early
Wed, with winds pulsing to strong to near-gale force through Fri
morning. Elsewhere, rough seas offshore of Baja California and
southwestern Mexico will slowly subside from northwest to southeast
by tonight across most of these waters, though rough seas may
persist through Mon near the Revillagigedo Islands through Mon. In
the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse this
afternoon through Mon as troughing prevails over the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low
pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate NE to NW winds are occurring elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds
continue to the south. Mixed NW and SW swell are supporting 4 to
6 ft seas over the regional waters, with 7 ft seas noted south of
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo through much of this week as a cold front sweeps through
the Gulf of America and the Caribbean Sea and high pressure
builds north of the front. Winds may reach strong speeds each
night and morning by midweek. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds will be possible in the Gulf of Fonseca and south of El
Salvador Tue night into Wed. Offshore of Guatemala, expect fresh
to locally strong NE winds and very rough seas Mon night through
midweek as a significant gale force wind event occurs in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Rough seas will expand southeastward to well
offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala early Tue into Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N136W to 26N140W, extending from a
complex low pressure system centered west of British Columbia. A
second cold front resides just northwest of this front, stemming
from an intense low pressure system located offshore of the
Pacific Northwest near 46N136W. Moderate SW winds are occurring
along and to the east of the first cold front, with gentle winds
occurring to the west. A new NW swell is leading to rough seas
north of 25N and west of 135W, with 12 to 14 ft seas north of
29N and west of 138W. Ridging extends over much of the rest of
the eastern Pacific, stemming from a 1020 mb high near 34N126.5W.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds are occurring north of the
monsoon trough, with locally fresh NE winds noted in the trade
wind region. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds are occurring south
of the monsoon trough. Residual NW swell is supporting rough
seas of 8 to 10 ft east of 125W offshore of Baja California, and
over much of the waters south of 20N.

For the forecast, rough seas east of 125W will subside by this
evening, with residual rough seas prevailing from the equator to
20N early this week. Large NW swell, associated with a series of
cold fronts moving through the northwestern waters, will support
a wide expanse of rough seas through early this week over much of
the eastern Pacific. Seas in excess of 8 ft will occur north of
20N and west of 130W by late tonight, and north of 12N and west
of 120W by late Mon. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected
north of 25N and west of 133W this afternoon through Mon. A
complex low pressure system will develop early this week,
supporting fresh to strong winds in this region. Rough seas will
slowly diminish from north to south through midweek, with seas
north of 20N falling below 8 ft by early Wed, and south of 20N by
Thu. Looking ahead, a new cold front and NW swell will lead to
fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas over this same
region Wed night through late week. Looking ahead, strong E to
NE winds and rough seas generated by a gale force gap wind event
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread large NE swell into the
waters from 05N to 15N and east of 110W Mon night through Wed
before diminishing.

$$
ADAMS