356
AXPZ20 KNHC 162115
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pressure
located near 12N96W to another 1011 mb low pressure situated
near 08.5N103W to 08N111W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N111W to
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 11N between 100W and 104W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed elsewhere from 06N to 10N E OF
85W to the coast of Colombia, including also the Gulf of Panama,
from 08N to 11N between 94W and 100W, and from 06N to 10N W of
130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure located near
28N120W to 24N127W. Moderate to fresh winds are on either side of
the front N of 26N based on scatterometer data. Moderate to rough
seas are in the wake of the front. SE of this front, a dissipating
stationary front extends from the southwest of the United States
across the northern Gulf of California to near 20N125W. Moderate
to fresh SW winds, with seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted SE of the
front to near 30N in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate
NW to N winds are blowing S of the front and between Punta
Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to rough seas in NW swell
are within these winds. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are evident across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters.

For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will move across
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California tonight and Mon
with little change in winds and seas while dissipating. Another
cold front will reach the same area Mon night into Tue followed
by fresh NW winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. Winds
are forecast to increase again to fresh to strong speeds across
the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Mon night into
Tue, with seas building to 5 or 6 ft. The cold front will move
SE reaching Punta Eugenia by Tue night while gradually weakening.
It is forecast to dissipate between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San
Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate
across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through
midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle
to moderate NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to
near 87W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon
trough with gentle to moderate S to SW winds to the south of it.
Convection continues to flare-up in the nearshore and offshore
waters from Costa Rica to Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient prevails. This will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a couple of frontal boundaries are noted
across the waters N of 20N between 110W and 130W. Elsewhere N of
the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and W of 110W high pressure prevails. A
pair of weak low pressure systems of 1011 mb are seen along the
monsoon trough E of 110W. One is near 12N96W, and the other one
is near 08.5N103W. Decaying long period NW swell sustain seas
of 8 to 9 ft over much of the region north of 10N and west of
110W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, a new cold front will reach the NW waters tonight
followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional
pulses of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across
much of the waters N of 25N by Mon night, and N of 23N and E of 130W
by Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support
moderate to fresh winds in the trade wind zone toward midweek. At
that time, the high pressure center is forecast to be located over
the NW corner of the forecast area. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu.

$$
GR