005
AXPZ20 KNHC 070336
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 19.1N 108.5W at 07/0300
UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft. Abundant convection is
noted within 150 nm of the center. On the forecast track, the
center of the system is expected to move parallel to the coast of
west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur through the middle
part of this week. Strengthening is expected over the next day
or two, and Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2
hurricane before weakening begins by midweek. Swells generated
by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern
and west-central Mexico, as well as portions of the coast of the
southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.8N 120.4W at 07/0300
UTC, moving east-southeast at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 16 ft. Modest convection is
noted within 60 nm of the center. Octave is expected to continue
moving ESE during the next day or two, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast thereafter. A steady weakening trend
is expected to continue through midweek.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla and Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 13N93W, then resumes W
of T.S. Octave near 13N124W to 11N135W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident N of 08N and E of 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla.

An outer rain band associated with Priscilla extends from the
southern Gulf of California to across the southern tip of Baja
California and toward Socorro Island. This is likely bringing
very rainfall to the area around Los Cabos. Farther south,
dangerous marine conditions are impacting the waters from Jalisco
to western Guerrero and toward Socorro Island. To the north, the
pressure gradient between both hurricanes Priscilla and Tropical
Storm Octave, and a broad ridge extending SE to near 120W is
supporting moderate NW winds and moderate seas in NW swell off
Baja California. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
elsewhere in the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
a developing low pressure to the east is supporting gentle to
moderate W winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 19.8N 109.6W Tue
morning, 20.7N 110.9W Tue evening, 21.6N 112.1W Wed morning,
22.8N 113.4W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.0N
114.5W Thu morning, and 25.2N 115.1W Thu evening. Priscilla will
weaken to a tropical depression near 27.4N 115.3W by late Fri.
Farther south, strong winds and rough seas associated with the
remnant low of Octave will impact the waters south of Socorro
Island Wed night into Thu. An area of low pressure is expected to
become better organized off the southern coast of Mexico by
midweek. Gradual development of this system is likely thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of
the week while moving slowly west northwestward, near or parallel
to the coast of Mexico. This system has a high change of
tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of northern Central America. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms. North of the monsoon trough, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are noted, except moderate S to
SW winds in the Nicaragua offshore waters due to a developing low
pressure. Mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate seas
prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the N of it.
Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region bringing
moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 15.4N 119.5W Tue morning,
15.1N 118.3W Tue evening, 15.1N 116.6W Wed morning, 15.9N 114.5W
Wed evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 17.2N 111.8W
Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

$$
ERA