945
AXPZ20 KNHC 171547
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N95W to a 1011 mb
low pres near 08N105W to 08N107W. The ITCZ stretches from
08N107W to 09N125W and beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 10N west of
125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near
28N117W to 20N130W. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and
rough seas follow the front. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are
noted across the offshore waters of Baja California, and also in
the Gulf of California. Similar wind speeds are in the vicinity
of Cabo Corriente. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder
of the Mexican offshore waters. Moderate seas in NW swell are
impacting these waters, including the entrance to the Gulf of
California. Slight seas are seen in the N and central parts of
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will move across
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California today while
weakening. Another cold front will reach the same area tonight
into Tue followed by fresh NW winds and rough seas in long period
NW swell. Winds are forecast to increase again to fresh to
strong speeds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the
front tonight into Tue, with seas building to 6 or 7 ft. The
cold front will move SE reaching Punta Eugenia by Tue night while
gradually weakening. It is forecast to dissipate between Punta
Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the
front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo
San Lazaro through midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Weak high pressure north of the area continues to sustain moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the offshore
waters of Central America and NW South America.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient prevails. This will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
through Fri.  Winds may pulse to fresh speeds at night building seas
to 5 or 6 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a cold front extends from a 1012 mb low
pressure located near 28N117W to 20N130W. A second cold front
stretches from 30N124W to 28N130W to 29N140W followed by fresh to
locally strong winds and rough seas in NW swell. Elsewhere N of
the ITCZ and W of 110W high pressure prevails with a 1025 mb
center located near 35N140W. In the eastern waters, a weak low
pressure of 1011 mb situated near 08N105W along the monsoon
trough is sustaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to
7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
present.

For the forecast, the cold front over the northern waters will
move southeastward over the next few days, bringing fresh to
strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional pulses of long
period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across much of
the waters N of 25N by tonight, and N of 23N and E of 130W by
Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support
fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the trade wind zone
toward midweek. At that time, the high pressure center is
forecast to be located over the NW corner of the forecast area.
Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW
waters Wed night into Thu.

$$
GR