714
AXPZ20 KNHC 032116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 13.7N 121.7W at 03/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt, and this motion is expected
to continue through tonight. The tropical storm is expected to
slow and turn northward on Sunday, and then turn slowly eastward
early next week. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Small
fluctuations in intensity are expected today. Some additional
strengthening is possible by the end of the weekend. Peak seas
are currently around 16 ft (5 m). Numerous moderate to strong
convection is observed within 120 nm SW semicircle of center.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad low
pressure system located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N
between 105W and 108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed elsewhere from 12N to 16N between 100W and
110W. Additional development is expected, and a tropical
depression will likely form later today or tomorrow. The system
is forecast to move very slowly west- northwestward, parallel to
but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for the next
several days. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a
high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours. A Gale Warning has been issued with the 18Z forecast
package in association with this system.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml and the latest NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to a 1007 mb low pres
located near 13N104.5W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Octave
from 11N123W to 08N132W. The ITCZ continues from 08N132W to
beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Octave
and the low pressure, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection can be found from 04N to 10N E of 88W to the coast of
Colombia, from 08N to 14N between 92W and 100W, and from 19N to
22N between 105W and 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
low pressure located near 13N104.5W that has a high chance for
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds north of Cabo San
Lazaro and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo
San Lucas. Long period northerly swell continues to propagate
across the waters W of Baja California with seas of 8 to 10 ft.
Light and variable winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf of
California. Winds and seas are on increase across the Mexican
offshore forecast waters between Puerto Angel and Manzanillo due
to the presence of EP99.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting
moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle
to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas.
Long period NW swell off Baja California will support moderate
to rough seas in the outer waters through late Sat night. Marine
conditions are forecast to deteriorate across the Mexican
offshore waters S of Cabo Corrientes this weekend due to a
developing tropical cyclone. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Sat morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Unsettled weather conditions persist across the offshore waters
of Central America and Colombia. Meanwhile, a weak pressure
gradient continues to influence the region, sustaining gentle to
moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough and light to
gentle winds to the N of it. Moderate seas in SW swell dominate
the area.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough into early next week. Southerly
swell will continue to propagate across the region, with a new
set of long period SW swell reaching the Galapagos Island Sat
night into Sun. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will
persist north of the monsoon trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Octave, and on a low pressure (EP99) located
offshore of SW Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone
formation.

Outside of Octave, a cold front reaches the forecast area near
30N118W and extends SW to near 26N130W where it becomes a
stationary front to near 23N140W. Mainly moderate N to NE winds
and rough seas in NW swell follow the front. Farther south, a
surface trough is along 134W. Satellite-derived wind data show
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon
trough W of 110W. Moderate to rough seas are noted within these
winds. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Octave will move to 14.1N 122.8W
Sat morning, 14.7N 123.7W Sat afternoon, 15.2N 124.1W Sun morning,
15.6N 123.8W Sun afternoon, 15.7N 123.4W Mon morning, and 15.7N
122.5W Mon afternoon. Octave will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 15.2N 120.5W Tue afternoon. The area of NW
swell will continue to spread southward and weaken by Sun.
Meanwhile, a new set of large southerly swell will propagate
toward the equator during the weekend and into early next week.

$$
GR