818
AXPZ20 KNHC 211535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell over the northern waters:
A cold front enters the discussion waters near 30N119.5W to
25N126W to 25N140W. The front has ushered in a large set of NW
swell. Very rough seas greater than 12 ft with wave periods of
12-14 seconds will cover the northern waters N of 29N and W of
125W this morning. Seas greater than 12 ft will then shift SE
across the waters N of 26N and W of 117W through Sat before
subsiding below 12 ft. Seas will peak near 17 ft tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 07N122W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N122W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 78W and 85W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N and W of 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

A cold front is analyzed from 30N117W to 24N130W to 26N140W.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted west of the front, and fresh
SW winds prevail in the northern Gulf of California waters.
Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the rough range N of 28N while moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
Slight seas prevail over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a secondary push of cold air accompanied by an
area of low pressure will quickly follow the cold front tonight
through Sat night, generating fresh to strong NW to W winds with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of Baja
California Norte. Its associated front will usher in a set of
large NW swell, which will spread over the waters west of the
baja California peninsula, and southward to the Revillagigedo
islands through Mon before starting to subside. Fresh to strong N
gap winds can be expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Sat
night to Sun night. Elsewhere, benign marine conditions are
expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
moderate range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected
over and downstream of the Papagayo region into early next week.
Moderate or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere during the
forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

A cold front extends from 30N117W to 24N130W to 26N140W. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail N of the front. A 1032 mb high pressure
is centered near 35N141W. The pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the ITCZ to near 21N and
W of 130W. Seas over these waters are in the rough to very rough
ranges. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

The cold front will progress quickly southeastward today, and is
forecast to dissipate by Sat morning as it reaches 20N. Fresh to
strong winds north of 25N on today will diminish below fresh Sat.
Rough seas of 8 ft or greater generated from the frontal system
will propagate across the area, covering much of the discussion
waters N of 08N and W of 115W this weekend before starting to
slowly subside early next week. The area of high pressure
northwest of the discussion waters will weaken tonight and
Saturday. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the
tradewind zone, with the trades diminishing.

$$
ERA