950
AXPZ20 KNHC 220833
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell over the northern waters:
A 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 29N121W. A 1029 mb high
pressure is centered near 35N138W. The pressure gradient between
these features is supporting near gale force winds W of the low.
The low will shift further eastward while weakening slightly.
This will loosen the pressure gradient and further diminish
winds. This system has ushered in a large set of NW swell. Very
rough seas greater than 12 ft are currently N of 26N between 119W
and 132W. These rough seas will shift SE across the waters N of
25N and W of 117W today before subsiding below 12 ft tonight.
Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N95W to 10N115W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N115W to 06N126W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 84W and
90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

An area of low pressure approaching the Baja California Norte
waters is preceded by moderate to locally fresh winds. Moderate
winds are noted near the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to locally
strong winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-13 ft range W of Baja
California Norte. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6 ft range over
the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are
3 ft or less.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure will shift across the
Baja California Norte waters through tonight, generating fresh
to strong NW to W winds with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of Baja California Norte. Large NW swell
accompanying this low will spread over the waters west of the
Baja California peninsula, and southward to the Revillagigedo
Islands through Mon before starting to subside. Fresh to strong N
gap winds can be expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
Sun night. Elsewhere, benign marine conditions are expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds to locally strong are over the Papagayo region, with
moderate winds downstream of Papagayo to near 91W. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected to
pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region into early next
week, except pulsing to strong Sun night. Moderate or lighter
winds are forecast elsewhere during the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

Aside from the winds and seas associated with a low pressure
center over the northern waters, the pressure gradient between a
1029 mb high pressure centered near 35N138W and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh winds N of the
ITCZ and W of 125W. Large NW swell is propagating across the
waters N of 20N, with seas in the 8-11 ft range W of a line from
20N130W to 30N116W. Seas of 8-10 ft are also over the waters N of
the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 4-7 ft, prevail over the remainder of the discussion
waters.

The low will progress eastward into the Baja California Norte
waters today, with fresh to strong winds following the low. Rough
seas of 8 ft or greater generated from this system will
propagate across the area, covering much of the discussion waters
N of 08N and W of 115W this weekend before starting to slowly
subside early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will continue
over the waters N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W through
the middle of next week.

$$
AL