884
AXPZ20 KNHC 170915
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1012 mb low pres
near 08N105W to 08N110W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N110W to
09N127W and beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 05N to 09N and east of 88W. Similar convection is
found from 06N to 12N and west of 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a weak 1014 mb low
pressure just south of Guadalupe Island and a cold front that
extends southwestward from the low center. No significant
convection is noted near the low and cold front. Moderate to
locally fresh NW-N winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring from
the southern portion of the Gulf of Baja California to the waters
off Cabo Corrientes and also in the offshore waters of Baja
California Sur. The strongest winds are present just off Baja
California Sur. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of
2-4 ft are evident in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters.

For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will move across
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California today with
little change in winds and seas while dissipating. Another cold
front will reach the same area tonight into Tue followed by
fresh NW winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. Winds are
forecast to increase again to fresh to strong speeds across the
northern Gulf of California ahead of the front tonight into Tue,
with seas building to 5 or 6 ft. The cold front will move SE
reaching Punta Eugenia by Tue night while gradually weakening.
The front is forecast to dissipate between Punta Eugenia and Cabo
San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will
propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro
through midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Weak high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea continues to
sustain moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
across the offshore waters of Central America and NW South
America.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient prevails. This will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pres centered south
of Guadalupe Island to 22N130W. Meanwhile, another cold front has
entered the northern waters, extending from 30N131W to 29N137W to
29N140W. Winds and seas are increasing behind this boundary. The
remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is dominated by a 1024
mb high pressure system located near 30N144W that extends a weak
ridge into our waters, resulting in moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft from the ITCZ to 20N and west
of 115W. In the eastern waters, a weak low pressure along the
monsoon trough is sustaining moderate to locally fresh winds and
seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are present.

For the forecast, the cold front over the northern waters will
move southeastward over the next few days, bringing fresh to
strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional pulses of long
period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across much of
the waters N of 25N by tonight, and N of 23N and E of 130W by
Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support
fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the trade wind zone
toward midweek. At that time, the high pressure center is
forecast to be located over the NW corner of the forecast area.
Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW
waters Wed night into Thu.

$$
Delgado