366
AXPZ20 KNHC 160307
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Nov 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N97W to 06N110W. The
ITCZ stretches from 06N110W to 07N125W and beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 14N and between 92W
and 103W, and from 07N to 10N and west of 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the southwest United States to beyond
24N118W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are found behind the
front, while the NW swell result in seas of 8-11 ft across the
offshore waters of Baja California. The tight pressure gradient
across the northern Gulf of California is supporting strong to
near gale-force southerly winds and moderate seas. Farther south,
a few showers are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and offshore
waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds
and moderate seas are found in these waters. Elsewhere, moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas persist in the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the weakening cold front will slowly drift
eastward across Baja California and the Gulf of California this
evening, bringing fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas to
12 ft in NW swell to the waters off Baja California Norte. Expect
fresh to strong SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of
California ahead of the front overnight into early Sun. Looking
ahead, another frontal boundary will bring fresh NW winds and
rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters late Mon into
midweek. Winds may pulse to strong in the northern Gulf of
California late Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient persist across the offshore waters of
Central America and Colombia, sustaining moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas. Strong showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Costa Rica and Panama spill into the nearshore
waters.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
through early next week. Winds will freshen up by midweek in the
Gulf of Papagayo, while moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas are expected south of 05N.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from SW United States to 17N131W and a few
showers are noted near the southern portion of the boundary.
Moderate to occasionally strong W-NW winds are found north of
25N, while NE-E moderate to fresh winds are occurring from 10N to
20N and west of 125W. A long-period, decaying NW swell sustain
seas of 8-11 ft over much of the basin north of 10N and west of
110W. Meanwhile over the eastern waters, an elongated area of
low pressure persists along the monsoon trough between 90W and
105W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are flowing into this area,
sustaining seas of 6-9 ft seas southward to the Equator, mixing
with NW swell. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front extending from the SW
United States to the western waters will continue to move
eastward and gradually dissipate over the next day or so. The
large NW swell following the front will gradually subside as it
moves into the tropical Pacific and mixes with shorter-period
wind waves generated by moderate to fresh trade winds. Another
front is forecast to move into the waters west of Baja
California Norte early next week, followed by large NW swell
north of 25N and east of 135W. Looking ahead, a building ridge
over northern waters will support fresh to strong easterly winds
and rough seas in the trade waters west of 120W by midweek.

$$
Delgado