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Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
642 AXPZ20 KNHC 171548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event: A broad area of low pressure persists over northern Central America and southern Mexico. This weather pattern, known as a Central American Gyre (CAG), is a southwest flow that draws abundant moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain of Central America and southern Mexico. This pattern will continue at least through midweek, enhancing heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms. This can cause life-threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms have already impacted the coasts of Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. The main areas impacted by the heavy rainfall will be northwest Nicaragua, southwest Honduras, El Salvador, coastal sections of Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions will impact these coastal areas through the next few days. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the offshore waters of Mexico near 14N100W to 07N128W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N128W to 09N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed north of 10N and east of 107W. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 13N and between 109W and 119W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy rainfall. A 1025 mb high pressure system is located near 32N143W and extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the SW United States and Mexico result fresh to strong NW winds north of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Gentle to moderate NW-W winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail in the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the Gulf of California waters. The broad disturbance over SE Mexico and western Central America results in enhance SW-W flow south of 16N, producing moderate to fresh winds and seas of 7-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri, primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero. This inclement weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure over the region known as the Central American Gyre. Dangerous surf is also anticipated through Thu along the coastal areas of this region. Farther north, fresh to strong NW winds and very rough seas will persist off Baja California Norte through Tue morning, primarily beyond 120 nm offshore. Large swell of 8 to 10 ft will linger in these waters mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro through this evening before gradually subsiding through Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy rainfall. The broad disturbance in SE Mexico and western Central America continues to produce fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds along with seas at 8 to 10 ft, and widely scattered moderate convection are evident at the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh SW winds with 6 to 9 ft seas and isolated thunderstorms are occurring offshore of Nicaragua. Near the Galapagos Islands and west of Ecuador, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted. Mainly gentle southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist through Fri across the offshore waters of northern Central America, associated with a broad area of low pressure known as a Central American Gyre. Dangerous surf is also anticipated through Thu along the coastal areas of this region. Farther south, rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador through Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. A 1025 mb high pressure system near 32N143W dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. North of 20N and west of 110W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in large NW to N swell are present, except near 29N122W where winds are fresh to strong with 9 to 11 ft seas. From the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 20N and west of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell. East of 110W, SW to W winds are moderate to fresh with 6 to 9 ft seas in large SW swell. South of 07N, southerly winds are mostly gentle to moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, the high pressure and related ridge will gradually weaken starting midweek, which should allow winds and seas north of 20N to slowly subside after midweek. will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. East of 110W, SW to W winds are going to increase to between fresh to strong with seas building to between 8 and 10 ft by Tue. Scattered moderate convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough through at least midweek. Seas of 7 to 8 ft will hover around 03S west of the Galapagos Islands through Fri. $$ Delgado