858
AXPZ20 KNHC 090310
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Nov 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N gap winds
will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun before winds
quickly strengthen to gale force late Sun night, as a strong
cold front moves through the Gulf of America and strong high
pressure builds in the wake of the front. This event is expected
to produce a very large area of gale-force winds extending south
and southwestward of Tehuantepec to near 12N98W by Mon night,
with very rough seas of 12 to 18 ft expected within these winds.
Gale force winds will continue into Wed morning, with winds
pulsing to strong speeds thereafter through late next week.

Large NW swell across the northwestern waters: A cold front has
entered the far NW waters of the discussion area this evening.
The front is connected to a deep low pressure center over the NE
Pacific waters near 45N140W that is producing storm-force winds
behind it. The front will make little progress to the southeast
through Sun before weak low pressure develops along it, then
meanders in the vicinity of 28N140W through late Tue. Large NW
swell generated NW of the area will move into the far NW waters
tonight, building seas to 8 to 15 ft by morning. The area of 12
ft seas is then expected to spread southeastward from 30N132W to
24N140W by around midnight Sun night before slowly diminishing
through Tue.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 11N95W to 11.5N111W to
10N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03.5N to 08.5N east of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring from 09N to 15.5N between 107W and 113W,
and from 06.5N to 13N between 115W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 1011 mb low pres offshore of Baja
California Norte near 32N119W to 23N121W, while a second surface
trough extends along the eastern shoreline of the Gulf of
California to Las Tres Marias. The weak pressure gradient
between these features is yielding light to gentle winds across
the Baja offshore waters, except moderate N to NE winds from Cabo
San Lazaro southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Light and
variable winds are also noted inside the Gulf of California.
NW swell continues to slowly subside across the Baja waters this
evening, with seas generally 7 to 10 ft. Seas are 3 ft or less
inside the Gulf. Light to gentle NW to W winds continues
elsewhere across the Mexican waters to the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Seas across these waters are 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, rough seas in NW swell will gradually subside
from N to S across the Baja California waters and offshore of
southwestern Mexico through Sun night, diminishing to less than
8 ft by Mon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N gap winds will develop
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun before winds quickly
strengthening to gale force late Sun night, as a strong cold
front moves through the Gulf of America and strong high pressure
builds in the wake of the front. This event is expected to
produce a very large area of gale-force winds extending south and
southwestward of Tehuantepec to near 12N98W by Mon night, with
very rough seas of 12 to 18 ft expected within these winds. Gale
force winds will continue into Wed morning, with winds pulsing
to strong speeds thereafter through late next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds continue across the Papagayo region, as a
surface trough prevails in the western Caribbean. Gentle winds
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, along about 10N,
with moderate SW to W winds noted in afternoon satellite
scatterometer data to the south of the trough. Seas of 4 to 6 ft
in mixed NW and S swell are occurring over the regional waters,
with 7 ft seas noted southwest of the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered showers and isolated mild thunderstorms are along the
west coast of Colombia and spread northward into the Gulf of
Panama.

For the forecast, moderate NE gap winds will pulse to fresh at
night across the Papagayo region through early Tue, then increase
to fresh to strong throughout the remainder of the week, as a
strong cold front moves into the NW Caribbean Sea, and strong high
pressure builds in the wake of the front. Fresh N winds may
briefly occur in the Gulf of Fonseca and offshore of El Salvador
by midweek. Farther west, moderate to fresh NE winds and building
seas are expected offshore of Guatemala Mon night through
midweek as a significant gale-force gap wind event occurs in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1016 mb surface high is centered north of the area near
35N126W, and extends a weak ridge southward across the northern
waters north of 20N between 120W and 140W. A cold front has
entered the NW waters in recent hours, and extends from 30N138.5W
to beyond 29N140W, stemming from a strong complex low pressure
system centered near 45N140W. The increasing pressure gradient
between these ridge and the front is leading to fresh to strong
SW winds north of 27N and west of 135W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring along and within 90 nm of the front,
producing winds to near gale-force as indicated by afternoon
satellite scatterometer data. Recent altimeter and SOFAR buoy
data show 8 to 12 ft seas in this region. To the east, a surface
trough extends from offshore of southern California to 23N122W,
with moderate N winds occurring west of the trough to 125W and
north of 28N. Seas remain 8 to 9 ft across this area. Farther
south, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon
trough is producing moderate to fresh trade winds north of the
monsoon trough to 18N. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted
to the south of the trough. Widespread rough seas of 8 to 11 ft
were indicated via recent altimeter data over much of the
eastern Pacific waters W of 110W, with NW swell dominating north
of 05N, and mixed NW and SW swell farther south.

For the forecast, widespread rough seas in NW swell will slowly
subside north of 20N, away from the far northwest waters, through
Sun, and south of 20N through early next week. A cold front
across the northwestern waters this evening will meander across
the area through Tue, with fresh to strong SW winds occurring
north of 25N and west of 135W ahead of the front. A complex low
pressure system will evolve over this region early next week,
leading to fresh to strong winds surrounding the low. New NW
swell will propagate southeastward in this area tonight through
early next week, with rough seas expected north of 20N and west
of 130W by late Sun, and north of 12N and west of 120W by late
Mon. Seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to cover the area
north of 24N and west of 132W Sun into Tue. Looking ahead,
strong E to NE winds and rough seas generated by a gale force gap
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread large NE swell
into the waters from 05N to 15N and east of 110W Mon night
through Wed before diminishing.

$$
Stripling