815
AXPZ20 KNHC 040956
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 04 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in
southeastern Mexico is bringing gale-force gap winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region. Rough to very rough seas are occurring with
these winds, with peak wave heights at around 18 ft (5.5 m). The
gale winds will continue into late tonight, then become strong
to near gale force winds that will gradually diminish to fresh
speeds early Thu evening. Rough seas in north to northeast swell
are expected to spread south-southwestward to near 09N106W by
early on Wed.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia west-
southwestward to northern Panama and continues to 07N90W and
northwestward to 08N96W to 08N105W to 10N112W to low pressure
near 09.5N119W 1013 mb and to 08N128W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues to 08N128W and to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm
north of the trough between 123W-126W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 95W-98W, and within 60
nm south of the trough between 110W-112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event that is forecast
to end late tonight.

Long-period northwest swell is moving through the offshore
waters of Baja California. Latest altimeter satellite data passes
indicates seas of 8 to 10 ft over these waters, with the highest
of the seas north of about 26N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft due to the
northwest swell are southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California peninsula. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across
the region is allowing for moderate or lighter northwest to north
winds and moderate seas, except for slight seas in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, the long-period northwest swell will gradually
subside through Tue. A second set of large northwest swell is
forecast to enter the waters N of Punta Eugenia late Thu, and
spread through the remainder offshore waters of Baja California
through Fri night, then begin to slowly subside Sat into Sat night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong to northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region along with seas of 5 to 7 ft while generally
gentle to moderate southwest to west winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are elsewhere per latest scatterometer and altimeter satellite
data passes.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Gulf of Panama,
and isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted downwind from
there to near 04N. Similar activity is noted over the regional
waters south of El Salvador.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap
winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Wed morning.
The Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to bring moderate
north to northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in the far
western offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed
morning. Afterward, rather calm marine conditions are expected
through the remainder of the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure remains the main feature over the eastern Pacific
subtropical waters. A trough is analyzed from near 15N119W to
a weak 1013 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near
09.5N119W as detected by an overnight scatterometer satellite
data pass and noted on satellite imagery. The scatterometer data
indicates moderate to fresh northeast winds from 12N to 17N
between 118W and 124W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 9 ft in
long-period northwest swell per an overnight scatterometer
satellite data pass. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are to the northeast of the trough from 13N to 16N
between 113W and 119W.

Long-period northwest swell is moving through the waters, most
specifically north of about 10N and and west of 115W. Overnight
scatterometer satellite data passes reveal seas of 8 to 9 ft in
long-period northwest swell over these waters. Otherwise, the
gradient in place is allowing for moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas elsewhere north and south of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough west of 105W as noted in the most recent altimeter
satellite data passes over these waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure will be nudged east-
southeastward through Thu by a cold front that will be moving
across the northwest part of the area beginning this evening.
This front will be preceded by fresh to strong southwest to west
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft. The front is forecast to begin to
weaken as it reaches a position from 30N130W to 27N140W by
early Wed evening. At that time, winds near the front will be
light and variable. The present northwest swell will gradually
subside through tonight, however, a rather extensive set of long-
period swell is expected to begin moving through the northwest
forecast waters beginning on Wed, with wave model guidance
suggesting seas in the range of 10 to 15 ft in the far northwest
part of the area at that time.

$$
Aguirre