Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
500 WTPZ45 KNHC 070239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025 Satellite imagery shows a compact tropical cyclone with a burst of deep convection that has redeveloped over and north of the low-level circulation center after briefly diminishing earlier today. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 3.0/45 kt, and objective intensity estimates range from 34 to 45 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 110 degrees, at around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue through Tuesday as the storm moves on the southern periphery of a mid- to upper-level trough extending west-southwestward off the U.S. West Coast, and south of a much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward well to the east. A gradual turn back toward the east is forecast late Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by a northeastward acceleration by Thursday as Octave begins to interact with and ultimately becomes absorbed by Priscilla. This forecast track lies slightly to the right or south of the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend of the consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance. Given Octaves compact structure, the system may be able to maintain its structure and intensity for another day or so before succumbing to the increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and dry mid-level air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter, and Octave is expected to dissipate by Thursday as it becomes absorbed within Priscillas larger circulation. The new intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance for the next day or so, then trends toward the middle portion of the guidance envelope thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.8N 120.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 15.4N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 15.1N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 15.1N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)