195
FNUS74 KEPZ 151900
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Bue 2 fire...USFA
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
100 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on June 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Conditions will be quiet for the rest of today. Tonight recovery
will be fair. For Sunday, dry weather will be in place. The 20ft
winds will be generally light and from the southwest with the
temperature above the average. Sunday overnight recovery will be
poor. For Monday, dry conditions will continue. The 20ft winds
will be become breezy in the afternoon with the temperatures near
the normal. The ventilation rates will be very good on Sunday,
then excellent on Monday. Conditions may improve on Thursday with
a chance for showers and thunderstorms. With that said, the fire
weather conditions will be near critical Sunday through Tuesday
with no concerns for the rest of the period.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......12600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (136400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      3      5      25     25     19
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............63     71     81     84     85     87
RH..............27     23     16     14     13     10
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   SW 8   SW 8   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.12     12     16     20     20     22
Mix hgt (ft)....6600   6600   12500  12500  12600  12600
Transport wind..SW 9   SW 9   SW 10  SW 10  SW 12  SW 12
Haines index....6      6      6      6      6      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46     46     117    117    136    136
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 18 mph
                    in the evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (127700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (8600 knot-ft) in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........11     11     11     8      8      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............85     77     71     68     65     61
RH..............9      12     14     15     17     20
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 8   SW 9   SW 8   SW 8   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.22     22     21     21     21     16
Mix hgt (ft)....10600  10600  700    700    700    700
Transport wind..SW 16  SW 16  SW 18  SW 18  W 10   W 10
Haines index....6      6      6      6      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..128    128    11     11     9      9
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 32 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......9900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 11 mph increasing to 23 to 29
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (90200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (219700 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........4         3         5         6
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............60        74        84        86
RH..............22        15        12        10
20 FT wind......SW 6G15   SW 8G23   SW 12G30  SW 13G32
Mix hgt (ft)....6400      6400      9900      9900
Transport wind..SW 11     SW 11     SW 23     SW 29
Haines index....5         5         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..90        90        220       252
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph.
.JUNETEENTH...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...ICT4 (t)
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416173.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thomas.goetz@usda.gov