Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
734 FXUS64 KEWX 232359 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 559 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over the Coastal Plains east of the Austin area Monday afternoon. - Locally heavy rain possible in thunderstorms. - Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving, with patchy morning freezes possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 An upper level low is centered over Arizona with a ridge to the east extending from the Gulf to the central Great Plains. At the surface, a stationary front is stretched across South Texas south of our CWA. High pressure behind the front has the winds turning from east-northeasterly to southeasterly across South-Central Texas. While the surface dewpoints remain mainly in the 50s, the morning sounding from DRT shows a saturated layer above the boundary layer. There has been enough lift in this layer to produce some showers and a few thunderstorms this morning. The upper ridge over the plains will force the low to move toward the northeast into the central Plains tonight and tomorrow. At the same time a Pacific cold front will move into Texas and through our CWA. Models have decreased rain chances for tonight to 20%-40% with the higher chances across the north. With the lowest layer of the atmosphere so dry, rainfall amounts, outside of thunderstorms, will be light tonight. Better chances for rain will come Monday when the front moves through. Again the better ingredients for showers and thunderstorms will be across the north. Rainfall amounts will be moderate outside of thunderstorms. Speaking of thunderstorms, there is a chance that some storms may be strong to severe over the eastern portion of the CWA. The primary threat will be large hail. SPC has included a small part of our CWA, parts of Williamson, Lee, and Fayette Counties, in the Level 2 (Slight) of 5 risk for Monday afternoon. The front will move off the east Monday night taking rain chances with it. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 High pressure will settle in for the second half of the week. This will bring dry weather for Wednesday through Friday. Cooler air will also move in and it may actually feel like fall for a few days. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with lows from the 30s to 50s. Thanksgiving morning looks to be the coolest of the week and while yesterday it looked there could be some spots reaching freezing, today lows came in a few degrees warmer. We still wouldn`t completely rule a freeze. An upper level shortwave trough will move into the region for next weekend bringing the next chance for rain. At this time it looks like the best chances will be over the eastern half of the area where moisture will be deepest. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 MVFR cigs are forecast for the local area terminals through late this evening and then IFR cigs are forecast to develop between 04Z and 09Z Monday for the Austin, San Antonio, and Del Rio sites. There maybe some drizzle Monday morning across the I-35 Corridor before that activity changes to showers. Can`t rule out a thunder or two mid/late afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast to begin out west over KDRT and the expand eastward into the I-35 Corridor airports as a Pacific front pushes across the local area. The winds are forecast to stay from the east and southeast across the local area sites this evening through Monday morning. As the boundary pushes to the east, the wind shifts to the northwest with speeds of 8 to 12 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 80 56 79 / 30 80 30 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 81 53 79 / 30 80 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 81 55 81 / 30 60 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 74 51 75 / 40 80 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 81 52 80 / 30 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 78 51 76 / 30 80 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 78 50 82 / 20 60 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 82 53 81 / 30 70 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 83 58 79 / 20 80 70 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 80 56 81 / 20 50 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 82 57 83 / 20 40 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...17