Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
571 FXUS64 KEWX 301151 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 551 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - The cold front is moving across the Hill Country with a few showers along and behind it, however, showers and thunderstorms activity is forecast to grow as it approaches the Coastal Plains after midnight Sunday. - There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms mainly for the overnight hour as the front pushes down into the Coastal Plains. Better chances for this to occur are along and east of Highway 77. - Breezy and wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph (medium to high confidence) are forecast in the wake of the front and could last through midday Sunday with wind gust values down to 20 to 30 mph range for the afternoon - A cold airmass follows the frontal passage with temperatures dropping to the upper 30s, 40s, and lower 50s with wind chill values in the upper 20s and mid 30s for portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and along the I-35 Corridor from Georgetown to Austin to San Marcos to New Braunfels && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1004 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The anticipated cold front is quickly moving across the Hill Country as of 10 PM and forecast to continue to push to the southeast and exit South Central Texas overnight between 4 and 5 AM. Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible and capable of producing large hail of one in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph. With pwats in the 1.2 to 1.5 inches based on hires guidance, a few spots could get 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with localized up to 3 inches mainly over portions of Fayette, Gonzales, Lavaca, and DeWitt Counties. In the wake of the front, a cold air mass spreads across the local area with breezy north winds and gusts of 35 to 45 mph. By daybreak, the cold air mass has spread across South Central Texas with lows in the upper 30s, 40s and lower 50s. However, the breezy north winds are forecast to help the wind chill values to reach the upper 20s and mid 30s over portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and portions of the I-35 corridor. The cold airmass stays over the local area with Sunday`s highs only reaching the mid 40s to mid 50s under cloudy skies. No rain is forecast for most of the day on Sunday, however, isolated showers and storms could return for the Coastal Plains area during the evening and overnight period as a frontal boundary sits along the middle Texas coast. Overnight/early Monday morning lows are forecast to range from the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country to mid 40s across the Coastal Plains. A cool day is in store for South Central Texas on Monday with highs in the mid 40s over the eastern half of the local area and 50s for the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande areas. Scattered showers are forecast for areas mainly along and east of Highway 281 as abundant moisture remains over that area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1004 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The cool air stays in place through the middle of the week with dry weather forecast for Tuesday and most of Wednesday before a second push of a cold airmass and rain chances arrive Wednesday night into Thursday. A wet pattern remains through Friday with a dry weekend and warmer temperatures in store with highs back into the mid to upper 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 TAF periods are more simplified with the strong surface and low level winds behind the cold front. Blustery winds with gusts as highs as 32 knots could affect AUS through midday with slightly lower winds affecting SAT/SSF. DRT winds should be considerably lower with the winds mixing with topographic obstructions near the surface. Very light radar echoes are occurring over the region and this is suggested to continue into the end of the TAF periods. However, model run-to-run trends have been going drier and the dry low level air plus wind mixing should minimize any precipitation impacts at least for TAF considerations. Persistent isentropic lift and the weakening of this first wave of surface ridging in later periods could see the persistent VFR CIGs work back down to MVFR. We`ll show that category to persist in the later periods since models are decreasing the influence of the early Monday shortwave moving through South TX while maintaining light overrunning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 50 40 50 38 / 0 20 40 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 50 40 50 36 / 10 20 40 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 51 40 52 38 / 0 30 40 10 Burnet Muni Airport 47 38 50 35 / 0 10 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 54 45 61 44 / 10 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 49 39 50 34 / 0 20 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 54 41 55 38 / 10 20 30 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 51 40 52 37 / 0 30 40 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 51 40 50 38 / 10 40 60 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 52 43 53 41 / 0 20 40 10 Stinson Muni Airport 54 44 53 42 / 10 30 40 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...18