Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
046 FXUS64 KEWX 081125 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 525 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog possible early this morning near Coastal Plains - Very warm today, though just short of record highs - Strong cold front tonight brings breezy to windy conditions, much cooler temperatures, and near-critical to critical fire weather conditions - Light freezes possible Monday and Tuesday across portions of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and low lying spots along the I-35 and US 90 Escarpment && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 A weak "cold" front continues to drift to the southeast and will confine the shallow lower level moisture to near the Coastal Plains this morning. Patchy dense fog can be expected early this morning across that area. Only slight "cold" advection is noted behind the front keeping highs today a little "cooler" than the record breaking daily and monthly values of Friday. However, they will still be well above average. An abrupt change is expected this evening into the overnight hours as a strong cold front makes its way across our area. Although, a drop in temperatures will be noted immediately with its passage, lows remain above average. Strong cold advection on Sunday keeps highs below average. As strong surface high pressure spills south over the Plains states, a tight pressure gradient and mixing with stronger winds aloft results in breezy to windy northerly flow with sustained speeds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts up to 40+ mph. A Wind Advisory may be needed for some areas with the I-35 corridor the most favored area due the funneling effect along it. A much drier airmass filters into our area resulting in critical fire weather conditions. See the Fire Weather section below for more details. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 Continued cold advection will result in even colder, well below average temperatures going into Monday and Monday night. Patchy freezes are expected early Monday and Tuesday mornings with the favored areas being portions of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and low lying spots along the Escarpment of I-35 and US 90. Freeze Warnings may be needed for the areas mentioned above. Although winds will decrease and become light to calm as high pressure settles over the area, wind chills in the 20s are possible during the early morning hours. Surface high pressure moves off to the east on Tuesday allowing a southerly flow to take hold and bring a warming and moistening trend for the remainder of next week. Above average temperatures with a pattern of overnight into morning low clouds mixing to afternoon sun is expected Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 An area of low stratus and fog has developed well east of the I-35 corridor, near and southeast of a K3T5-K2R9 line, producing IFR to LIFR conditions. This area of low clouds and fog will advect toward the coast through 15Z and eventually mix out. Otherwise, VFR conditions under clear skies for most of the region, including the I-35 corridor. A strong cold front will move through the region late Saturday night, with gusty north winds developing behind it. Gusts 20-30KT are forecast across much of the region 06Z-12Z Sunday, increasing to 25-35KT 12Z-18Z Sunday across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 Minimum humidities in the upper teens to 20s are expected this afternoon, however wind speeds below 10 mph will mitigate any fire weather conditions. This changes on Sunday due to strong northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40+ mph and minimum humidities in the teens to lower 20s. These values combined with high to extreme fire danger and dry, mostly drought cured fuels create critical fire weather conditions. The Fire Weather Watch will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning later today for our entire area. Little change in minimum humidities is expected on Monday. Although, winds will be decreasing during the day and especially in the afternoon, they will be high enough for elevated to possibly near critical fire weather conditions. Southerly flow resumes on Tuesday, however moisture return will be slower keeping minimum humidities the upper teens to 20s. As a result, near critical to possibly patchy critical fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 87 56 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 55 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 56 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 84 52 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 88 58 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 54 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 89 57 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 56 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 56 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 58 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 89 60 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...76