Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
168 FXUS64 KEWX 011823 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1223 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind chills in the mid 20s and low 30s Tuesday morning for most of South-Central Texas outside of the Rio Grande Plains. - Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) of a freeze Tuesday morning for portions of the I-35 corridor north of the Austin area and portions of the Hill Country with 29 to 32 degree temperatures. - Drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday followed by increasing rain chances Thursday and Friday. Cool weather continues through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Cloudy skies continue over most of the area, particularly east of the Edwards Plateau, as isentropic lift spreads moisture aloft north of a coastal low now receding from the Texas coast. Rainfall has been generally sprinkly and should stay that way as the elevated convergence band associated with the coastal low has remained just out of our CWA. The cloudmass and its rains should shift east and vacate most of the area in the evening and overnight. A west-to-east drying trend is beginning as a shortwave trough passes to the north, bringing a westerly flow aloft that is helping to clear out cloud cover. This trend should continue tonight while surface high pressure moves south and brings a shot of reinforcing cold with a slight uptick in north winds, especially over the Coastal Plains where gusts up to around 20-25 mph are forecast this evening into early Tuesday morning. Cloud coverage has trended downward for tonight with a trailing mid-level vorticity maximum looking less robust, and this should allow for a more efficient combination of both cold air advection and radiational cooling. A light freeze is anticipated for portions of the Hill Country and areas north of Austin with the best chances (a 50 to 80 percent chance) for Burnet, Gillespie, Llano, and western Williamson counties. The coldest lows are forecast to mostly be in the 30 to 32 degree range with a few colder spots making it into the upper 20s. Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s are forecast for the remainder of South-Central Texas. With the northerly wind, wind chills ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s are forecast for much of South-Central Texas aside from the Rio Grande Plains, most prominently right around sunrise. Mostly sunny weather is expected Tuesday as the area briefly finds itself under zonal flow aloft. Despite the sunshine, the lack of warmer air aloft suggests temperatures may only mix into the upper 50s and low 60s. Tuesday night should be another cool night, though gradual airmass modification and the return of southerly winds and clouds leads to forecast lows in the upper 30s to low 40s with very low chances (less than 10 percent) of freezing. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response to an amplifying trough over the western US on Wednesday as the subtropical and southern branch polar jet begin to phase over the central US. This should make Wednesday the warmest day of the week, though the day is still forecast to remain seasonable with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Although the orientation of the jet stream over our area midweek would typically discourage cold air intrusions, a cold airmass drawn southward by a brief window of meridional flow over the Canadian Shield is expected to carry enough momentum to make it into our area. Models have come into better agreement in depicting the cold front at the leading edge of this airmass reaching South-Central Texas around Wednesday night to Thursday morning. The front is less likely to be as dramatic as the one from this past Sunday, but is forecast to maintain the cool fall weather to end the workweek with highs generally in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s for most. Concurrent with the front, divergence should increase across the area Thursday to Friday with opportunities for upper-air disturbances rippling along the overhead jet stream. While this generally leads to an increase in rain chances, the frontal timing will likely be pivotal... a faster front could end up muting rain intensities and coverage for much of the region by maintaining a drier layer of near-surface air. There is also considerable uncertainty of whether a cut-off low over the Pacific gets pulled into the region, which would affect moisture levels. For now, medium chances (30 to 60 percent) are carried for South-Central Texas Thursday/Friday, with better chances over the Coastal Plains. The longwave synoptic pattern dominating CONUS for the week starts to shift a little more to the east over the weekend into next week. A slight warming trend is possible this weekend as zonal flow briefly reestablishes, but the northwesterly flow on the rear side of the longwave trough could set up an additional opportunity for another cold front entering next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 In the Austin and San Antonio areas, there is a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings and reduced visibility in light rain and fog. These conditions will continue for the next two to three hours. Later this afternoon conditions will recover to VFR and clouds will scattered later tonight. Winds will be generally from the north at less than 10 kts. The ceiling at DRT is VFR. Clouds will scatter later this afternoon with a wind shift to the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 35 58 42 67 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 34 58 38 65 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 36 58 40 65 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 32 56 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 43 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 32 57 39 70 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 35 61 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 34 59 39 66 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 34 56 39 64 / 10 0 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 37 60 43 66 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 38 60 43 66 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...05