Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
516 FXUS64 KEWX 090607 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1207 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong cold front brings breezy to windy conditions, much colder temperatures, and near-critical to critical fire weather conditions - Light freezes around sunrise across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country on Monday, then low lying spots along and southeast of the I-35 and US 90 corridors on Tuesday - Warm again mid week into next weekend && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 The much advertised cold front is entering the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. It will plow through the remainder of South Central Texas in the next few hours. This will bring an abrupt change from the near record to record heat of Friday and Saturday. Strong cold advection takes hold a few hours after frontal passage with high temperatures slightly below average today. Then, the bottom drops out with temperatures well below average tonight into Monday. Patchy freezes are expected across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country at sunrise on Monday. A Freeze Warning may be needed if the freeze potential becomes more widespread. As strong surface high pressure spills south over the Plains states, a tight pressure gradient and mixing with stronger winds aloft results in breezy to windy northerly flow with sustained speeds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts up to 40+ mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for I-35 corridor where the strongest winds will be found due the funneling effect there. The combination of winds and cold temperatures will result in wind chills in the 20s in spots late tonight into early Monday morning. As the pressure gradient weakens, wind speeds decrease on Monday. A much drier airmass filters into our area resulting in critical fire weather conditions today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of South Central Texas. See Fire Weather section below for the details. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Surface high pressure settles over our area late Monday, then begins to shift to the east Monday night. Nearly ideal radiational cooling due to light winds, low dewpoints, and clear skies is expected, especially across our eastern areas. Patchy freezes are expected across low lying spots along and southeast of the I-35 and US 90 corridors at sunrise on Tuesday. A Freeze Warning may be needed for those areas. Lows across the higher terrain of the Edwards Plateau will be warmer due to the return of southerly flow. Although winds become light most areas as high pressure settles in, wind chills in the 20s in spots are expected late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure moves to the east on Tuesday allowing a southerly flow to take hold and bring a warming and moistening trend for the remainder of next week into next weekend. Above average temperatures return. The passage of an upper level trough and Pacific front brings slight chances of showers next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Some low stratus and fog is developing across the Coastal Plains, south of T20, and was producing IFR to LIFR conditions. This will be advected south, away from the region, overnight with the passage of a cold front. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few mid level clouds and high cirrus are indicated to develop across the area 09Z-18Z, then gradually shift east. A cold from will move north to south through the area 06Z-10Z. NNW to NNE winds will develop behind the front, initially sustained 10-20KT with gusts to around 25 KT, then increasing 12Z-16Z to 20-25KT with gusts around 30KT across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. After 00Z Monday winds are forecast to decrease to 5-10KT along the Rio Grande and to 10-15KT across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Strong northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40+ mph and minimum humidities in the teens to lower 20s combined with high to extreme fire danger and dry drought cured fuels create critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of South Central Texas for today. While little change in minimum humidities is expected on Monday, winds will be decreasing during the day. However, they will remain high enough into the afternoon at time of lowest humidity for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions east of the I-35 corridor to near the Coastal Plains. Southerly flow resumes on Tuesday, however moisture return will be slower keeping minimum humidities in the upper teens to 20s. Near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday. There are potentials for Fire Danger statements or Red Flag Warnings for Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 35 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 64 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 43 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 34 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 37 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 35 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 36 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 37 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 73 39 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ173-191>194- 204>208-219>221. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...76