Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
633 FXUS64 KEWX 231834 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over the Coastal Plains east of the Austin area Monday afternoon. - Locally heavy rain possible in thunderstorms. - Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving, with patchy morning freezes possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 An upper level low is centered over Arizona with a ridge to the east extending from the Gulf to the central Great Plains. At the surface, a stationary front is stretched across South Texas south of our CWA. High pressure behind the front has the winds turning from east-northeasterly to southeasterly across South-Central Texas. While the surface dewpoints remain mainly in the 50s, the morning sounding from DRT shows a saturated layer above the boundary layer. There has been enough lift in this layer to produce some showers and a few thunderstorms this morning. The upper ridge over the plains will force the low to move toward the northeast into the central Plains tonight and tomorrow. At the same time a Pacific cold front will move into Texas and through our CWA. Models have decreased rain chances for tonight to 20%-40% with the higher chances across the north. With the lowest layer of the atmosphere so dry, rainfall amounts, outside of thunderstorms, will be light tonight. Better chances for rain will come Monday when the front moves through. Again the better ingredients for showers and thunderstorms will be across the north. Rainfall amounts will be moderate outside of thunderstorms. Speaking of thunderstorms, there is a chance that some storms may be strong to severe over the eastern portion of the CWA. The primary threat will be large hail. SPC has included a small part of our CWA, parts of Williamson, Lee, and Fayette Counties, in the Level 2 (Slight) of 5 risk for Monday afternoon. The front will move off the east Monday night taking rain chances with it. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 High pressure will settle in for the second half of the week. This will bring dry weather for Wednesday through Friday. Cooler air will also move in and it may actually feel like fall for a few days. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with lows from the 30s to 50s. Thanksgiving morning looks to be the coolest of the week and while yesterday it looked there could be some spots reaching freezing, today lows came in a few degrees warmer. We still wouldn`t completely rule a freeze. An upper level shortwave trough will move into the region for next weekend bringing the next chance for rain. At this time it looks like the best chances will be over the eastern half of the area where moisture will be deepest. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 MVFR ceilings and easterly winds along with light rain showers are the primary issues this afternoon through early evening before ceilings tank to low MVFR and even IFR for a period of time through Monday morning. A frontal boundary will move through early to late Monday afternoon, resulting in a switch in wind direction and -SHRA through late afternoon/early evening Monday. VFR ceilings should return after 00Z tomorrow, just beyond this forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 80 56 79 / 30 80 30 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 81 53 79 / 30 80 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 81 55 81 / 30 60 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 74 51 75 / 40 80 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 81 52 80 / 30 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 78 51 76 / 30 80 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 78 50 82 / 20 60 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 82 53 81 / 30 70 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 83 58 79 / 20 80 70 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 80 56 81 / 20 50 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 82 57 83 / 20 40 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...MMM