Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
044 FXUS64 KEWX 241150 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 550 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over the Coastal Plains east of the Austin area Monday afternoon to evening, with large hail the primary severe hazard. - Locally heavy rain possible in thunderstorms through Monday. - Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving, with patchy morning freezes possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Main focus in the short term is on a Pacific front that will move east across South-Central Texas Monday, accompanied by a line of showers and storms whose southern end dips into our area. The front is forecast to move across the southern Edwards Plateau during the early morning, reaching the Hill Country by about mid to late morning and then pushing across the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains in the afternoon and evening. Before the front arrives, steady northward advection of moisture and a thickening stratus deck will likely produce some mist and reduced visibilities overnight, especially at higher elevations. Our region is expected to be offset from the strongest forcing and remains located under higher convective inhibition. Thus, overall rain coverage is expected to be more sparse than areas farther north closer to San Angelo and Waco, especially during the morning hours. Latest CAM simulated reflectivities across the board have depicted a narrow and generally muted band of moderate showers with isolated lightning activity during the morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. That said, the atmosphere is still supportive of an isolated stronger to possibly severe storm (with large hail the primary severe hazard) should an updraft sustain over these areas this morning, and regional soils remain sensitive following last week`s rains. Rain and storm chances increase heading into the afternoon mainly over the Coastal Plains starting near the Austin area as the front encounters warmer and less stable air, supporting a southward buildup of storm activity. A few storms could be strong to severe. The SPC continues to highlight a portion of the CWA mainly east of I-35 and north of US-290 under a Level 2 (Slight) of 5 risk for severe weather Monday. The primary severe threat is large hail, though a low chance for a brief isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. The front is expected to exit the Coastal Plains Monday night, though a few light post-frontal showers could linger into Tuesday morning before fading away. A much drier and slightly cooler airmass will spread across the area behind the front, allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s for most of South-Central Texas with some dips into the upper 40s over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau pre-dawn Tuesday. Dry and sunny conditions will allow the anomalous warmth still residing aloft to mix to the surface, leading to a warm Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 A surge of colder air is forecast to arrive from the north Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold-core high pressure region sloshes across the central and southern US, delivering much more fall-like weather. Highs Wednesday could stay in the 60s across most of the region despite clear skies. Wednesday may also be quite breezy as the tight pressure gradient associated with the cooler airmass moves across the area. Wind speeds could reach the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts up to 35 mph, making for a brisk autumn day. Thanksgiving morning will likely be the coldest part of this brief cooler stretch. GEFS and ENS ensemble temperatures and some of the statistical guidance have become a little more mild. Considering the typical difficulties these models have with handling airmasses like this one, I would still lean towards cooler values. Patchy freezes remain a possibility for the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, with the latest forecast lows ranging from the 30s north of I-10 to the 40s in urban locales and areas southward. At this range, Thanksgiving Day looks about as seasonable as one could expect, bringing sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to low 70s right around average. Ridging over the Beaufort Sea and northern Pacific is expected to come into phase at the end of the week, resulting in amplified troughing over the western US heading into the weekend. This forces the jet stream to flex southward into our area, leading to a warming and moistening trend to end the week. Our next potential rainmaking disturbance could come in the form of a shortwave embedded within the broader troughing. This general setup leads to an increase in rain chances this weekend, mainly towards the east, though the window of opportunity for rain is very broad and ill-defined this far out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A small cluster of convection is moving toward SAT/SSF and in just the past 15 minutes has begun producing isolated thunder. We may have to add a brief tempo thunder in the next hour or two at either or both sites, but will work with SHRA as PROB30/TEMPO groups. There are also formidable streamer showers moving into AUS where a TEMPO group is warranted over the next few hours. High- res models continue to depict AUS as the best chance of seeing lightning as the front arrives, but will also occasionally show an isolated convective cell closer to SAT/SSF. Overall, coverage looks light in that area and will just go with VCSH until drier air arrives behind the front in the late afternoon. Model timing of the front remains on the slow side, and this could lead to a need to add a few more low CIG hours at DRT through up to 15Z. Most TAF site CIGs are already trending toward MVFR, but a brief IFR CIG is still possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 55 79 51 / 60 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 53 78 49 / 60 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 54 81 51 / 40 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 51 75 46 / 70 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 52 80 53 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 52 76 47 / 70 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 50 83 51 / 40 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 53 81 50 / 50 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 58 79 51 / 70 40 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 55 82 53 / 40 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 57 83 55 / 30 10 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...18