Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
016 FXUS64 KEWX 172349 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 649 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm afternoon highs continue through early next week with mostly dry weather. - Brief cooldown for Sunday and especially Sunday night - Slight chances (10-20%) of rain forecast for the Coastal Plains along the US Highway 77 corridor Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 For this afternoon expect another warm day for October standards with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. A trough out west looks to impact our region for tonight acting to increase moisture across the area. As a result expect tonight to be more on the muggy side compared to the last previous evenings. Saturday highs should increase a few degrees with many areas hitting the low to mid 90s. There also is a very small chance less than 20% for some rain across the Coastal Plains and far northern Hill Country (Best chances along and north of a Marble Falls to Austin to La Grange line) as a weak cool front approaches our area. HiRes models seem to agree with this with the majority not showing much if any rain at all as the better forcing will be towards our north and west across north and eastern TX. Any rain that does manage to fall will be light and likely a quarter of an inch or less. Most of the precip should be scoured out before midnight once the weak front passes leading to cooler low temps for Saturday night. Lows across the Hill Country could drop into the upper 50s while those south of I-35 Corridor will likely not feel the impacts of the front quite as fast with lows remaining in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Sunday looks to be a different story as temps should struggle to reach the 90s with a somewhat strong and breezy north to northeast wind and drier humidity values. Those along and north of the I-35 Corridor including the Hill Country are expected to remain in the low 80s while those south should reach the upper 80s. In fact due to the very low RH values, dry conditions, lack of recent rainfall, and some dry fuels we could see an elevated risk for wildfires for Sunday. By sunday night the winds will have relaxed allowing our coldest night of the fall season to commence. Some areas in the Coastal Plains and northern I-35 Corridor could see low temps in the lower 50s to even upper 40s. Everywhere else should see temps only dipping into the upper 50s to around 60 with warmer lows expected the further west and south one goes. Definitely keep a jacket handy if going out. These cold temps don`tlast long as upper level ridging reestablishes itself come monday with highs once again in the low 90s with moisture increasing due to the switch back to southeasterly winds. Tuesday looks to be a touch cooler as another weak and mostly dry front impacts the area. High temps for the remainder of the week should remain in the upper 80s to low 90s with dry weather continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR continues this evening before widespread low cloud development takes place during the early morning hours on Saturday. Some minor changes were made to the I-35 sites, mainly for a little earlier start time of MVFR cigs and a slight lowering of cloud bases. We also opted to add a mention of a TEMPO group to KSAT between 10-13Z for IFR conditions based on the latest guidance. We also added a TEMPO group to DRT for some MVFR cigs around sunrise. MVFR cigs will continue through mid to late morning with a fairly quick return back to VFR 16-17Z I-35 with DRT back to VFR around 15Z. Toward the end of the current forecast for DRT, we will show a northwest wind shift with a merging dryline and Pac front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 72 94 64 85 / 0 10 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 94 65 85 / 0 10 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 94 65 87 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 70 89 60 80 / 0 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 96 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 93 62 82 / 0 20 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 94 65 88 / 0 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 94 64 87 / 0 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 93 65 86 / 0 20 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 93 67 87 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 94 69 89 / 0 0 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...76 LONG TERM....76 AVIATION...Platt