Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
438 FXUS64 KEWX 281743 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to moderate showers increasing overnight into Saturday morning. - Chances for thunderstorms along and east of I-35 Saturday night. - Strong cold front Saturday night bringing gusty winds and the coldest temperatures of the season. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A thickening layer of stratiform clouds is holding steady over South- Central Texas, and that should continue as southerly flow continues to bolster the cloud deck beneath a subtropical jet streak. RAP13 model cross sections suggest the cloud deck is currently thickest over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau where light showers are ongoing, but a strengthening low-level jet will enable the continued eastward expansion of most light rain showers and sprinkly activity across the remainder of South- Central Texas today. Coverage of these showers will likely be most widespread tonight as broad isentropic ascent peaks in strength. Most rain will likely remain light to moderate in intensity, but a few isolated rumbles of thunder are possible as instability aloft increases slightly. Rainfall totals through tonight will generally be in range of a few hundredths of an inch up to about a half- inch, with the highest totals likely terrain enhanced along the Balcones Escarpment. The cloud cover will prevent temperatures from changing much overnight, keeping them steadily in the mid 50s to low 60s. Some erosion of the cloud deck is expected Saturday as flow above the cloud layer veers slightly. Temperatures should climb into the 70s for most in response, though portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country will likely stay in the 60s. The initial showers from Friday night and Saturday morning are forecast to shift east and lessen as the low-level jet weakens late- morning Saturday. However, a pre-frontal surface trough and confluent zones are expected to develop the Coastal Plains Saturday afternoon. If enough clearing occurs, adequate destabilization for the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Saturday evening mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. The latest 12Z CAMs indicate these chances may be greatest in the evening to overnight hours. The presence of 25-35 kt bulk shear indicate a couple of strong to marginally severe storms are possible, with hail the primary severe hazard in addition to locally heavy rain. By late Saturday evening, a strong polar cold front will be barreling south across South-Central Texas. The front will undercut thunderstorms, shoving them south and east Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is good consensus that the front will traverse the entirety of South-Central Texas before sunrise. Behind the front, temperatures will drop quickly, accompanied by a brisk north wind. Gusts could approach 40 to 45 mph with sustained winds up to 25 mph early Sunday morning. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s early Sunday morning for portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and areas north of Austin. With the strong winds, wind chills could be in the 20s for the coldest locales. In fact, the latest HREF probabilities indicate a 30 to 50 percent chance that some of the more exposed locations in the Hill Country could see wind chills below 25F by 6 AM Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Saturday night/Sunday morning`s powerful cold front will usher in about three days of below average temperatures and the coldest conditions of the season so far. Gusty post-frontal winds should persist into Sunday afternoon but will start to taper off heading into Sunday night. Most of the dense cold air that initially arrives will be underneath a layer of moist air, so cloudy afternoons may keep temperatures low Sunday and Monday. Forecast highs on those two days are only in the upper 40s to mid 50s across South-Central Texas, marking the coldest afternoons since February. Broad ascent ahead of a shortwave trough on Monday also supports an increased chance for broad showers on Monday for the Rio Grande Plains, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. Freezing temperatures are possible mainly for the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau Monday morning and Tuesday morning. Tuesday morning looks to bring the coldest temperatures of next week as the passing shortwave trough brings a reinforcing shot of cold that clears the cloudiness. A broad longwave pattern should continue over the central US throughout next week. However, an amplifying shortwave component over the southwestern US may support a slight warming trend towards midweek and a return of broad low to medium rain chances. That said, the window remains open for continued intrusions of cold air given the weather pattern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Cloudy skies are to maintain with the ceilings initially MVFR near the Rio Grande and VFR elsewhere. The lower ceilings will expand eastward into and through tonight with MVFR to IFR conditions establishing. Light to occasional moderate rain showers have begun along the Rio Grande and will expand and spread eastward by later this evening into the overnight. The shower activity should end quickest along the Rio Grande but will keep some light drizzle possible into the overnight. Showers dwindle for the I-35 corridor TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) sometime around early to mid- morning. Flight conditions slowly improve to VFR by the end of the 30 hr TAF period at KAUS and KSAT. Light to moderate breezes are expected to maintain through the period out of the south to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 59 75 41 / 10 60 30 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 59 76 41 / 10 60 30 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 59 75 43 / 20 70 30 50 Burnet Muni Airport 62 57 73 38 / 10 60 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 62 60 76 48 / 30 30 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 57 75 38 / 10 50 30 30 Hondo Muni Airport 64 59 73 43 / 30 60 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 59 77 42 / 10 70 30 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 60 76 42 / 10 50 50 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 65 61 74 45 / 20 70 30 30 Stinson Muni Airport 66 63 76 48 / 20 60 20 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62