Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
023 FXUS64 KEWX 040114 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 714 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and cloudy weather spreading throughout South-Central Texas through Friday with scattered rain showers, drizzle, and mist. - A cold front moves through the area Thursday morning, bringing breezy conditions. - Drier and warmer weekend weather, with dry conditions continuing into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 We have updated the forecast to adjust for an earlier onset of fog for areas generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. We will need to monitor for some patchy, dense fog overnight in the mentioned area. As we head towards sunrise, a cold front will be moving in from the north and this should bring an improvement in the visibility from north to south. We will need to keep an eye on the Winter Garden/Highway 57 region tomorrow morning for some patchy, dense fog as moisture lingers in this region. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A sheet of stratiform cloudiness is covering much of the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor this afternoon, accompanied in spots by mist and lowered visibilities. As forcing increases ahead of an approaching shortwave trough from the Four Corners region, a gradual increase in showers is forecast over the Coastal Plains heading into the evening with drizzle and misty conditions continuing along the I- 35 corridor with additional extensions west possible. The coastal low associated with this activity has trended east, so more substantial showers and storms are likely to remain east of US Highway 77. A shallow cold front is forecast to reach South-Central Texas tonight from the northwest. A lack of supportive flow aloft looks to make this front somewhat slow and broad, but cooler air should manage to spread throughout the region Thursday morning. Foggy conditions are possible tonight particularly over the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor before the front arrives. Breezy conditions are forecast behind the front, with gusts up to around 30 mph developing in the morning before settling down Thursday evening. The front should leave behind an extended, gently sloping mass of cool air draped across the region. As a series of weak shortwaves embedded in the jet aloft traverse the area, isentropic upglide atop this airmass is forecast to lead to widespread cloudiness and scattered chances for mostly light showers Thursday throughout the area, with a few isolated rumbles of thunder possible. Most of the rains should be light, and conditions don`t look very different from the drab weather experienced earlier this week. The north wind and clouds will contribute to a much cooler daytime Thursday with afternoon temperatures in the 40s for most aside from slightly higher 50s in the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures should generally decrease over the course of the day. The cloudy weather and chances for light rains are expected to continue through Thursday night as low- and mid-level moisture continue to broadly ascend over the region. Temperatures should gradually bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s by Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The cloudy and showery pattern is expected to continue into Friday, but should start to trend downwards as the jet starts to move to the south and east, opening the door for drier air aloft arriving from the northwest. Based on the probabilistic NBM output, 72-hour rainfall totals ranging from a few hundredths near the Rio Grande to about a quarter inch along the I-35 corridor to around a half-inch in the Coastal Plains seem to be the most likely outcomes by the time all is said and done. A few lingering showers are possible as late as Saturday morning for the Coastal Plains, but a clearing trend is expected by Saturday night as the primary trough axis finally makes it past the area, kicking off a dry pattern that looks to continue into next week. With better prospects for clearer skies this weekend, highs are forecast to be warmer and in the mid 60s to low 70s while lows reach the 40s. Models have trended a little faster with a cold front early next week, with a possible arrival as early as Sunday. Without the overlay of moisture streaming overhead, rain chances with that front look negligible and skies should remain mostly clear. The cooler air may knock down temperatures to slightly cooler than seasonable values to start next week. An additional morning freeze Monday morning is possible for the Hill Country, though chances are currently 10 to 30 percent. In contrast to this week, next week looks dominated by northwest flow aloft as the lowest 500mb thicknesses shift to the eastern US. This favors clear skies and dry weather next week, which should allow average daytime temperatures to trend up. The northwest flow could still support some dry cold fronts bringing batches of colder air later in the week. In the longer term, there is good ensemble consensus that a ridge will become established overhead, leading to warmer than seasonable temperatures as we move into mid-December. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Expect very poor flying conditions throughout the period for all I-35 TAF sites. LIFR cigs continue for KAUS as -DZ and -RA and BR continue to spread and affect the terminal. VLIFR conditions are possible but have opted to keep these CIGS out of the TAF for now until confidence increases. 200 foot cigs are certainly possible tonight. Expect Vis to remain between 1SM and 3SM until late tomorrow afternoon. For KSSF and KSAT cigs are rapidly deteriorating as more -DZ and even some -RA moves further west across the TAF sites. Expect this trend to continue along with decreasing and poor Vis from 1SM to 3SM through the overnight with periods of LIFR and maybe even VLIFR especially from 03Z to 11Z. Currently have Cigs as low as 300 feet but will continue to monitor and amend as needed for all I-35 TAF sites. Conditions don`t look to improve until late tomorrow afternoon 18Z/20Z with MVFR cigs returning as this system and its moisture finally pulls away. For KDRT VFR cigs can be expected as moisture and -DZ will be slow to advance north and westward. Expect deteriorating cigs by 06Z with MVFR conditions further degrading to IFR cigs by 09Z with Vis also dropping to about 3SM. Cigs improve by early afternoon back to VFR as the system and its moisture associated with it move away. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 48 51 41 54 / 30 50 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 51 42 54 / 40 50 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 50 52 42 53 / 30 50 30 30 Burnet Muni Airport 45 47 38 53 / 20 40 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 50 56 45 60 / 10 20 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 47 48 40 55 / 30 40 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 50 55 44 56 / 20 40 30 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 50 52 42 54 / 40 50 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 51 53 42 52 / 70 60 30 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 52 54 43 55 / 20 50 30 30 Stinson Muni Airport 54 55 44 55 / 30 50 30 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...CJM