Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
177 FXUS64 KEWX 131802 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1202 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm into next week. - Dry through the wekeend, trending wetter middle to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 An upper-level ridge is beginning to extend east into our area and is expected to remain into Saturday. This along with moist southerly flow beneath the ridge will make for an unseasonably warm and muggy end to the week. Dew points in the low 60s are expected to arrive along and east of the I-35 corridor tonight, bringing low stratus and patchy fog after midnight. Favored locations for patchy dense advection fog continue to be over the Coastal Plains and low-lying portions of the I-35 corridor where saturation is more likely. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s are forecast. Friday and Friday night won`t be much different than the last few days, with highs in the 80s and lows around 60. Southerly winds along the I-35 corridor, Hill Country, and southern Edwards Plateau are expected to be similarly breezy Friday afternoon with occasional gusts again in the 20 to 25 mph range. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 The upper-level ridge stays in our area to start the weekend before elongating and shifting east Sunday into Monday ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the Intermountain West. Weak surface troughing is expected to develop beneath split flow aloft over Texas and Oklahoma this weekend into early next week. This will increase warm southwesterly flow over South-Central Texas, bolstering the low-level thermal ridge and leading to highs in daily record territory Sunday through Tuesday with values in the upper 80s to low 90s. NBM probabilities for highs above 90F are around 50 to 80 percent over the Rio Grande Plains and 20 to 40 percent over the Coastal Plains. Needless to say, these values are well above average levels by about 15 to 20 degrees. Lows will also remain well above average into early next week, buoyed into the 60s by persistently muggy dew points supplied by the uninterrupted flow off the Gulf. As troughing intensifies over the western US, the ridging over Texas will be gradually replaced by a southwest to northeast jet stream on the leading edge of the broader longwave trough. This will begin adding Pacific air aloft over the area and provide a more favorable environment for rising air and rain, though rain chances will be dependent on individual disturbances within the jet and other low- level features. An initial shortwave emerges from the larger trough well to our north on Monday, which has trended a little slower in recent runs. South-Central Texas may catch just enough of the cyclonic low-level flow associated with this lead disturbance for a weak Pacific front to drift into the region, promoting some slight rain chances (10 to 25 percent) mainly near the Austin area and along and east of the I-35 corridor in the form of isolated showers and some thunderstorms. Most of the guidance has delayed this feature to Tuesday rather than Monday, but timing could continue to vary considerably given the shortwave`s very distant influence. Towards the midweek, ensemble guidance is supportive of a strong shortwave swinging out of the Baja California and into the southwestern US. Such a scenario would amplify divergence aloft over our region, inducing surface cyclogenesis with the possibility of a strong Pacific front pushing through the area with showers and storms both within the broad diffluent flow ahead of any potential front and along the front itself. While ensemble means have shifted towards a more straightforward propagation of the trough towards our area Wednesday into Thursday, cluster analysis indicates a sizable proportion of ensemble members still depict the shortwave weakening off California or taking much longer to reach our area. Significant uncertainties remain in timing and strength, and it likely won`t be until about early next week... when the initial impulse is first sampled by upper-air stations on the West Coast... for a more confident forecast in the shortwave evolution to be established. For now, rain chances increase to the 40 to 60 percent range Wednesday and Thursday. The long fetch of moist Pacific air ahead of this system and the potential strength of the shortwave suggest threats for severe weather and heavy rain are possible, but those details are still unclear at this range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through this evening with only some fair weather cumulus expected early this afternoon. Breezy S winds could gust to around 22 KT with a more decoupled wind expected by mid evening. Morning fog was a bit more than advertised by the 00Z model runs, so we`ll run a bit more pessimistic than persistence, showing some IFR to low MVFR skies over SAT/SSF and another round of patchy dense flog at AUS conditions should improve at all sites by around 18Z Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 62 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 59 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 58 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 57 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 62 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...18