Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
291 FXUS64 KEWX 040600 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1200 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning fog gradually decreases as a cold front brings rain chances and cooler temperatures to south central Texas today into Friday morning. - Drier and warmer this weekend, with a cold front moving in Sunday afternoon. Temperatures remain a little below normal on Monday, with a warming trend into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Recent observational trends show the fog previously along and east of the I-35 corridor continues to push westward into the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. This trend is expected to continue overnight with fog eventually reaching the Rio Grande plains. While we can`t rule out some brief, dense fog near the I-35 corridor, suspect with continued light rain and a gradual increase in northeast winds, any dense fog potential will be localized. For today, a shallow cold front with warm air advection just above the cool air at the surface will keep skies cloudy along with a decent chance for light showers generally along and east of I-35 this morning. An isolated thunderstorm or two could also develop east of the I-35/I-37 corridors tonight. Farther west, rain chances will be much lower and limited to the morning hours when the front moves through. For the afternoon and early evening, we expect to see a brief decrease in rain chances as the warm air advection pattern fades. The clouds and rain will keep highs below normal, with lower 50s to lower 60s in the forecast. For Thursday evening into the pre- dawn hours on Friday, we expect most areas to remain dry. However, this will change as Friday morning progresses. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 An increase in shortwave activity embedded in the southwest flow aloft should bring another chance for light rain to most areas beginning early Friday morning. Rain chances will appear first along the Rio Grande, then spread eastward through early afternoon. Rainfall amounts through Friday will be fairly low, with one-tenth of an inch or less over the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and most of the Hill Country. Amounts nudge upward to around one-tenth to one-quarter inch along and east of I-35. There will be a few higher amounts up to around one-half inch near the coastal plains. Highs on Friday continue to remain below normal, with 50s expected for most locations. A quick warm-up is in store on Saturday as clouds decrease from west to east allowing highs to warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Another cold front is expected to move in Sunday afternoon leading to afternoon highs in the 60s for areas mainly north of I-10. Elsewhere, the late arrival of the front should allow for highs to peak in the 70s. Surface high pressure remains intact Monday, keeping highs down in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A ridge of high pressure building over the eastern Pacific into the desert southwest will keep our region in a dry and stable northwest flow aloft. With an active pattern remaining to our north, we will keep the forecast dry at this time. Temperatures should remain above normal, but will keep an eye out for an occasional cold front temporarily disrupting the warming trend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Soupy conditions along I-35 will probably deteriorate slightly more in the overnight hours. There appears to be just enough wind to keep VSBYs from bottoming completely out, but some episodes of 1/2SM OVC002 type conditions are depicted at least for the San Antonio area. We`ll keep an eye on AUS, but expect slightly better VSBYs with more -RADZ and a slightly bolder NE breeze. At DRT the low clouds and VSBYs are behind schedule, but the sites to the east would suggest that conditions would drop to IFR or lower right at the onset. -DZ is no longer being considered at DRT, but there is some isentropic lift seen by radar at more elevated levels, so some form of precip may need to go back into the forecast later in the morning. By daybreak the winds are shown to pick up slightly, and this should at least pull AUS back up to the upper part of IFR and eventually MVFR. SAT/SSF may be slower to trend up, but only by an hour or two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 58 49 54 40 / 10 30 40 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 58 49 54 40 / 10 40 40 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 57 50 56 41 / 10 30 40 30 Burnet Muni Airport 67 45 49 38 / 10 30 30 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 51 60 46 / 0 10 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 47 52 39 / 10 30 40 10 Hondo Muni Airport 67 52 59 43 / 0 20 30 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 58 49 56 40 / 20 40 40 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 56 52 55 40 / 30 70 50 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 53 57 44 / 10 30 40 30 Stinson Muni Airport 59 55 59 45 / 10 30 40 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...18