841
FXUS64 KEWX 070728
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Clear skies are in control for the most part across South-Central
Texas overnight. There is a small group of mid to upper level clouds
moving across Val Verde and Edwards counties, but that is it. By day
break, some models suggest for low clouds to develop along the Rio
Grande and then dissipate around mid Friday morning. By the time the
midday or noon period comes around, expect mostly sunny to sunny
skies. High temperatures are likely to range from the mid to upper
90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains with
upper 90s and up to 103 degrees along the Rio Grande. Heat index
values range from the 100 to 104 for the I-35 corridor and coastal
plains to 100 to 108 along the Rio Grande. No rain expected.

Some clouds return across the local area on Saturday morning and
then dissipate by late morning as mixing takes place. Similar to
Friday`s high temperatures, Saturday` highs stay in the 90s for most
locations and up to 102 degrees along the I-35 corridor. A few of
the hires models develop a few storms over the northeast part of
Mexico but they stay over there with no impact to any close
locations along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The above normal heat continues across south central Texas through
the remainder of the weekend with the subtropical high being the
dominant weather feature. Highs will range from the lower 90s to near
104 degrees, with the warmest readings out west along the Rio Grande.
A continuation of southerly flow in the low-levels will also keep
overnight lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees. A temporary weakening
of the above mentioned subtropical high will take place late Sunday
into Monday as the remnants of an upper low approach from the west.
This will provide a low chance for showers and storms across the Hill
Country into portions of the I-35 corridor Sunday evening into Monday
morning. Low rain chances spread a little farther south Monday
afternoon as daytime heating is realized. There remains considerable
model differences with regard to the strength of a cold front on
Monday. The GFS continues to be the outlier in showing a stronger
front and cooler temperatures compared to the ECMWF and Canadian
operational models. There is some support we will see a wind shift
and perhaps some slightly cooler temperatures Monday and perhaps into
Tuesday. However, will not trend the forecast as cool as the GFS just
yet, but will show an east to northeasterly wind shift Monday into
Tuesday. We will continue to monitor the medium range guidance and
gladly lower temperatures if models trend toward the cooler solution.


Temperatures look to trend upward as we head into the mid to late
week portion of next week as the subtropical high builds to our west.
The low-level thermal ridge will quickly amplify with highs trending
some 5 to 10 degrees above normal. We will continue with a dry
forecast, but will keep an eye on the northwest to northerly flow
aloft for possible overnight MCS pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for KAUS, KSAT and KSSF through the
forecast period. A light and variable and at times easterly wind flow
is forecast to dominate overnight through Friday morning. Low clouds
are forecast to develop overnight across the Rio Grande and affect
KDRT by day break through the middle of the morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail at KDRT on Friday afternoon and
evening. Wind speeds pick up (8 to 12 knots and wind gusts up to 20
knots) especially across the Rio Grande mid to late afternoon into
the evening as a surface trough moves across west Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  73  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  79 102  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            100  71 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          101  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...17