Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 172349 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
649 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm afternoon highs continue through early next
  week with mostly dry weather.

- Brief cooldown for Sunday and especially Sunday night

- Slight chances (10-20%) of rain forecast for the Coastal Plains
  along the US Highway 77 corridor Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

For this afternoon expect another warm day for October standards
with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. A trough out
west looks to impact our region for tonight acting to increase
moisture across the area. As a result expect tonight to be more
on the muggy side compared to the last previous evenings. Saturday
highs should increase a few degrees with many areas hitting the
low to mid 90s. There also is a very small chance less than 20%
for some rain across the Coastal Plains and far northern Hill
Country (Best chances along and north of a Marble Falls to Austin
to La Grange line) as a weak cool front approaches our area. HiRes
models seem to agree with this with the majority not showing much
if any rain at all as the better forcing will be towards our
north and west across north and eastern TX. Any rain that does
manage to fall will be light and likely a quarter of an inch or
less. Most of the precip should be scoured out before midnight
once the weak front passes leading to cooler low temps for
Saturday night. Lows across the Hill Country could drop into the
upper 50s while those south of I-35 Corridor will likely not feel
the impacts of the front quite as fast with lows remaining in the
upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Sunday looks to be a different story as temps should struggle to
reach the 90s with a somewhat strong and breezy north to northeast
wind and drier humidity values. Those along and north of the I-35
Corridor including the Hill Country are expected to remain in the
low 80s while those south should reach the upper 80s. In fact due
to the very low RH values, dry conditions, lack of recent
rainfall, and some dry fuels we could see an elevated risk for
wildfires for Sunday. By sunday night the winds will have relaxed
allowing our coldest night of the fall season to commence. Some
areas in the Coastal Plains and northern I-35 Corridor could see
low temps in the lower 50s to even upper 40s. Everywhere else
should see temps only dipping into the upper 50s to around 60 with
warmer lows expected the further west and south one goes.
Definitely keep a jacket handy if going out. These cold temps
don`tlast long as upper level ridging reestablishes itself come
monday with highs once again in the low 90s with moisture
increasing due to the switch back to southeasterly winds. Tuesday
looks to be a touch cooler as another weak and mostly dry front
impacts the area. High temps for the remainder of the week should
remain in the upper 80s to low 90s with dry weather continuing
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR continues this evening before widespread low cloud development
takes place during the early morning hours on Saturday. Some minor
changes were made to the I-35 sites, mainly for a little earlier
start time of MVFR cigs and a slight lowering of cloud bases. We
also opted to add a mention of a TEMPO group to KSAT between
10-13Z for IFR conditions based on the latest guidance. We also
added a TEMPO group to DRT for some MVFR cigs around sunrise. MVFR
cigs will continue through mid to late morning with a fairly quick
return back to VFR 16-17Z I-35 with DRT back to VFR around 15Z.
Toward the end of the current forecast for DRT, we will show a
northwest wind shift with a merging dryline and Pac front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  94  64  85 /   0  10  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  94  65  85 /   0  10  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  94  65  87 /   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  89  60  80 /   0  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  96  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  93  62  82 /   0  20  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  94  65  88 /   0   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  94  64  87 /   0  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  93  65  86 /   0  20  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  93  67  87 /   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           72  94  69  89 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM....76
AVIATION...Platt