Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
223 FXUS64 KEWX 211547 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 947 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall coming to end this afternoon. - Another round of heavy rain is possible Sunday evening into Monday evening. Medium range and ensemble models suggest the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor to be impacted the most. && .UPDATE... Issued at 943 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 A broken line of showers is moving across the Hill Country toward the I-35 Corridor. This activity should continue to dissipate through the morning. Hi-res models are not showing any redevelopment this afternoon, but we won`t rule out completely just yet. We have lowered the POPs for the rest of the day since earlier projections were quite high. We have also added some patchy fog for the next couple of hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 We have an interesting setup late tonight/early Friday morning across South Central Texas with a couple of surface troughs lingering across the local area in addition to the passage of a Pacific front overnight. There is plenty of instability and shear for thunderstorms to develop into strong to severe intensity with all severe hazard types (large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes) possible. In addition, elevated precipitable water values in the range of 1.6 and 1.7 inches, could aid storms to produce heavy downpours, resulting in localized flooding. Once the Pacific front pushes across Hill Country Friday morning, dry conditions are forecast to develop and spread from northwest to southeast throughout the day. The Coastal Plains likely to keep some shower/storm activity during the mid to late afternoon period as the front pushes into the middle Texas coast. Dry conditions persist for most of Saturday with any shower or storm activity staying across the Coastal Plains and then late into the evening across portions of the Rio Grande. Cooler daytime temperatures are forecast across the local area Friday through the weekend in the wake of the front with highs mainly in the 70s through lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Another round of heavy rain is possible Sunday evening through Monday evening as an upper level storm system moves across the Southern Plains in combination with the passage of a Pacific front. Increased moisture is forecast to be in place for periods of heavy rain ahead and along the boundary. Medium range models favored portions of the Rio Grande, Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor including the Austin and San Antonio metro areas. Once the front moves out of the local area Monday evening, a dry weather pattern takes control for the rest of the week. The best chances for rain and at that we are talking slight chances, stay over the Coastal Plains for the extended period. More seasonal temperatures await next week with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to prevail for majority of the morning across the region except for portions of Val Verde county, where VFR conditions may maintain. Showers will remain possible east of highway 281 this morning, and went with a TEMPO group at KAUS and PROB30 groups at KSAT and KSSF. An isolated storm or two could develop but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. No rain is expected at KDRT. VFR flight conditions are expected to return into early afternoon and maintain through the night. Winds remain at or below 10 kts with directions becoming more north to northeasterly with time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 79 57 75 56 / 40 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 80 56 75 55 / 50 20 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 80 59 77 58 / 40 20 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 52 72 53 / 40 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 56 77 62 / 0 0 20 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 53 73 53 / 50 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 80 59 78 58 / 40 20 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 81 58 77 56 / 40 20 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 60 77 56 / 50 40 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 79 62 77 60 / 50 30 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 82 63 78 61 / 40 30 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...05 SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...62