Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
850 FXUS64 KEWX 230620 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1220 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain chances increasing tonight into Sunday along the Rio Grande east to the I-35 corridor with isolated storms. - A line of isolated to scattered showers and storms will move west to east Monday with higher chances north of Interstate 10. - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over the Coastal Plains east of the Austin area Monday afternoon and evening. - Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving, with patchy morning freezes possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Surface winds remain out of the northeast to east across most of the region as high pressure centered over the Ozarks slowly moves west. This will help keep overnight dew points low and in the 50s. However, increasing divergence ahead of an approaching deep upper- level low over the Intermountain West is forcing an intensification of southerly flow just above the surface, supporting strong moist advection along the Rio Grande northward to the Edwards Plateau and bringing along with it a cloud deck that will spread across most of South-Central Texas today. Temperatures in portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country may struggle to rise above the low 60s this afternoon due to this cloudiness. As moisture deepens, shower activity is expected to increase and spread over the course of the day, beginning over the Rio Grande Plains and extending north and east across South-Central Texas. The broad isentropic lift and expansive cloud deck favors mostly scattered and lighter showers during the day with most rainfall totals less than a quarter inch. Steeper mid-level lapse rates could support a thunderstorm or two mainly west of US Highway 83 with isolated potential for hail and some moderate to heavy rains. High resolution models have been persistent in suggesting about one or two such cells developing mid to late morning today. In general, the likelihood of thunderstorms or heavier rain is higher towards the west with the higher elevated CAPE. The upper-level low and its parent trough then swings into the Southern and Central Plains Sunday night, bringing along with it a Pacific front that begins pushing east across the Edwards Plateau early Monday morning, traversing across South-Central Texas during the day and reaching the Coastal Plains Monday evening. The tilt of the trough axis has trended more positive, and this has resulted in forcing for ascent shifting increasingly north. While expected precipitable water values remain high for this time of year, shower and storm activity will likely be greater north of the region, with the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country seeing the tapered tail end of the line of showers and storms associated with the front Monday morning. Locally heavy rain remains a possibility, but confidence is low and many of the latest high-resolution models show very lackluster simulated reflectivity outputs and rainfall amounts west of I-35 (areal totals in the hundredths to tenths of inches). However, intensification and southward extension of storms is possible Monday afternoon and evening mainly east of the Austin area and over the Coastal Plains as the front encounters less stable air and the trough axis becomes more neutrally tilted. Strong effective bulk shear accompanied by increasing SBCAPE suggest some potential for some isolated strong to severe storms over the Coastal Plains primarily north of Interstate 10 Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Lingering showers and thunderstorms along the Pacific front may continue over the Coastal Plains into Tuesday as the front slows down. With the front pushing Gulf air out of the region, lows Tuesday morning for most South-Central Texas in the wake of the front will be return to the upper 40s to mid 50s. However, highs Tuesday are still likely to be unseasonably warm and in the upper 70s to low 80s without any northerly flow to expel warmer air aloft. More significant temperature changes are likely to come midweek. The expansive troughing pattern previously spread over the western US will start to shift east, leading to an avenue of northwesterly flow across the lee side of the Rockies and the Central Plains. This will dislodge a cold airmass southward, sending a dry and crisp cold front south through our area sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday. Forecast highs drop into the 60s following the front. Patchy freezes are possible Thanksgiving morning as the coldest air with this surge slides over the region. A gradual warming trend may commence heading into the weekend as southwesterly flow aloft resumes ahead of renewed troughing over the western US. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 VFR flight conditions begin the TAF period but conditions are to gradually deteriorate from west to east through later today and tonight. Clouds will continue to increase and ceilings gradually lower with progression in time with conditions becoming MVFR over the western half of the area this morning. There may be a slight rise in the ceilings late afternoon before lowering even more across the entirety of South-Central Texas tonight. IFR ceilings are forecast to establish across the 30 hr TAF sites (KAUS and KSAT) after midnight into Tuesday morning. In addition to the lowering ceilings, spotty showers will be possible with the greatest probabilities west of San Antonio along the Rio Grande. Added -DZ and a PROB30 for -SHRA at KDRT as a result while the probabilities are too low across the other TAF sites for the inclusion in the TAFs. The winds steadily shift with directions becoming more south-southeasterly by the end of the forecast period. Sustained wind speeds pick up at times into the 10-12 kt range as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 72 66 80 56 / 10 30 60 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 66 81 54 / 10 30 60 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 66 81 56 / 10 30 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 67 63 74 51 / 20 50 70 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 66 81 52 / 50 40 30 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 63 77 52 / 10 30 70 20 Hondo Muni Airport 71 65 78 50 / 30 30 50 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 65 82 55 / 10 30 50 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 66 83 59 / 10 20 70 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 67 79 57 / 20 20 50 10 Stinson Muni Airport 73 69 81 58 / 20 20 40 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62