Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
014 FXUS64 KEWX 171125 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 525 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm and muggy into midweek with morning low clouds, patchy fog, and drizzle - A Pacific storm system will bring returning rain and storm chances (60-80%) with the opportunity for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall - Uncertainty in the forecast this weekend with a secondary system && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A warm and humid airmass stays in place through Tuesday with a persistent southerly low-level flow and a west-southwesterly flow aloft. This will support development of low clouds from the late overnight into each morning. For most locations, stratus should remain more favored over fog formation. However, there will be patchy fog still for some. Highest HREF/REFS probabilities of visibility below 1 mile occurs across Atascosa, Bexar, Bandera, Frio, Kendall, Medina, and Uvalde counties this morning. For Tuesday, best probabilities look to be mainly over the Southern Edwards Plateau. Wouldn`t rule out some patchy drizzle Tuesday morning as well thanks to a slightly deeper pool of low-level moisture. The low clouds will lift and mix with occasional high clouds to result in partly cloudy to mostly clear skies from the afternoon through the evening each day. Daytime highs will run primarily in the 80s. Locations could approach record highs for Tuesday but today`s records may be a little out of reach. The overnight lows primarily run in the 60s into the low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Warm and moist air advection intensifies across the region from Tuesday night through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow in the advance of the approaching upper level low coming off the Pacific. Wednesday starts off warm and very humid with patchy to areas of drizzle possible. Rain showers and some storm activity could establish into and through Wednesday afternoon within this warm, moist air advection regime. While instability does build Wednesday, regional analysis of box soundings show a capping inversion holding at around 700 mb level, likely limiting storm growth and strength at least through the daytime. Better chances arrive from late Wednesday night through Thursday into Thursday night, and would be highlighted in the paragraph below. As the main upper level low pivots northeastward from the Desert Southwest into the Texas panhandle from late Wednesday through Thursday, it`ll help to send a trailing vort max and cold front across the region. Immediately ahead of and along these features would be the strongest ascent, with the highest rain and storm chances in the 60 to 80% range. A concern would be some locally heavy rainfall that may result in some flooding concerns. WPC has elected to introduce a level 1 to 2 risk for excessive rainfall across the region during this time range. The ensemble means are continuing to highlight rainfall amounts into the 1.5 to 2 inch range. However, the highest rainfall amounts continue to favor regions of north Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. In addition to locally heavy rainfall, enough shear and instability overlap to where strong to severe storms could be possible as well with the most organized convection. Rain and storm chances decline into and through Friday from west to east as drier and cooler air filters into the region behind the front. Forecast uncertainty increases this weekend due to differences in the medium range guidance regarding a second upper level system coming off the Pacific. The latest ECMWF and Canadian suites are more progressive with the system while the GFS is slower. The progressive solutions would promote a cooler forecast with the clouds becoming socked in and with opportunities for rain. While with the slower solution, conditions would lean to a drier and milder forecast. I will keep the forecast on par with the NBM guidance, featuring low to medium (20-30%) rain chances and afternoon highs in the low 70s. The overnight lows trend into the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A mix of low stratus and high clouds resides over South Central Texas for the start of the period. MVFR to IFR ceilings are mainly from the Hill Country eastward, including over I-35 terminals. Isolated LIFR conditions are still possible though mid-morning, but look less likely than the previous forecast. Areas of fog have begun to develop as well near HDO-SAT-PEZ. Conditions will improve late morning with VFR conditions expected across the area this afternoon. There is high confidence low ceilings will develop again early Tuesday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Record High Temperatures Day Mon Tue Date 11/17 11/18 AUS 89/2013 84/2017 ATT 90/2013 85/1921 & 1986 SAT 89/2013 88/1986 & 2017 DRT 91/1906 87/1986 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 86 71 86 70 / 0 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 70 87 68 / 0 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 69 86 69 / 0 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 85 68 82 66 / 0 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 66 85 68 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 70 84 68 / 0 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 87 67 85 68 / 0 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 69 87 68 / 0 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 69 87 68 / 10 10 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 70 85 70 / 0 10 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 87 70 87 70 / 0 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...27