Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
919 FXUS64 KEWX 011248 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 748 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low rain chances (20-40%) for the Hill Country and along and east of Hwy 281 Saturday as another cold front moves through the region. - Dry weather with a slow warming trend continues into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 741 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A Rangeland Fire Danger statement was issued for Kinney, Maverick, and Val Verde counties, effective beginning at 10 AM CDT and ending at 6 PM CDT today. North-northwesterly winds behind a front are expected to funnel downsloping gusts along the Rio Grande late-morning to afternoon, beginning in western Val Verde County by around 10 AM and reaching Maverick County by the afternoon. Sustained winds could reach 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Coupled with relative humidity values near 20 percent and dry fuels, this is expected to produce near-critical fire weather conditions. Good moisture recovery and weaker winds in the evening are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Cool and dry weather continues in the pre-dawn hours, but uniform SE winds overnight will bring in more humidity for a milder morning low temperature. There shouldn`t be many low clouds at daybreak, but the late morning should see some developing fair weather cumulus and some mid level clouds rolling in from the north with the arrival of a reinforcing cold front. The shortwave disturbance driving the front is most notable crossing over the Edwards Plateau into the Rio Grand Plains in the early afternoon, so the frontal arrival could be a bit complicated with a stronger noted FROPA over the western counties. Eastern counties of Central TX will see a similar timing but with a slower frontal advancement over the Coastal Prairies south of I-10. The more easterly winds at the time of the front could generate a few surface based showers and storms and there is also some dynamic support for some elevated convection from the shortwave and mid level moisture. The timing window is in poor confidence since there is both a surface based and elevated level triggering of precipitation possible. Dynamics might have been sufficient for severe storms, but moisture limitations and only weak low level convergence will probably keep the convection more well behaved. Surface convection should push mostly south of our forecast area by sunset, but the HRRR suggest some elevated echoes still popping up over the southern half of our area in the evening. While this potential for rain sounds exciting, the potential for good heavy downpours on the scale of an inch of rain will be saved for the coastal Texas counties where low level moisture and a later frontal arrival will come into play. Coverage east of Highway 281 should be considered 15-40% which is about what most of the model solutions would suggest. Most of the areas that do see rain across our central and eastern counties can expect a trace to maybe 1/4 inch if their lucky enough. Most of the amounts in the 1/10-1/4 inch range should fall east of a Taylor to Cuero line. As rain chances diminish evening and overnight conditions behind the front will not be nearly as harsh as the blustery conditions behind the prior front. A moderate wind mainly around 10 mph will continue through the night into the mid afternoon hours Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Surface high pressure remains anchored over Central and East TX into Monday while light southerly winds return underneath a building upper ridge that will keep us in a stable and slow warming trend through the work week. After just a couple more days with maxes mostly in the 70s, highs trend back into mostly the 80s by midweek. South to southeasterly winds remain intact in the lower levels, so the first part of the week will be mostly sunny, but some morning low clouds may begin forming again by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Few changes were needed from the previous forecast. VFR ceilings are expected despite a FROPA expected this afternoon. Some -SHRA is possible, with a PROB30 group used at AUS, SAT, and SSF. Winds will shift from ENE to NE to northerly by later today, with occasional gusts up and over 20 kts possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 49 74 48 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 46 73 44 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 48 74 45 / 20 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 68 45 71 46 / 40 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 45 72 46 / 40 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 47 75 46 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 47 75 45 / 30 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 47 72 44 / 40 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 50 74 49 / 20 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 52 75 49 / 20 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...MMM