Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
008 FXUS64 KEWX 181905 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch for Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor Wednesday night until Friday morning. - Some strong to isolated severe storms also possible late Wednesday night into early Friday. - Higher uncertainty but additional rain chances could occur from the weekend through early next week due to a second Pacific upper level low pressure system. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 An upper level low is moving into the west coast with a low amplitude ridge over Texas making the flow west-southwesterly. Low level flow is from the southeast over South-Central Texas keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. This pattern will continue tonight and Wednesday making for another unseasonably warm night and day. Low clouds will develop overnight, and there may be some drizzle Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another very warm day with high temperatures from the middle 70s to middle 80s. The upper low will move to the east during the day Wednesday turning the flow to the southwest. This will generate sufficient lift to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. The upper low will open into a wave and become more progressive Wednesday night. This will bring stronger forcing to our region. Forecast models show PW increasing to 1.5"-1.8" ahead of this which will make locally heavy rain possible beginning late Wednesday night. The most likely area for excessive rain Wednesday night will be the Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. We have issued a Flood Watch starting late Wednesday night for the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 The upper trough will continue to move toward Texas Thursday and bring a Pacific cold front with it. This will move into the warm, moist airmass. PW values will remain high enough to produce excessive rain. Another round of heavy rain is possible over the Southern Edwards Plateau and then through the day is will move to the east with the front. The Flood Watch will continue through the day Thursday and overnight into Friday morning. Rainfall totals across the area will be 1-3 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches. Rainfall amounts will be decreasing Thursday evening and overnight as the front moves away from our CWA. Some showers and thunderstorms could linger during the day Friday over the eastern counties. The front will stall across South Texas and remain close enough to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Sunday and Monday another mature Pacific system will move through the region bringing another chance for precipitation. There won`t be much time re-moisten the airmass, so we do not expect excessive rainfall at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 MVFR ceilings are beginning to mix out but it may be another hour or so before all of South Central Texas returns to VFR. South to east winds generally remain under 12 knots this afternoon and evening, though isolated gusts up to 25 knots could be seen midday. MVFR to local IFR ceilings return tonight. Some -DZ cannot be ruled out around SAT/SSF/DRT Wednesday morning, but confidence is low enough to not mention in the TAF at this time. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Record High Temperatures Tuesday 11/18 AUS 84/2017 ATT 85/1921 & 1986 SAT 88/1986 & 2017 DRT 87/1986 Record Rainfall Thursday 11/20 AUS 1.24"/2009 ATT 1.63"/2009 SAT 1.15"/2009 DRT 0.20"/1984 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 68 84 69 / 10 0 30 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 67 84 68 / 10 10 30 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 67 84 68 / 10 10 40 40 Burnet Muni Airport 82 66 81 66 / 10 0 30 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 69 80 66 / 10 10 60 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 67 84 68 / 10 0 30 50 Hondo Muni Airport 84 67 84 66 / 20 10 30 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 67 85 68 / 10 10 40 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 67 85 68 / 10 10 30 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 69 85 69 / 20 10 40 50 Stinson Muni Airport 85 69 87 70 / 10 10 40 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...27