Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
821 FXUS64 KEWX 041150 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 550 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning fog gradually decreases as a cold front brings rain chances and cooler temperatures to south central Texas today into Friday morning. - Drier and warmer this weekend, with a cold front moving in Sunday afternoon. Temperatures remain a little below normal on Monday, with a warming trend into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through tonight) Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Recent observational trends show the fog previously along and east of the I-35 corridor continues to push westward into the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. This trend is expected to continue overnight with fog eventually reaching the Rio Grande plains. While we can`t rule out some brief, dense fog near the I-35 corridor, suspect with continued light rain and a gradual increase in northeast winds, any dense fog potential will be localized. For today, a shallow cold front with warm air advection just above the cool air at the surface will keep skies cloudy along with a decent chance for light showers generally along and east of I-35 this morning. An isolated thunderstorm or two could also develop east of the I-35/I-37 corridors tonight. Farther west, rain chances will be much lower and limited to the morning hours when the front moves through. For the afternoon and early evening, we expect to see a brief decrease in rain chances as the warm air advection pattern fades. The clouds and rain will keep highs below normal, with lower 50s to lower 60s in the forecast. For Thursday evening into the pre- dawn hours on Friday, we expect most areas to remain dry. However, this will change as Friday morning progresses. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 An increase in shortwave activity embedded in the southwest flow aloft should bring another chance for light rain to most areas beginning early Friday morning. Rain chances will appear first along the Rio Grande, then spread eastward through early afternoon. Rainfall amounts through Friday will be fairly low, with one-tenth of an inch or less over the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and most of the Hill Country. Amounts nudge upward to around one-tenth to one-quarter inch along and east of I-35. There will be a few higher amounts up to around one-half inch near the coastal plains. Highs on Friday continue to remain below normal, with 50s expected for most locations. A quick warm-up is in store on Saturday as clouds decrease from west to east allowing highs to warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Another cold front is expected to move in Sunday afternoon leading to afternoon highs in the 60s for areas mainly north of I-10. Elsewhere, the late arrival of the front should allow for highs to peak in the 70s. Surface high pressure remains intact Monday, keeping highs down in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A ridge of high pressure building over the eastern Pacific into the desert southwest will keep our region in a dry and stable northwest flow aloft. With an active pattern remaining to our north, we will keep the forecast dry at this time. Temperatures should remain above normal, but will keep an eye out for an occasional cold front temporarily disrupting the warming trend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A few moderate showers will impact mainly AUS for a couple hours with light rain and patchy drizzle showing more of a signal for most areas on radar. Surface winds from the frontal reinforcement are finally taking hold over all the TAF locations, with even some higher gusts just noted at DRT. The gusts at DRT will probably keep the skies in low VFR status for an hour or two and then probably settle back into MVFR for the rest of the morning. Mid day to mid afternoon improvements should continue at all TAF sites as the winds pick up and the isentropic lift signals weaken some. VFR skies should be attainable for several hours in the later periods and probably into the late morning Friday. There is another wave of lift to move over the area during the daytime hours Friday, so there could be some minor flight category degradations at some point in future updates. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 The chance for light rain continues across most of south central Texas today and Friday. The best chance for wetting rains will generally remain along and east of Interstate 35. A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift today, with some gusty conditions through most of the daytime hours. Dry weather and much warmer temperatures are in store Saturday, before another cold front moves in on Sunday bringing northerly winds back to the region. North winds and cool temperatures prevail Monday, with the forecast trending dry and warm into the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 54 40 54 46 / 40 20 30 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 54 40 52 44 / 40 20 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 41 54 45 / 40 30 30 0 Burnet Muni Airport 49 38 53 44 / 30 10 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 60 46 58 46 / 10 30 30 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 52 39 53 43 / 40 10 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 59 43 55 44 / 30 30 40 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 56 40 53 44 / 40 30 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 55 40 53 45 / 50 20 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 57 44 54 47 / 40 30 40 0 Stinson Muni Airport 59 45 55 48 / 40 30 40 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...18