341
FXUS62 KFFC 301812 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
112 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Waves of rainfall are expected today through Tuesday.

 - Another wave of rainfall is expected on Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Current radar loop shows the 1st round of showers moving into NW
GA. These showers are associated with a cold front extending from
SE TX up to the Mid-Atlantic states. This front is also associated
with the main low pressure system that dropped good amount of
wintery precipitation across the upper MS river valley and the
great lake states. Temps across North GA are still mainly in the
40s so not expecting much in the way of wintery precip this
morning. There may be some brief periods of mix precipitation at
the higher elevations of the NE GA mountains but not expecting any
accumulations. As this front moves into the state it is pushing
into a CAD wedge (Cold Air Damming) setup down the eastern
seaboard by the exiting high pressure ridge centered just of the
Mid-Atlantic coast. This wedge is keeping cool stable easterly
flow over the area as showers move in. This front is expected to
continue pushing SE Today stalling across central/south GA tonight
It begins to make its way back northward as a warm front Monday
as the next wave moves northward out of the western gulf. This
wave also moves into the established CAD wedge which keeps things
very stable across the area. These two rounds of precipitation
will drop a decent amount across north ands central GA. Expecting
most areas to see 1" to 1.5" through Monday night with some
isolated ares seeing near 2 inch two day totals.

High temps Today will be mainly in the upper 40s to 50s across
north GA with some upper 50s to middle 60s across central GA. with
some 60s Temps dip back down into the 30s and 40s Tonight. Highs
Monday will be a few degrees warmer than today but still mainly in
the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

As the long term period picks up on Monday night, a 500 mb
longwave trough will be moving from the Great Plains towards the
middle Mississippi River Valley. Ahead of this trough, much of the
Southeast will be positioned underneath southwesterly flow aloft,
which will pump moisture into the region, increasing dewpoints
and precipitable water values. A mid-level disturbance will be
positioned near the central Louisiana coast, with an associated
surface low developing just offshore. As this disturbance
traverses the southwesterly flow aloft, it will phase with the
longwave trough as it continues to swing eastward. This
interaction will contribute to the surface low intensifying and
becoming more organized as it approaches. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure centered near with Mid- Atlantic coast will help maintain
a CAD wedge along the lee side of the Appalachians and across
portions of north and east Georgia.

Through the overnight hours Monday night through Tuesday morning,
PWATs will increase to between 1.1-1.4 inches and dewpoints will
increase to between the low 40s in far northeast Georgia to the
mid 50s in south-central Georgia. Showers ahead of this low will
increase in coverage from west to east ahead of the low, becoming
widespread (with categorical PoPs) across the entire forecast area
after midnight and through the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday.
Rainfall totals associated with this system are fairly consistent
with previous forecasts, and are anticipated to range from 1-2
inches across the area, with the highest totals roughly along the
I-85 corridor and in the higher elevations of far northeast
Georgia. Recent dry conditions should largely inhibit flash
flooding concerns, though nuisance ponding of water could occur in
low-lying areas and (unique to this time of the year) where ample
leaf litter is clogging drainage systems. As such, there is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall per WPC
through 7 AM Tuesday.

Temperatures at the ridgetops could drop into the mid 30s early
Tuesday morning, so it cannot be ruled out that a couple of
locations in the highest elevations could see a brief
rain/freezing rain mix in the pre-dawn hours. However, this
possibility continues to trend less likely and measurable ice
accumulation is not expected. With the lingering wedge and
overcast skies, high temperatures will be limited to the upper 40s
to low 50s in north Georgia, and convective activity is thus not
expected in these areas. Temperatures rising into the low to mid
60s, dewpoints in the mid 50s in east-central Georgia and
increased low-level shear ahead of a cold front trailing from the
low could allow for the development of a few isolated storms in
the southeast corner of the forecast area. Severe weather is not
anticipated with any isolated storms that are able to develop.

Rain will begin to diminish from west to east late Tuesday
afternoon and evening as the trough axis swings through north
Georgia and the strengthening low and trailing cold front move
away towards the Mid- Atlantic coast. With northwesterly flow and
cold air advection setting up over the area, low temperatures on
Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the mid to upper 20s to
the north of I-85 and low to mid 30s to the south. Ridging over
the east CONUS and surface high pressure moving across the
Southeast will promote clearing skies and benign conditions on
Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday withing the post-frontal airmass
will be about 5-9 degrees below daily normals, in the low to mid
50s across the area. The shallow ridge will quickly move away to
the east on Wednesday night into Thursday, with southwesterly flow
setting up across the Southeast once again through the end of the
period. Another disturbance moving from the far northwest Gulf
through the Southeast will bring the next round of precipitation
on late in the week. Model inconsistency remain with respect to
the timing and evolution of this feature, though is coming into
better agreement that precipitation will be most likely Friday
through Saturday. With surface high pressure near New England
forcing another wedge into north Georgia, it is looking
increasingly likely that Friday is setting up to be a raw and
dreary day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

The northern terminals are observing IFR CIGs and OCNL IFR/MVFR
VIS as LGT/MOD SHRA push through. These conditions will continue
into this evening with SHRA/DZ tapering off by ~03z. A several-
hour period of CIG improvement may occur before CIGs return to
MVFR around daybreak tomorrow (Monday). At ATL, current light NE
winds should pivot to NW ~20z. The southern terminals (MCN and
CSG) should see CIGs drop to MVFR this evening with PSBL SHRA/DZ,
depending on how far south the front drops.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on evolution of CIGs and VIS reductions.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  39  50  38 /  50  40  50 100
Atlanta         51  39  53  42 /  60  30  60 100
Blairsville     49  30  49  34 /  80  10  50 100
Cartersville    50  32  53  39 /  70  20  60 100
Columbus        64  45  61  50 /  40  30  60 100
Gainesville     48  38  50  39 /  70  20  60 100
Macon           62  44  60  46 /  20  30  50  90
Rome            52  32  56  43 /  80  10  60 100
Peachtree City  55  39  55  43 /  60  30  60 100
Vidalia         69  49  64  50 /   0  20  30  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Martin