673
FXUS62 KFFC 021142
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Rainfall is expected through this afternoon. Periods of heavy
   rainfall will be possible, especially overnight. 1-2" of rain
   expected for most areas.

 - Another wave of rainfall expected Thursday afternoon through
   Saturday. Potential for wintry precipitation remains low at
   this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Old frontal boundary laying NE to SW across the area with a
developing wave ridding NE along the front moving through the
state. This wave has developed a closed low center along the
central gulf coast. This low center will push rapidly NE and move
into SW GA right around daybreak. It will continue to move NE
today pushing off the Carolina coast later this afternoon/evening.
the frontal boundary will also continue to push east exiting the
CWA this afternoon as well. We are currently see a good steady
rain from this wave across most of the area this morning. The rain
is expected to move east with clearing across the area from NW to
SE beginning shortly after daybreak and continuing through the
evening hours.

As the front moves out, High pressure builds into the area from
the southern plains with a drier airmass moving in across the
region. This ridge becomes centered just W of the state across
AL/TN by 12z Wed keeping things dry through Wed night.

Expecting cold temps to push back in behind the front with low
temps tonight mainly in the 20s to lower 30s. Highs Wed will only
get up into the lower to middle 50s with some 40s across the N GA
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

The benign and sunny weather on Wednesday will be short-lived.
Wednesday night into Thursday, the shortwave ridge will move
northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic coast and southwesterly mid and
upper level flow will set up across the Southeast once again. Cloud
cover spreading from west to east across the area overnight into
Thursday morning will help keep temperatures from dropping as low as
Wednesday morning, in the low to mid 30s across the forecast area.
Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 40s in far northwest
Georgia to near 60 in east-central Georgia. During the daytime on
Thursday, a strong shortwave trough with connections on the Arctic
side of the jet is expected to move across the Northeast. This will
nudge a cold front southward towards the north Georgia. Furthermore,
as this trough quickly swings away to the northeast, a surface high
(1025+ mb) will set up over the Appalachians and push east. A CAD
wedge is then expected to develop along the lee side of the
Appalachians and spread into north Georgia late Thursday night into
Friday. Another shortwave will meanwhile traverse the southern
branch of the jet and along the southwesterly flow over our region
Thursday into Friday. With a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the
cold front that nudged into the area, a surface low associated with
the shortwave is likely to develop over the northern Gulf and move
northeastward into the forecast area.

Isolated light showers could enter the western portion of the CWA as
early as Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will increase in coverage
and spread eastward, and is expected to become widespread by Friday
morning through much of the day. By early Saturday, rain chances
appear that they will gradually trail off from northwest to
southeast as the cold front begins to advance through the area, with
chance PoPs forecast in north Georgia and likely PoPs forecast in
central Georgia. Uncertainty remains in the ensemble guidance with
respect to the overall strength of this system moving through the
forecast area, which impacts how far north overrunning moisture will
be able to extend and ultimately where the axis of heaviest rainfall
sets up. At this time, this axis is forecast to be in south-central
Georgia, to the south of Columbus to Macon. Here, totals of around
2" are forecast, with progressively lower totals further north.

As moisture overspreads the wedge and rain falls through, latent
cooling processes could serve to reinforce the dome of cold air
underneath the wedge. While this setup has commonly led to wintry
weather in north Georgia, it is early in the season and we may not
be quite able to tap into cold enough temperatures yet. Furthermore,
guidance continues to favor a slightly weaker surface high to the
northeast, which will lead to a weaker wedge and cold air damming.
As a result, temperatures even in the highest elevations of far
north Georgia are forecast to only drop into the mid 30s on Friday
and Saturday mornings, which would favor a cold rain across the area
than any (limited) winter weather chances. Still, the evolution of
the shortwave over the northeast and following surface high to the
northeast will need to be monitored. A deeper shortwave and stronger
surface high would lead to a stronger wedge and cold air advection
within, and this a higher likelihood for wintry precipitation. For
now, the chances of that occurring appear to be trending lower.

Uncertainty also remains with respect to the movement of the front
and when precipitation will move south and east out of the forecast
area. Some ensemble members indicate the front clearing the area as
early as Saturday morning, while others slow the progression of the
front later into Saturday. With broad enough lift near the
frontal boundary or a secondary wave overrunning the boundary,
both of which could produce additional showers/rainfall as late as
Saturday night. By Sunday, long range guidance indicates a
shortwave dropping from the Great Plains towards the Tennessee
Valley region. A surface low developing ahead of this shortwave
could have the potential to bring another round of rainfall to
north Georgia on Sunday, though there is ample model disagreement
at this time about how this system will develop and evolve, with
PoPs being capped at slight chance on Sunday and Sunday night to
account for the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low ceilings, light rain, and east winds to start this TAF
period. The showers are starting to taper off from NW to SE and
will be more intermittent over the next few hours. Ceilings are
mainly in the IFR range and could see some LIFR ceilings through
early afternoon around 16z-18z. Ceilings lift into the MVFR range
by 20z-22z then VFR by 00z Wed. Winds are out of the E in the
6-12kt range and will turn to the NW as the front moves through
around 13z-15z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  31  51  33 /  80   0   0   0
Atlanta         52  30  50  35 /  60   0   0   0
Blairsville     48  23  50  29 /  80   0   0   0
Cartersville    51  25  52  30 /  60   0   0   0
Columbus        59  29  54  34 /  50   0   0   0
Gainesville     54  31  50  35 /  70   0   0   0
Macon           59  29  54  32 /  90   0   0   0
Rome            53  29  55  34 /  60   0   0   0
Peachtree City  55  25  53  30 /  60   0   0   0
Vidalia         64  36  56  36 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01