421
FXUS62 KFFC 180639
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
239 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions will continue today.

    - Chances for showers and thunderstorms (a few strong) return
      during the predawn hours on Sunday ahead of a cold front.
      Rainfall totals generally less than an inch are expected.

- Limited fire concerns may develop during the upcoming
  workweek due to a combination of low humidity and the ongoing
  drought conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

To start off the weekend, we can expect another day of warm and
mostly dry weather across North and Central Georgia. As a result of
southerly return flow cloud cover will increase through the
afternoon and temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s (70s in
the mountains). Some of the latest hi-res guidance tries to paint
isolated showers developing this afternoon across parts of North GA.
While this can`t be completely ruled out, it`s unlikely any amount
of moisture aloft would be able to overcome the drier air still at
the mid and lower levels. Thus, better rain and thunderstorm chances
will largely hold off until the overnight/predawn hours on Sunday.

High amplitude midlevel ridging and surface high pressure will
continue to be nudged eastward through the day today as a digging
longwave trough with several embedded shortwaves advances across the
Central US. At the surface, a low pressure system tracking towards
southern Michigan will deepen and an attendant cold front extending
southward from the low will move through North and Central Georgia
on Sunday. The onset of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
across North and west Georgia will occur during the predawn hours of
Sunday and spread south and east heading into the afternoon. Sadly,
this next batch of rainfall is not expected to make a meaningful
impact on the ongoing drought conditions that plague the state.
Given the quick movement of this system, forecast rainfall totals
are still likely to be less than an inch. The higher totals, 0.5" up
to 1" will range across North GA (roughly north of I-20) and less
than 0.5" further south.

By the time, showers and storms reach our area early Sunday morning,
they will likely have congealed into a line given deep layer shear
oriented parallel to the front -- noted in the latest hi-res
guidance. At this time, widespread severe storms are not anticipated
with this next weather system. However, an isolated strong storm
within the line producing wind gusts 40 to 50 MPH remain a
possibility. Initially as the front moves into our northwest
zones, it will be more aligned with stronger forcing, so any
stronger storms to our west could briefly be maintained while
entering portions of northwest Georgia. Though through the day the
primary forcing becomes more and more displaced to our north as
the surface low advances NNE and trough deepens and swings
eastward. Additionally, cloud cover, the speed of this system and
drier air quickly entering the region on the back side of the
trough, will result in convection gradually loosing steam,
becoming more scattered/less organized and remaining below severe
limits overall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the Workweek:

The upcoming workweek should be defined by dry weather and low
humidity in the afternoons. Guidance from the GEFS and EPS suggests
less than a 5% chance of 0.10 inches of rainfall between Monday and
Friday. The only rain chances that even remotely register in our
forecast occur Tuesday afternoon in northwest Georgia (5 to 10%
chance of a light shower). These paltry rain chances are associated
with the passage of a moisture starved cold front in the ensemble
guidance. If you have outdoor plans, it is likely safe to assume
that Monday through Friday will be dry.

Sundays frontal passage and another cold front on Tuesday will
funnel drier air into Georgia from the Central U.S. and keep
relative humidity values depressed for most of next week. Monday and
Wednesday afternoons could see portions of north and central Georgia
approach critical fire weather conditions (25% relative humidity).
During the rest of the week near critical fire weather conditions
may occur. This is a classic setup where the current version of the
NBM tends to be bias in favor of higher surface dewpoints and
relative humidity values. Thus we went ahead and blended in some of
the NBM 10th percentile to push values low between Monday and
Friday. If confidence in the weather patter articulated above
increases, later shifts may chose to more aggressively blend in
guidance in the lower percentile of the NBM. Fire weather partners
should monitor the forecast this week, especially with the ongoing
drought conditions.

Temperatures during the upcoming workweek will generally be
agreeable, with afternoon highs in the 70s (60s in the mountains).
Slightly warmer weather will occur on Tuesday as and upper level
ridge passes overhead, and later in the week as more zonal flow
develops. The low humidity levels will favor radiational cooling
during the overnight hours, and as a consequence we should see some
of the first 30 degree readings of the season in the mountains this
week. Further south in the Atlanta Metro our morning lows could fall
into the 40s several times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions continue through the period. Calm or light SE winds
prevail overnight before switching to the SW side right around
12z. Winds switch back to the SSE side between 20-23z. FEW to SCT
cigs at 4-6kft are developing in west-central GA and will likely
move into CSG and the ATL sites over the next few hours. These
will prevail through the afternoon before scattering out. High
cirrus moves in around 06z ahead of an approaching cold front.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High confidence on all elements

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  58  72  45 /   0  10  80   0
Atlanta         82  61  73  48 /   0  40  80   0
Blairsville     76  55  65  39 /  10  50 100   0
Cartersville    83  61  73  43 /   0  60  90   0
Columbus        84  62  79  48 /   0  40  80   0
Gainesville     79  59  71  45 /   0  30  90   0
Macon           82  59  76  47 /   0  10  70   0
Rome            86  63  74  43 /   0  70  90   0
Peachtree City  82  60  75  44 /   0  40  80   0
Vidalia         82  59  80  51 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...07