616
FXUS62 KFFC 190525 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
125 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Key Messages:

- Summertime heat will persist with Heat Index values between
  95F and 105F (possibly higher Sunday into early next week).

- Scattered mainly afternoon and evening
  showers/thunderstorms (best chances over west-central and far
  north GA.

The forecast area is currently influenced by an upper level ridge
that is off the east Florida coast, north of the Bahamas. The
ridge extends into eastern/central GA but is breaking down across
north GA as a trough kicks east from the Central Plains. Remnants
of a tropical disturbance from earlier in the week along the
northern Gulf coast are spreading across east TX and west LA. Any
convection we see through this evening will be driven mainly by
daytime heating and weak post-storm outflow boundaries with no
real forcing or support for organized activity across the area.

Similar pattern will exist into Saturday with just a touch more
coverage of showers/storms possible across north GA as a weak upr
trough kicks east across the central Appalachians. The low-to-mid
lvl flow increases just enough to support a few stronger storms
during the afternoon/evening with locally heavy rain and brief
gusty winds.

Temperatures will continue to be warm, running at or just a few
degrees above normal for this time of year. Despite this, the
persistent heat will continue to be a concern with heat index
values topping 100F across a good portion of the area, especially
south and east of I-85.

DJN.83


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Key Messages:

    - Muggy, hot conditions will remain a concern late weekend
      into early next week. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
      for portions of the area Sunday-Tuesday.

    - Mainly isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms are
      expected over the weekend. Coverage will trend upward by
      Monday-Wednesday as a backdoor front looks to push into the
      area.

The midlevel subtropical ridge will be parked over the Southeast
at the onset of the long term period with hot temperatures being
the result. Humid conditions courtesy of abundant low-level
moisture will cause heat index values to be maximized during this
Sunday-Tuesday time frame with Monday continuing to favor the
hottest values. As such, Heat Advisory issuance is likely for at
least portions of the area where heat index values over 105 are
forecast with the highest probabilities across east-central
Georgia, though some areas farther north and west could reach
criteria on Monday.

Diurnal PoPs will remain fairly limited (isolated to low-end
chance for most) on Sunday with highest across far north Georgia.
By Monday into Tuesday, PoPs should trend upward as a bit of a
pattern change begins to take hold. As a trough pushes through New
England on Monday, a backdoor cold front will begin progressing
southwestward across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas. Deep
moisture ahead of this front will provide plenty of fuel for
diurnally-enhanced showers and storms with coverage likely being
maximized by Tuesday as the front nudges into the CWA. While there
does still remain model uncertainty regarding the progression of
this "wedge" front by Tuesday into Wednesday, there is fairly good
agreement that it will clear farther across the forecast area.
Some degree of drier air thus may filter into the area by
Wednesday into Thursday, which would affect the areal coverage of
showers and thunderstorms (as well as afternoon heat index
values). At this point, PoPs remain in the chance range with
highest probabilities shunting farther southward by this time.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Mid-/upper-level clouds are thinning a bit overnight, which may
set the stage for areas of MVFR/IFR clouds to develop (like what
occurred yesterday morning). A TEMPO for MVFR CIGs may be needed
at ATL (and some of the other sites) but will hold off until low
clouds actually begin to materialize. Patchy MVFR/IFR VIS will be
possible as well. Afternoon Cu will be ~3 kft to ~5 kft. Have a
mention of VCSH at all sites except MCN in the afternoon and early
evening. May end up going with a PROB30 for the 12z TAF issuance.
Winds will be WSW at 5-10 kts with gusts up to ~20 kts. Gusty,
erratic winds may occur with TS.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning low clouds and coverage of afternoon
storms. High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  75  95 /  20  20  10  20
Atlanta         75  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  30
Blairsville     67  86  69  88 /  40  60  30  60
Cartersville    73  92  73  93 /  30  50  20  50
Columbus        74  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  20
Gainesville     74  93  75  93 /  40  40  20  30
Macon           74  96  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
Rome            73  91  73  92 /  40  50  20  50
Peachtree City  71  94  73  94 /  20  30  20  30
Vidalia         76  96  77  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Martin