102
FXUS62 KFFC 150539
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1239 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Above average temperatures should continue through the coming
   workweek.

 - Lower relative humidity and dry fuels may lead to near
   critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon.

 - Soaking rainfall that would improve ongoing drought conditions
   is unlikely through at least next Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A largely uneventful short-term forecast is ahead through Saturday
night as continued high pressure brings mostly clear skies and above
normal temperatures. Surface high pressure will begin to flatten
into the northern Gulf on Saturday in advance of an incoming dry
cold front for Sunday, but aside from a few increasing higher clouds
late in the day, mostly sunny and warm conditions will prevail.
Saturday highs will run some 5-10 degrees above normal, reaching
well into the 70s areawide after morning lows primarily in the 40s.
Sunday morning lows will warm well above normal, mainly in the 50s
to near 60, in advance of the dry front. Gradually increasing
dewpoints ahead of the front will also prevent Fire Danger criteria
relative humidity values for the bulk of the area Saturday
afternoon, though some of our southeastern counties could reach the
25% threshold.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Forecast Trends & Considerations for Next Week:

With most of Georgia in drought conditions the focus of the forecast
continues to be on the next opportunity for rainfall. Unfortunately
trends in the ensemble guidance continue to shift drier. The cause
of this trend appears to be the stubborn nature of synoptic scale
pattern. The models want to break down the ridge in over the
Southeast in response to systems moving out of the West, but they
are under estimating the rigidity of the pattern and progressively
backing off. With this in mind, our forecast is free of meaningful
and widespread rainfall through Thursday. A limited potential
remains for light rain in north Georgia on Tuesday, but amounts look
limited (odds of 0.10 inches are below 35%) and this is the region
with the least drought concerns. GEFS and EPS members do lean toward
another opportunity for showers or thunderstorms between Thursday
and Saturday (85% of member have some rainfall). Spread in the
timing of the rainfall potential remains large and thus our forecast
is limited to lower end (15 to 35%) rain chances between Thursday
afternoon and Saturday. If it does rain during this period, any rain
will likely be limited to a 24 hour period. There are really no
indications that any event late in the week will have a significant
impact in terms of the ongoing drought conditions.

A dry frontal passage on Sunday should usher low surface dewpoints
(20 to 35 degrees) into the region on Monday. There is very little
in the way of cooler air behind the front in the guidance and thus
this looks like and event that will mainly drive down humidity
values Monday afternoon. Widespread relative humidity values in the
15 to 30% range are possible. Thus a Fire Danger Statement may (60%
chance) be needed for all of north and central Georgia on Monday
once fuel conditions are considered. At this time winds look like
they will remain below the criteria required for a Red Flag
conditions.

Regarding temperatures, nothing has changed in the recent
model runs that would drive us to reconsider the current forecast
for above average temperatures. If anything, the last 2 to 4 runs of
the GEFS and EPS suggest a trend in the warmer direction. A such
temperatures should be 8 to 16 degrees warmer than seasonal averages
next week, with many areas near the top of that range on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the ground this will translate to widespread afternoon
high temperatures in the 70s, with isolated 80s in central Georgia.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Light SW winds overnight will gradually pick up to 8-12kts after
16Z. VFR expected through the TAF period for both CIGs and VIS.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         58  74  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     53  66  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    56  74  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        51  78  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     58  73  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           52  78  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            58  76  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  54  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         52  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Vaughn