108
FXUS62 KFFC 110616
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
116 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - A hard freeze is expected tonight into Tuesday morning across
   most of north and central Georgia. A Freeze Warning is in
   effect.

 - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the northeast
   Georgia mountains through Tuesday morning where snowfall
   amounts up to 1 inch may cause slippery travel conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Much of the eastern CONUS is positioned underneath a potent,
high- amplitude longwave trough. The axis of this trough currently
runs through the Ohio Valley and southward towards the central
Gulf Coast, and will continue to advance eastward today and
tonight. To illustrate the anomalous potency of this trough, model
00Z soundings from the ECMWF ensemble hint that heights at the
850 mb, 700 mb, and 500 mb level will all be near record lows for
the month of November. A strong vortmax is also embedded within
the trough and is currently advancing southeastward from central
Kentucky towards eastern Tennessee. This vortmax is driving a
1035+ mb high and an Arctic airmass quickly towards the Southeast,
with a tight surface pressure gradient ahead of the high
contributing to gusty northwest winds (15- 25 mph and gusts as
high as 35 mph) further enhancing the CAA.

Temperatures in north Georgia will not warm appreciably from the
already cold start to the morning. Areas to the north of I-85 will
only rise into the upper 30s to low 40s at most. In higher
elevations of far northeast Georgia, temperatures are not expected
to get above freezing at all, with many locations reporting
temperatures still in the 20s at the time of this writing. The
Arctic airmass will not be as firmly in place in areas south of
the I-85 corridor just yet, with temperatures able to rise into
the mid 40s to near 50 this afternoon. These high temperatures
today will range from 20 degrees below daily normals in east-
central Georgia to as much as 30 degrees below daily normals in
the far northeast mountains.

The trickiest part of the short term forecast is the potential
for snow, so let`s dive into it:

The vortmax appears to be holding together quite well as it moves
closer to north Georgia, and will provide lift and a source of
shallow moisture that will push up against the mountains this
afternoon and evening. A layer of dry air is lingering near the
surface across north Georgia, though with temperatures remaining
in the 20s and 30s in the northern tier, it will not take much for
this layer to become saturated as moisture continues to stream in
ahead of the vortmax. In addition to model guidance (including
NBM and hi- res) underestimating the potential for snow to
overcome the dry layer, guidance is largely underestimating snow
ratios. This would normally make sense given we`re in mid-
November, though in this anomalously cold airmass, snow ratios are
currently on the order of 15-20:1 in the far northern tier.
Upslope enhancement can also be expected on north and west facing
slopes and on the ridgetops of far northeast Georgia. Because of
these reasons, we opted to trend higher on snowfall accumulations
for the afternoon forecast package. Total snow accumulations up to
one inch are now forecast, with locally higher snow accumulations
possible at elevations higher than 2000 ft.

The majority of snow accumulation in far north Georgia is
expected to be on grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces. For
accumulations on roadways, snow will have to overcome ground
temperatures still in the mid to upper 40s from recent warm
conditions. However, snow that melts on roadways will quickly
refreeze this evening into the overnight hours. Thus, ice and
slick spots on the road will lead to travel concerns into Tuesday
morning even after any snow comes to an end. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for portions of far north and northeast
Georgia from 1 PM this afternoon until 7 AM on Tuesday. Isolated
flurries may also be possible in locations as far south as the
Atlanta metro area, though accumulations are not expected outside
of the far northern tier.

While far north Georgia will contend with the potential for snow,
portions of central Georgia will instead be facing fire danger
concerns. HRRR and NBM 10th percentile were blended into the
dewpoints to better reflect the drier airmass within the
northwesterly flow. As such, locations in south-central Georgia
are forecast to see RH values drop to 25 percent or below for a
couple of hours this afternoon. These RH values combined with the
aforementioned strong, northwesterly winds this afternoon have
warranted the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement in central
Georgia until 6 PM this evening. While winds will serve to quickly
dry out 10-hr fuels, they are not expected to reach the requisite
6% for a Red Flag Warning at this time.

Late tonight, the vortmax will phase with the longwave trough as
the trough axis clears the area to the east. Then, together, they
will begin to lift northeast out of the area and towards the mid-
Atlantic coast, with northwesterly upper flow setting up behind
the trough. At this point, any lingering snow and flurries will
come to an end. A widespread hard freeze (temperatures of 28
degrees or less) is expected tonight into Tuesday morning across
all of north and central Georgia. As the potent Arctic High
settles in over the Southeast, the pressure gradient will loosen
and winds will diminish to around 6-12 mph. The influence of the
high and dry northwesterly flow aloft will also scatter out
lingering cloud cover after midnight. The combination light winds
and clear skies will promote efficient radiational cooling.
Temperatures will thus plummet into the low to mid 20s across the
majority of north Georgia (even some upper teens possible in the
highest elevations) and mid to upper 20s in central Georgia.
Another Freeze Warning is in effect overnight as a result, which
will likely end the frost/freeze program for the season given this
should completely end the traditional growing season. Please
ensure kids are bundled up in the morning for the bus stop, ensure
any outdoor animals will be safe and comfortable, protect any
sensitive vegetation, and protect any exposed pipes or faucets.

As surface high pressure becomes settled over the Southeast on
Tuesday, the airmass will begin to moderate and a warming trend
will begin. After the frigid start to the morning, high
temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 40s to low 50s.
These highs will still be 15-20 degrees below climatological
normals, but not quite as cold as this afternoon. Lighter winds
and plenty of sunshine on Tuesday will also prevent wind chills
from feeling as oppressive as today. Fire Danger concerns will be
likely once again on Tuesday, with RH values dropping to 25
percent in central Georgia. However, the lighter winds should keep
the area outside of Red Flag criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

From mid-week through the start of the weekend, dry conditions
and gradually warming temperatures will lead to pleasant fall
weather across north and central Georgia. Wednesday morning will
be our last grasp of the cold air outbreak, as the day starts out
with temperatures in the low to mid 30s under mostly clear skies.
The overall airmass will warm up quite a bit during the day on
Wednesday, as ridging starts to build into the area from over the
Gulf. This feature looks like it will keep north and central
Georgia within a dry mid-level W/NW flow through at least
Saturday, before a trough potentially approaches the area on
Sunday, though confidence in that is low. Overall, expect high
temperatures to warm from the 60s on Wednesday, to the low to mid
70s through Saturday, while overnight lows climb back into the 40s
to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR through TAF period. Clouds are quickly coming to an end across
metro TAF sites, and will be completely gone by 07-08Z. SKC
through rest of TAF period. No precip or vsby issues expected.
Winds are beginning to ease but are still elevated, 7-12 kts with
a few gusts approaching 15-20 kts, all from NW. Expect much the
same through the afternoon tomorrow.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          47  33  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         48  36  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     42  28  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    49  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        53  32  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     46  35  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           51  32  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            51  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  50  33  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         52  32  67  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
GAZ005>009-014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Lusk