


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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683 FXUS62 KFFC 161852 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 252 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 249 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Warm and dry conditions continue, with no rainfall expected the rest of the work week. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sat into Sun, with rainfall totals generally less than half of an inch. - A second, weaker frontal passage during the middle of next week will usher in cooler and drier conditions areawide. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Mostly clear skies are continuing across the area Today. There is a dry back door front moving SW through the region Today but all were seeing from it it elevated easterly winds in the 8 to 12kt range. This front is ushering in the building high pressure ridge centered over the eastern great lake states. This ridge center is expected to move into the Carolinas by Fri afternoon then push off the GA/SC/NC coast by Sat morning. This ridge will bring in some slightly cooler daytime highs Fri but thats about it for the short term. Temps expected to stay in the 70s and 80s with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Saturday through Monday Night: Dry and warm conditions continue on Saturday as Georgia remains under the grasp of a mid-level ridge fleeting off to the east out over the Atlantic. This ridge is being pushed out by our next source of rain, a broad and deep mid-level trough that will be sliding across the Central US. In response to this, low to mid- level winds over Georgia will start to turn out of the south to southwest on Saturday, strengthening overnight into Sunday morning as a stout shortwave within the trough shoots across the MS and TN Valleys. The surge of SW flow will bring increased moisture, which combined with large-scale ascent from the nearby shortwave will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area starting late Saturday night. By Sunday afternoon, the cold front associated with this system will start to push across Georgia from the W/NW, with chances for showers and storms until it passes through and drier air starts to filter in. There is still plenty of uncertainty with how this setup will play out, but depending on the timing of the front and how much instability develops in the area, a few strong to even marginally severe storms may be possible. That part of the forecast will become clearer in the next day or two. One thing we do have confidence in, is that any rainfall from this system, (which looks to be generally 0.25"-0.5" or less), will not make much of a dent in the ongoing drought conditions. Behind the front, surface high pressure and weak mid-level ridging will move over the region, with northwest flow ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass for Sunday night through early Tuesday morning. Low temps during this period may be the coolest we`ve seen so far this season, falling into the upper 40s to low 50s for Mon and Tue mornings. High temps on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday through Thursday: During the day on Tuesday, longwave mid-level troughing will cover most of the eastern US, with an embedded shortwave and associated cold front rapidly moving across the OH and TN Valleys. This system will not have much moisture to work with, but could bring a few showers or storms to parts of north GA from late Tuesday morning through the evening. Conditions will not be favorable for any strong or severe storms. Following this front will be a reinforcement of a dry and cool airmass that will stick around through at least Thursday. Rain chances will be near zero for Wed and Thu, with temps being cooler than Mon/Tue (finally back to near or even below normal for the time of year!). Highs will likely be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Temps would be about 5-10 degrees cooler than that in the north GA mountains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Mostly clear skies with no precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs expected. Winds are mainly out of the E to NE but have seen some NW winds. Wind speeds are a little elevated with with speeds in the 8-12kt range. will see speeds diminish to 5kt or less overnight. Winds speeds will then pick back up Fri but should stay 8kt or less through Fri evening. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 52 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 57 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 49 73 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 55 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 54 76 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 53 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 54 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 54 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 53 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...01