584
FXUS62 KFFC 021015
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
615 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

 - A glimpse of fall weather through Saturday with dry and breezy
   conditions and temperatures around normal.

 - Elevated fire weather conditions possible across portions of
   west-central Georgia this afternoon into the evening.

 - Isolated thunderstorms should return to north and central
   Georgia between Sunday and Thursday, but widespread soaking
   rainfall is unlikely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Pleasant, fall-like conditions across north and central Georgia through
Friday as mid-level ridging and surface high pressure expand
across the region from the north. The breezy east-northeast winds
wrapping around these features will continue to usher in a very
dry and mild airmass. Skies will be mostly clear, with the rain-
free weather only worsening ongoing drought conditions across
parts of the area. Temperatures will return to around normal for
this time of year, with highs today and Friday in the mid to upper
70s. Overnight lows will be in the the mid to upper 50s. Temps
will be about 5-10F cooler than that in the higher terrain of
north GA, with highs in the low to mid 70s, and lows in the upper
40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

This Weekend:

A large upper level ridge will remain parked over the Eastern
U.S. through the weekend. The orientation of the ridge will shift
on Saturday, flattening on its southern side and allowing east to
west flow to develop in Georgia. This change won`t mean much for
our weather pattern on Saturday, but on Sunday it should allow an
easterly wave to move into the state. As this feature moves in
surface dewpoints will climb and the opportunity for thunderstorms
will return. The degree of thunderstorm coverage with this
feature remains uncertain in the ensemble guidance. The majority
of GEFS and EPS members favor some rain all the way into north
Georgia. However the coverage and intensity of any rainfall will
depend on the strength of the ridge. A stronger ridge would likely
shunt the easterly wave further south and favor rainfall in
southern Georgia. While a greater reduction in ridges intensity
would allow for more widespread storm activity in north Georgia.
One thing the ensemble guidance does seem to agree upon, is that
this won`t be a widespread and soaking rain event. The odds of an
inch of rain via both the EPS and GEFS barely get above 25% in
central Georgia and are generally below 20% in north Georgia. As
such we do not expect this event to significantly improve drought
conditions in the state.

Temperatures over the weekend will be mild with afternoon highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Modest surface dewpoints,
especially on Saturday, will lead to pleasant temperatures limited
humidity in the evening.

Early Next Week:

Surface dewpoints should remain elevated in Georgia through the
middle of next week. As the core of the ridge gradually shifts
towards the Atlantic this moisture should combine with diurnal
heating to produce isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
between Monday and Thursday. Based on the trends in the ensembles,
forecaster confidence in storm chances falls of quickly after
Tuesday.

A limited warming trend is favored next week, though most people
probably won`t notice it much. Expect a mix of highs in the upper
70s and low 80s on Monday to become widespread 80s by Wednesday.
These values would be 4 to 9 degrees above seasonal averages.
Higher surface dewpoints will also limit morning lows to the 60s
for most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions with primarily SKC are expected through the 12Z
TAF period. Winds will remain elevated out of the E/ENE at 7-12kts
with occasional gusts to 20-22kts from late morning through early
evening each day.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High confidence all elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  54  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         77  58  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     73  49  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    79  57  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        82  61  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     75  55  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           78  59  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            82  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  77  56  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         81  61  83  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Culver