951
FXUS62 KFFC 131921
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
221 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - Above average temperatures are favored through the upcoming
   workweek.

 - Soaking rainfall that would improve ongoing drought conditions
   is unlikely through at least next Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Surface high pressure will remain over the Southeast through the
short term period, slowly advancing eastward over the short term
period. As a quick moving mid-level shortwave swings northeastward
into the north Atlantic, a weak ridge will set up within
northwesterly flow to the north of the region which will reinforce
the surface high. The influence of the high should inhibit any
precipitation chances today and tomorrow. With the center of the
high becoming positioned over the CWA overnight into Friday, low
level winds will diminish and become light/variable. Temperatures
will continue their steady climb under the high pressure regime.
Aside from slightly lower temperatures in the northeast mountains,
highs today will range from the mid 60s in the far northern tier to
the mid 70s in east-central Georgia - about 4-8 degrees above daily
normals. On Friday, highs will largely be in the low to mid 70s
areawide. RH values on Friday afternoon are forecast to reach or
briefly drop below 25 percent in central Georgia. With fuels
remaining dry, a Fire Danger Statement cannot be ruled out if
dewpoints trend lower in ensuing forecasts. With clear skies, dry
air, and light winds, radiational cooling will be efficient
overnight, with lows dropping to the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Temperatures Remain Mild:

Guidance from the ensembles favors a longwave trough in the West and
a ridge of wavering intensity in the Southeast U.S. through the
middle of next week. For Sunday, Monday and Tuesday confidence in the
temperature outlook is high due to very low spread (2 to 4 degrees)
amongst the 80 GEFS and EPS members. Thus all three days should
bring temperatures that are 8 to 14 degrees above seasonal averages.
For most of the state this will translate into highs in the 70s (60s
in the mountains) and lows in the 50s. The trough currently
battering the West Coast will move eastwards on Tuesday. Though it
should weaken significantly as it reaches the eastern third of the
country, it does insert some uncertainty into the temperature
forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Overall spread in the guidance
remains fairly high for both days, with 5 to 10 degrees of spread
between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GEFS and EPS data.
Given that run to run trends have been suggesting a weaker trough
passage on Tuesday, our forecast leans towards the 75th percentile
and continued warmth.

Very Limited Rainfall Opportunities Next Week:

The outlook for needed rainfall in Georgia remains pretty bleak
through next week. The passage of weak upper level trough on Sunday
could bring some light rainfall to north Georgia. However, this
feature will be working to generate precipitation in a moisture
starved environment (PW values below 1"), and this suggests a high
likelihood of little to no rainfall. The odds of 0.10" of rain are
below 10% for the entire state (per the GEFS and EPS).

As noted above, the remains of the storm currently impacting the
West Coast will drift towards us on Tuesday. This feature will
expend most of its energy over the Rockies and by the time it moves
east of the Mississippi the GEFS and EPS both suggest it will be a
shell of its former self. The is also a distinct pattern in the
guidance favoring north Georgia for any rainfall, and high
likelihood that most of the state will remain dry.

The best shot at meaningful rain next week continues to look like it
will occur between Thursday and Saturday. Confidence in this is low,
due to significant variations amongst the EPS and GEFS members and
the range of the forecast. The overall pattern late in the week,
whereby the ridge in the Southeast breaks down, also suggests that
caution is the best approach.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period,
with only some passing cirrus. Winds will be NW at 6-10 kts this
afternoon and evening. Winds will begin to weaken after 01-02Z as
surface high becomes centered over the area, becoming 3 kts or
less and variable through much of the day on Friday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  69  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         45  70  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     37  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    39  71  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        43  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     42  69  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           41  73  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            41  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  40  73  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         43  73  43  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...King