989
FXUS62 KFFC 251833
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
133 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025


...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

 - Rain chances return today and linger through tomorrow. Amounts
   range from 0.5" or less south of I-85 and 0.75-1.5" across far
   north Georgia, with isolated pockets up to 2-2.5" possible.

 - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather
   across much of north and central Georgia today. Damaging winds
   and hail will be the primary hazards, though an isolated
   tornado cannot be ruled out.

 - Drier and cooler weather persists through the end of the week with
   the next round of rain holding off until early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

After several warm and mild days across the Southeast, a pattern
change is on our doorstep this morning. A surface low pressure
system lifting across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region
will continue to deepen over the course of the day today. Its
attendant cold frontal boundary spans a majority of ECONUS, and will
sharpen and sweep eastward as the low strengthens. Ahead of the
front, moisture has begun to rebound, with dewpoints initially in
the mid-50s surging into the 60s by midday. North and central
Georgia will be fairly well-removed from the parent system, but
sufficient forcing should exist to support the development of a line
of showers and thunderstorms that will move from northwest to
southeast across the forecast area during the afternoon and evening
on Tuesday.

The parameter space remains a bit tricky, and is likely to be
subject to the mismatch that can be typical of cool season setups.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across MS/AL at the time of
writing of this AFD (coincident with the arrival of best shear -- 35-
45+ kts) out well ahead of what will become a quasi-organized line
of convection later today. However, development of best -- but still
modest -- instability will come with the onset of diurnal heating
this afternoon. A glance at SPC mesoanalysis reveals effectively 0
surface-based or most-unstable CAPE (including elevated instability)
across either north or central Georgia, owing to a combination of a
strong capping inversion and cloud cover. As such, as convective
activity moves properly into north Georgia over the next couple of
hours before daybreak, severe chances (any hazard) remain very low.
It remains to be seen if the cloud cover associated with this
potentially redeveloping convection ahead of the line eats away at
our ceiling instability-wise.

That said, HiRes guidance suggests that later today, surface-based
CAPE will be in the neighborhood of 500-1200 J/kg (perhaps more or
less depending on AM evolution), with weaker shear as the main axis
of the jet will have exited. Despite this, SRH on the order of 150-
250 m2/s2 will linger across a majority of the forecast area. Expect
this afternoon window -- where discrete cells may form ahead of a
more organized line/cluster of storms -- to be the one that carries
our primary chances of seeing any severe hazard (damaging winds,
hail, a tornado). Frontal forcing/convergence is likely to be
stronger later, and may be sufficient to overcome the loss of
daylight/gradual loss of instability and weaker lapse rates. All
this to say, there is a risk for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms for much of north and central Georgia. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlooked a majority of the forecast area
within a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk for severe weather, with
probabilities skewed toward the later window -- generally afternoon
through nightfall. Given shear orientation along the line, the
primary concern will be the potential for damaging gusts with a
lower chance to see some hail in any stronger, more discrete storms.
That said, within any more organized/self-sustaining portions of the
line or any stronger discrete cells ahead of the line, a tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Additionally, progged PWATs of 1.2-1.3" are at/above the 90th
percentile, so any storms that form (regardless of their intensity)
will be efficient rainfall producers. With the potential for
multiple rounds of convection, isolated nuisance is be possible, and
may be exacerbated by continued leaf-fall is urban areas. Widespread
flooding concerns seem unlikely due to our antecedent drought
conditions/dry soils.

Moving into Wednesday, frontal convection will be ongoing across the
southern half of the forecast area through the night, continuing
into the afternoon. Instability will gradually taper off after dark,
but with meager shear remaining, cannot rule out an errant strong to
severe thunderstorm late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Much drier air
will filter in behind the front (dewpoints in the upper-30s to 50s
as opposed to the 60s), so expect fairly rapid clearing into the
afternoon. Most locations will see a return to sunny skies before we
lose daylight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

High pressure will begin building across the Southeast in wake of
the front Wednesday Night promoting drier and cooler weather just in
time for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Forecast high temperatures on
Thursday will range from the upper 40s in North GA to upper 50s
further south. A secondary push of drier and cooler air invades the
region thanks to the main midlevel trough digging across the eastern
US on Thursday. So by Friday morning temperatures are likely to be
at or below freezing across most of North and Central GA warming
only into the 40s and 50s by the afternoon. Temperatures will slowly
warm through the weekend as high pressure remains in place.
Any additional precipitation should hold off until early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
Showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the area this
afternoon. Will continue to see precipitation through tonight
ending a few hours before daybreak as the front moves SE. Will see
Mainly MVFR and VFR ceilings today and tonight but may see some
IFR ceilings with the frontal passage between 01z-06z Wed. Once
the front moves through Winds will turn from the SW to the West
and continue to turn to the NW through Wed afternoon. Wind speeds
expected to stay in the 6-12kt range with some higher gust in and
around any stronger storms.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  67  36  52 /  80   0   0   0
Atlanta         58  65  36  51 /  90   0   0   0
Blairsville     50  59  28  44 /  90   0   0   0
Cartersville    53  64  33  50 /  80   0   0   0
Columbus        59  70  37  57 /  80   0   0   0
Gainesville     56  64  36  50 /  90   0   0   0
Macon           61  73  37  57 /  70  20   0   0
Rome            55  65  36  54 /  70   0   0   0
Peachtree City  55  66  33  53 /  80   0   0   0
Vidalia         63  77  40  60 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01