439
FXUS63 KFGF 111725
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon east of the Red
  River Valley with a marginal chance for severe storms.

- More rain chances this weekend into next week with a 30%
  chance for more than 1" over a 3 day period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Skies remain mostly clear with sustained winds approaching 30
mph in some locations. This should be peaking within the next
few hours before diminishing as the main system continues to
trudge northeastward. For this reason, impacts should be sub-
advisory criteria and a Wind Advisory is not anticipated.

UPDATE
Issued at 940 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Showers have cleared the area entirely and some stratocumulus
has developed along the backside of the main surface low.
Impacts through the day will continue to be very limited with
the only impact being gusty winds in the 20s this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Showers have moved out except in the far east where some
sprinkles will remain through 8am. Watching to see how
dewpoints behave today and if we will will need to lower them to
better capture min RH through so far no indication to stray
from forecast. Skies clearing behind the line of showers with
winds expected to pick up by 9am with the gustiest conditions
in northeast North Dakota where wind gusts up to 35 mph could be
seen. Remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...Synopsis...

Showers currently moving east across northwest Minnesota this
morning along a cold front with the attendant low northwest of
Brandon Manitoba. As the low continues east amid westerly 500mb
flow we begin to dry out with mid level ridging building in
through the day. Steep near sfc lapse rates remain today,
helping to maximize momentum transfer and create breezy
conditions today as we remain well mixed. RH as low as the mid
30s with sustained winds in the low 20s gusting over 30mph in
northeast North Dakota will create good burning conditions.
Unlikely to approach near critical conditions with the limited
RH potential but gusty winds may still create difficult
conditions at times.

...Wednesday severe...

Beyond today ridging continues to shift east with aid from another
low amplitude trough and attendant cold front Wednesday
afternoon. High based thunderstorms (~2000m) are expected to
form along and ahead of this front. Primary forcing will be in
northwest Minnesota in the afternoon with only a 70% chance for
SBCAPE to exceed 1500 J/KG in our area. Bulk shear of 50+ kts
(largely aided by strong 700-500mb flow) will support organized
convection with wind up to 60 mph and hail to 1 inch, though
early runs of higher res CAMs covering this period generally
show the greatest threat to be to our south and east. A slower
mid level trough could bring the threat further into our area
but the trend has been for a more progressive wave over the past
24 hours.

With the core of the ridge overhead Wednesday expect the warmest day
of the year for most thus far across the region with highs
widely reaching into the 80s with a few areas in the valley
seeing enhanced mixing from downslope westerly winds off the
escarpment possibly helping a few areas tap the 90 mark. At
least it will be a dry heat with Tds in the 50s. Cooling off
back into the 70s for the Thursday/Friday period with westerly
flow aloft keeping us in a warm and dry continental airmass.

...Weekend rain chances...

Surprisingly good agreement between global ensembles later in the
week that long wave ridging will yield to a shortwave passing to
our south amid southwest flow bringing warm air advection and
deformation type rain to the upper midwest late week with a 40%
chance for > 0.25". A second more potent pacific northwest
trough then propagates east thorugh the weekend arriving in the
Northern Plains/ Canadian Prairies early next week with better
overall synoptic support through ensembles diverge by the
weekend on timing and track limiting confidence past the initial
late week wave.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR ceilings will prevail for the TAF period, with isolated MVFR
for all TAF sites except FAR possible through 00z. After that,
winds will diminish this evening and skies will remain VFR. Low
level wind shear will arise after 06z and last through at least
14z. Thunderstorms may develop around 16-18z near GFK/FAR but
confidence is too low to add TSRA to the TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux/TT
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Perroux