765
FXUS63 KFGF 180529
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1129 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Still fairly quiet with nothing reaching the ground in the CWA
yet. A few very minor tweaks to what we had going, but no major
changes.

UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Will continue to keep some low POPs along our western and
southern borders in case any of the very weak radar returns
currently out north of Jamestown manage to drop a few sprinkles
or flurries in our area. Still looks like the bulk of the
precipitation will remain to our south, with minimal impacts for
southeastern ND and west central MN.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Tweaked POPs a bit for current radar trends. Main activity
continues to be well to our south with the upper low, although
there has been some light returns developing in central ND with
a weak northern branch vort. HREF still shows some low
probabilities for mixed precip mainly in our southwest tonight.
Not thinking much will reach the ground or bring impacts, but
will continue to monitor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...Synopsis...

Split flow continues across the Central and Northern Plains today,
with an upper low traversing northern Nebraska and southern South
Dakota. The northern portions of this low will bring a slight chance
for light rain into southeast North Dakota tonight; however, with
dry air in place, much of this precipitation will struggle to reach
the surface. The remainder of Tuesday looks quiet, with minimal
chances for precip and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. The next
chance for precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon through
early Thursday morning. This will precede another H5 trough and cold
front, with the upper low moving across northern Manitoba and into
the Hudson Bay Region. Northwest flow follows the frontal passage,
then prevails into the weekend, with ridging filling in slowly by
early next week. There remains a bit of uncertainty regarding a
larger scale pattern shift as we approach the weekend; however,
confidence is quite low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions as mid and high clouds move across the forecast
area. Winds have dropped below 10 kts and will become more
southeasterly as we head towards morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR