553
FXUS63 KFGF 041148
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
648 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth again today.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Saturday evening across most of eastern North Dakota,
  extending into northwest Minnesota.

- Rain over most of northeastern North Dakota Saturday night into
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Towering cu still extending across portions of northwestern MN
out ahead of the front in the warm air advection. However, radar
returns are a lot weaker than earlier this morning and think the
overall activity will continue to dissipate as the low level jet
weakens. Made some minor tweaks to POPs for the next few hours,
but main show for convection will hold off until later this
afternoon and into tonight.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft continues today, with the next
significant shortwave coming out of the main trough in the
Rockies out into the Dakotas tonight. This will help push a
surface trough and cold front into the area tonight and Sunday,
finally bringing much cooler temperatures. A bit of uncertainty
with the timing of various reinforcing shortwaves as we head
into next week, but could see some temps dipping into the 30s
during the early mornings Monday through mid-week.

...Heat today...

Warm air advection continues overnight, and 850mb temps in the
low to mid 20s C will move into our southern counties later
today. The wind shift to the northwest is just now entering our
far northwestern counties, and should only make it through
northeastern ND and the central Red River Valley before stalling
out this afternoon. While at least some high and mid cloud will
move into the south ahead of the front, there will be a fair
amount of sunshine and plenty of southerly winds to keep the
boundary layer well-mixed. Southeastern ND and portions of
northwest and west central MN ahead of the front will again
climb into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Record highs are
85 to 87 for Grand Forks and Fargo, so well within reach unless
the front speeds up significantly.

...Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening...

Plenty of warm air and modest dew point near 60 degrees will set
up some instability this afternoon and evening. HREF has 80 to
90 percent probability of over 1000 J/kg of cape and even a 40
percent chance for over 2000 J/kg. The best deep layer bulk
shear remains behind the cold front, but in the area of
instability there is some 25 to 40 kts that would be sufficient
if the cap is broken. The forcing won`t really be coming into
our area until after peak heating, so severe threat is still
conditional and will continue to keep messaging for 1 out of 5
risk or marginal. Hodographs and model soundings seem like hail
and damaging wind gusts would be the largest threats.

...Rain tonight into Sunday...

ECMWF EFI has 90th to 99th percentiles for high QPF from central
ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities from the HREF of over an
inch of accumulation over that same area are over 80 percent,
but going over 2 inches drops probs down to 20 percent with a
few isolated spots up to 40 percent. Full NBM is a little more
bullish on heavy rain, with up to 50 to 60 percent probability
of over 2 inches of QPF near Devils Lake. Overall, rain looks
likely tonight into Sunday, and could see some soaking amounts
in some areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Stratus at KDVL taking ceilings down to IFR, but there will be
at least a little bit of recovery back to MVFR and VFR later
today. Rest of the TAF sites VFR as mid and high clouds will
increase. A cold front moving through the area will shift winds
to the north, and has already moved through KDVL. The boundary
should be at KGFK by mid- morning and KTVF and KFAR by early
afternoon. At that point, the front stalls out and even retreats
a bit, with winds at KFAR all over the place and eventually
returning to a more southerly direction. Some thunderstorms
possible this evening, at mainly the ND sites and KTVF, although
not confident enough to include at this point. Better chances
for more showers and rain behind the front, so have precip
coming later tonight. Some MVFR ceilings possible behind the
front, particularly at the more northern and western airport
locations.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR