130
FXUS63 KFGF 111752
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional periods of light snow through late tonight/Friday
  morning with less than an inch of new accumulation.

- Arctic front arrives after midnight tonight into Friday with a
  period of wind speeds 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph with
  potential travel impacts, including a 40% chance for
  advisory- level impacts from blowing snow.

- Brief but intense cold snap Friday and Saturday, including
  wind chills -30F or colder. 20 pct chance of wind chills
  reaching -40F or colder early Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

A quick update here to mention that we have issued an SPS
through early afternoon from Barnes county northward into the
Devils Lake Basin for freezing drizzle. Webcams from the NDDOT
show that icing is occuring over this area. As mentioned
previously, dry air aloft will likely continue to drive
freezing drizzle through the afternoon until the column begins
to saturate ahead of the approaching cold front.

UPDATE Issued at 1038 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Active this morning at the WFO, with multiple facets of winter
weather to investigate. First is the wave responsible for light
snow this morning across portions of the area. As the wave
continues to push south and east, we are losing ice aloft,
particularly in the Devils Lake Basin. We have not received any
reports of freezing drizzle at this time. However soundings
show a sufficiently saturated surface layer (about 1-2 Km), and
keep that dry air aloft. Soundings hold this general profile
into the afternoon. Therefore, this will be something to monitor
over the next few hours through webcams, surface obs and any
reports we may receive.

Otherwise, attention is turning towards the light snow that will
fall tonight, followed by gusty northwest winds that will last
into Friday.

UPDATE
Issued at 611 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Clouds continue to increase from the west with the sliver of
clear sky in NW MN shrinking. Initial light snow on radar is
not reaching the ground as dry air beneath cloud layer. But
airmass does saturate enough so that as you get back to
Bottineau to Harvey there is some light snow. Radar returns
remain weak though...but there is some fine light snow falling.
I foresee some light snow at times progressing gradually east
this morning. BIS mentioned some fzdz in north central ND
mainly south and west of Minot. Something to watch but attm
think that airmass will stay west of the fcst area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...Synopsis...

The Pacific jet continues to stream moisture along the BC and
Washington state borders into northern Montana and then
southeast from there into South Dakota. Next week pattern
becomes zonal but remains with a strong jet from the Pacific and
thru southern Canadian prairies. This will allow for milder
airmass to spread east, but how mild is uncertain due to
snowcover and potential cloud cover. NBM temps for Tuesday
showing above 32F all areas may be a tad high due to this.

...Light snow chances today into Friday morning and blowing
snow concerns Thursday night into Friday...

Next wave in this strong jet is causing snowfall early this
morning with potential freezing rain southern Alberta, southwest
Saskatchewan into Montana and into western/southwest ND early
this morning. This area of light snow/mixed precip will continue
southeast ward with most of the impacts staying to our
south/west. Thus no advisories today for wintry precip in
eastern ND or northwest/west central MN. There is a broad area
of 700-850 mb warm advection on backside of sfc high spreading
light snow thru the area today, but sub 850 mb layer is quite
dry limiting the amount of snow reaching the surface initially.

A second period of light snow with accumulations mostly half
inch range will occur in conjunction with arctic front which
arrives into DVL basin near midnight and then moves east thru
the valley and into MN pre-dawn. Model soundings do show max
wind potential of sustained 23-25 kts with gusts 32 kt....though
that looks to be a top end. This may occur with the snow
exiting and thus combo of falling snow and the wind may overlap
for a few hours Thursday overnight/early Friday. Anticipate low
snowfall rates and with the sustained winds near 25 mph
probability of advisory conditions due to blowing snow travel
impacts and reduced visibilities look to rise a bit to 40
percent based on also temps falling thru the single digits to
around zero.

If winds are higher (closer to 30 mph sustained),
widespread/numerous whiteouts leading to warning-type impacts
will be possible (10% chance of occurring). Further degrading
confidence in severity of visibility reductions is whether or
not precipitating HCRs are present behind the front. There is a
signal for this to occur, but predictability in snow rates and
coverage of these are too low to message this scenario
confidently, as is often the case for storm-scale convective
phenomena.

...Dangerous Wind Chills Friday-Sun AM...

In addition wind chills may reach cold advisory levels late
tonight and likely -30F and lower wind chills thru daytime
Friday into Saturday for many areas. 20 pct chance of wind
chills reaching -40F and lower for northeast ND and northwest MN
at night/early morning hours Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

A complicated TAF period over the next 24 hours. Starting with
today, winds will be light out of the south/southeast. Ceilings
will start out as VFR at most TAF sites, KDVL will be the
exception as periods of IFR have been observed and will continue
through the afternoon. Next up is tonight. A cold front will
pass through all terminals from west to east. Behind the front
winds will pick up out of the northwest, with gusts to 30 knots.
As the front passes through, there will likely be a brief
period of extremely poor visibility driven by a combination of
falling and blowing snow. Visibilities during this period will
be one mile or less. In the wake of the front, elevated winds
will continue through the rest of the night into all of Friday
morning. With a blowable snowpack on the ground, visibility
reductions are likely, but to what degree remains uncertain.
For now, prevailed MVFR visibilities through Friday morning.
However, it should be noted that a few snow showers are also
forecasted through the morning, and wherever they track will
likely result in periodic lower visibilities. If winds are
slightly stronger then what is in the TAF, visibilities may also
be lower then the current forecast is calling for. Therefore
those flying Friday morning should continue to monitor the next
several sets of TAFs and aviation discussions closely.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty