587
FXUS63 KFGF 081753
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon in
  northwest and west central Minnesota...

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Relative humidity values are dipping into the 20s already within
portions of the Red River Valley into northwest and west-central
Minnesota. This along with gradually increasing winds for the
afternoon are justifying messaging of elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon within this locations.

UPDATE
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Focus today will be on near critical fire weather conditions
within Minnesota and potentially the Red River Valley.
Increasing southerly winds amid very dry air mass will drive
these conditions. Strongest winds will be in eastern ND, but the
intersection of driest air and increased winds looks to reside
in the Red River Valley. While fuels are not overly conducive
for rapid wildfire movement, they are starting to cure to a
point where messaging seems prudent.

UPDATE
Issued at 701 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Skies clear over the area. Temps remain variable within the Red
River valley with pockets of mid 30s but still pockets of a few
upper 20s mid and southern valley. Farther east....warm pocket
Fergus Falls to TRF, then mid 20s east of there Wadena to
Bemidji. Will let headlines go til expiration.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...Synopsis...

Temperatures are working out as expected as winds remain calm at
08z Baudette area southward thru lakes country, Bemidji, Wadena
areas. Temperatures in the calm areas are in the mid 20s Wadena
up thru Bagley to Baudette. South to southeast wind 5 mph are
occurring farther west toward the Red River in Minnesota and
temps are more variable with some pockets of upper 20s but a few
areas low-mid 30s more so far northwest MN. Same on ND side of
the valley with north valley mid 30s but local personal weather
stations and NDAWN shows some below freezing temps in between
Grand Forks and Fargo. With all this will leave the current
freeze warning as is. But freeze warning in the north valley may
well be able to be dropped early as temperatures even out more.

Sunny sky today, and as high moves southeast, do look for an
increase in wind speeds with 15-25 mph this afternoon in E ND
and the northern RRV, 10-20 mph thru much of northwest and west
central MN.

A quite strong 500 mb low drops southeast quickly from NW Canada
into central Manitoba Thursday and then toward Lake Superior
Friday. Limited moisture with this so any rain showers will
remain right near the low circulation, but as we head into
Thursday afternoon and night shower chances do look to increase
east of our fcst area thru eastern MN into NW Ontario. A cold
front moves thru Thursday late sout of this system, but airmass
behind this shows only brief cooling and this more to our east.

500 mb ridging into the area Friday into Saturday as an upper
level trough moves from the Pacific into western Canada and the
western US. Short waves coming northeast from this trough
expected to bring a chance for showers Sat night-Sunday to the
area, but fast moving wave and rain amounts average around one
half northwest MN with less than one quarter inch in eastern ND.


...Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions This Afternoon
Minnesota...

Driest airmass with southeast wind will be Red River and east
and with dew point temps in the 22 to 30 degree region, highest
along the Red River and lowest Bemidji area. RH values forecast
this aftn dropping into the 20 to 25 pct range in many areas of
NW MN with closer to 30 percent closer to the Red River and
parts of west central MN. Based on guidance from MIFC (MN Fire
Interagency) with dry fuels in many areas elevated wind or low
RH enough to bring near critical fire weather conditions. So
based on the forecast did go SPS for this for all of MN fcst
area. A few areas are iffy but not worth splitting hairs for an
SPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period at
all sites.

However, there will be impact from LLWS between 01Z-12Z tonight
for all sites. Winds rapidly increase and veer out of the
southwest in the low levels to 40kt around 2kft.

Additionally, gusty south-southeast winds to 27kt will impact
KDVL through 00Z. Other locations will also see south-southeast
winds through 00Z between 10-20kt.

There is very little chance for fog (less than 2%) given dry
conditions and a lingering breeze through the overnight hours.

Thursday will start with breezy south-southwesterly winds,
lessening into the afternoon as a front approaches.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ