116
FXUS63 KFGF 091924
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very difficult travel conditions are expected today, with
  heavy snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and ice. The line
  between freezing rain and snow is expected to be sharp, with 3
  to 6 inches or more snow to the northeast of the line, and up
  to a tenth of an inch of ice to the south.

- Winds increase this afternoon, with gusts of 50 mph or higher.
  Areas with snow on the ground, or actively falling, will see
  visibility reductions. The highest winds are expected in
  southeast North Dakota.

- Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 70
  percent chance for winds chills to drop to -30 or colder.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The southerly low track has prompted additional adjustments as
the strongest winds/speed max should remain to the south, and
the high wind warning was cancelled except for Barnes, Sargent,
Ransom, and Richland counties (better chances for 60 mph are
now near the SD border region) in our CWA. Mixed precipitation
is also ending farther northeast/quicker while moderate to
heavy snow is over the Fargo/Moorhead metro. The heaviest snow
on radar shows a more defined back edge with the pivot favoring
this transitioning east Cass but more likely to linger in Clay.
This places the best chance of 6" just west of the metro,
though I can`t be ruled out.All winter products remain in
effect now through the night to cover CAA/HCR type shower
impacts after the main period of snow banding ends. Winds are
not as high now due to the low track and the potential for
widespread blowing snow and blizzard conditions are much lower
as a result. Any whiteout conditions would instead will be tied
to snow rates and where any lingering showers occur.

UPDATE Issued at 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The surface track of the low is lining up towards a slightly
more southern track and latest short range guidance is showing a
consensus towards this solution. This results in several
adjustments/trends in the short term evolution of this system
as the baroclinic zone is stalling just south of Devils Lake and
Fargo.

This track (along with the location of current pressure falls)
will place higher winds a little farther south lowering the
chances for blizzard impacts farther north, though blowing snow
and heavy rates will still create periods of white out
conditions. This also shortens the window for freezing rain
farther north and northeast, while placing the heavier snow band
potential about a county to the west in the northern RRV
(Langdon to Grand Forks To Detroit Lakes and Hubbard County)
where rates of 1"+ are more likely to occur this afternoon.
Fargo still remains on the edge of the Baroclinic zone, though
these trends do allow for a shorter duration/window of freezing
rain impacts in the metro.

The big picture remains the same though, with slick travel in
areas where an advisory remains in effect and difficult travel
in areas where Winter Storm Warnings are in effect (some
expansion of the warnings were made in west central MN to align
with the axis of potential heavier snow).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...Synopsis...

A strong clipper system moves into the area today, bringing mixed
precipitation, including freezing rain and moderately heavy snow.
Travel impacts are expected due to accumulations ranging from 2-7
inches of snow and up to 0.10 inch of ice. Winds increase this
afternoon, with some areas in southeast North Dakota seeing the
potential for near 60 mph gusts. Further north and east, gust
potential will be slightly lower; however, with falling snow,
visibility is likely to be reduced, sometimes sharply. Much colder
temperatures follow this system heading into Wednesday with highs
expected to only reach the teens. Another clipper brings additional
cold air and light snow to the area on Thursday and Friday, with the
coldest air of the season thus far for most areas. Dangerously cold
wind chills are possible each morning Friday through Sunday.

...Winter Storm and High Winds Today...

Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate today as a strong
clipper impacts the area. A strong thermal gradient, along with
favorable moisture advection, will interact along a sharp baroclinic
zone stretching from northwest to southeast. H5 low pressure
traverses this region today, with warm air and moisture overrunning
much colder air. Areas to the south of a line from about Devils Lake
to Mayville, to Detroit Lakes could see ice accumulations of up to a
tenth of an inch. To the north, most areas should see snow, which
could be heavy at times. Looking at snowfall accumulations, the 25th
percentile comes in around 2 inches, with 75th percentile totals
upwards of 6 inches. Additionally, a band of higher totals is
possible, representing the 90th percentile values of roughly 8
inches. For areas in southeast North Dakota, rain and freezing rain
will be the primary ptypes through late afternoon, with a change
over to snow this evening. Strong cold air advection, however, will
bring the risk of rapid freezing on surfaces, which could lead to
travel impacts. Winds increase rapidly as the system pushes east,
with northwest to north winds increasing this afternoon and evening,
producing gusts up to 60 mph in parts of southeast North Dakota.

...Very Cold Temperatures Friday into the Weekend...

A reinforcing surge of Arctic air pours into the area Thursday, with
sharply colder temperatures expected Friday through Sunday.
Afternoon highs on Friday will be in the single digits either side
of zero, with highs on Saturday remaining below zero. Overnight lows
are expected to fall into the 20s below zero Friday night and
Saturday night, with wind chills as low as 40 below zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Aviation impacts continue as a result of a winter storm moving
across eastern ND and northwest MN, with IFR conditions
prevailing into the evening and brief VLIFR conditions where
heavy snow occurs. Blowing snow and lingering snow showers could
keep MVFR conditions lingering into Wednesday morning, though
there should be gradual improving trends in visibility as winds
decrease and shower coverage diminishes. MVFR ceilings are more
likely to linger though after snow ends.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008-
     015-016-026-027-029-030-054.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006-
     014-024-028-038-039-049-052-053.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for NDZ038-049-052-053.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001>004-
     007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005-
     006-009-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR