641
FXUS63 KFGF 082109
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
309 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief period of moderate to heavy snow will bring a quick 1
  to 3 inches across northeastern North Dakota and northwestern
  Minnesota this afternoon and evening.

- Very difficult travel conditions are expected Tuesday from
  accumulating snow and ice, blowing snow, and very strong
  winds. Some uncertainty in the track of the system exists,
  which will determine where snow transitions to freezing rain.
  In the snow area, expect 3-5 inches with some some areas
  receiving 6 or more inches of snow.

- Strong winds will come in late Tuesday into Tuesday night
  behind the precipitation, with gusts up to 60 mph in
  southeastern North Dakota. Blowing snow across portions of
  northeastern North Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota will
  bring very difficult travel conditions with low visibility in
  addition to ice and snow.

- Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 70
  percent chance for winds chills to drop to -30 or colder.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...Synopsis...

Shortwave trough currently digging from southwestern Manitoba
into ND will continue diving into our northern counties tonight.
This will bring a quick shot of snow and winds briefly shifting
to the northwest before they return back to the south tomorrow
morning ahead of the next system. The shortwave tomorrow is
expected to be more vigorous, with a deeper surface low and
strong cold air advection behind it. The strong shortwave will
continue to be pretty fast moving, moving off into southern
MN/northern IA tonight and then the next reinforcing shortwave
coming down on Wednesday. North to northwest flow with periodic
clipper systems continues through the rest of the period, with
lower heights and colder air coming in on Friday. Some variation
on where exactly the baroclinic zone ends up over the weekend,
but decent agreement between ensemble members on northwesterly
flow and another clipper moving in Monday.

...Brief moderate to heavy snow through this evening...

First shortwave today has a fair amount of 850mb frontogenesis
with it as seen on SPC mesoanalysis. Snow currently moving
through northeastern ND has been showing fairly impressive
rates, with 1 to 2 inches per hour in some locations.
Fortunately the system is fast moving, so residence time will be
short and most likely snow amounts are a quick 1 to 3 inches.
Not out of the question that some spots could see more than 3
inches, but probability of that is around 10 to 20 percent.
Expect larger impacts tomorrow.

...Accumulating snow and ice tomorrow...

The stronger shortwave will dig into the northern Red River
Valley tomorrow. There are still minor differences in the track
of the surface low, with a difference of less than 50 miles
making a big difference in temperature profiles. It is still
unknown where exactly the rain/freezing rain/snow line will be,
along with the band of heaviest snow. However, probabilities of
at least a glaze of freezing rain are 60 to 90 percent along our
western and southern counties. Best chances for at least 4
inches of snow are mostly across the eastern Devils Lake Basin
into the Northern Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota,
with a 40 percent chance for 6 inches or more in some spots.
While exact amounts are still uncertain, travel impacts are
highly likely with at least some ice and snow accumulation
across the area. Portions of the Devils Lake basin and northern
Red River Valley look to have the best convergence of a bit of
freezing rain, up to 6 inches of snow, and blowing snow later in
the day to go ahead and put out a winter storm warning through
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Further east into MN, there will be a
strong 2 to 4 inches of snow but less wind and lower chances for
ice, so kept it advisory. Western Devils Lake basin will see a
bit less snow, and southeastern ND into far northwestern MN
mostly freezing rain and then rain. The icing impacts in
southeastern ND will be affecting by rising temperatures, with
some melting of ice and even crusting of snowpack possible with
temps rising into the mid to upper 30s. However, for simplicity
kept advisory through 00Z and later shifts can cancel early if
needed.

...High winds Tuesday night...

Very strong cold air advection and pressure rises on the
backside of the departing low will bring good confidence in high
winds Tuesday night behind the precipitation. BUFKIT soundings
for KFAR have a strong mixed layer up to 780mb and momentum
transfer as high as 55 kts Tuesday evening. Probabilities for
60 mph gusts or higher are 50 to 60 percent across southeastern
ND. Not sure how long the high gusts will last into the
overnight beyond the initial push of cold air advection, but
elected to go high wind warning all the way from 00Z to 12Z
Wednesday in the interests of headline simplicity.

...Cold temperatures Friday into the weekend...

Upper low/trough digging into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Friday will help bring a reinforcing surge of cold air into the
Northern Plains. This looks to be coldest of the season so far,
with lows in the teens and 20s below zero over the weekend and
highs on Saturday not even getting to the positive numbers. Mean
apparent T values around around -40 Saturday and Sunday
mornings. Likely will need some cold headlines of some sort, but
too early to exactly determine advisory or warning.


.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A bit of light snow or flurries reducing vis down to 2 miles at
a few spots. Ceilings are mostly MVFR but a few have broken up
to VFR or gone down to IFR. Some vis down to 1 mile or even
lower at times is not out of the question, with IFR conditions
for a while this afternoon and evening. After a bit of a break
back to MVFR/VFR overnight as this first round of snow, visibility
and ceilings will go down again towards the end of the period as
the next round of precipitation arrives. That system will have
the potential for FZRA as well as snow particularly at KDVL and
KFAR, so have a mention going at those sites. Winds will be
shifting around from the southeast to the west, then back to the
southeast before going north with the cold front coming down.
Speeds look like they will stay mostly in the 10 to 15 with
gusts up to 20 kts during the TAF period, but will be ramping
up quickly afterwards when they shift northwest for Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for NDZ007-008-015-016-026-027-029-030-054.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     NDZ024-028-038-039-049-052-053.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     NDZ024-028-038-039-049-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for NDZ006-014.
MN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ003-029.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     MNZ003-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for MNZ005-006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-
     030>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR