091
FXUS63 KFGF 100948
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather is expected through end of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...Synopsis...

Welcome to November, where low clouds will linger longer than
models suggest. High pressure center is moving into western MN
early this morning with surface winds turning light southerly in
E ND with a NW light wind in MN. Flow at the sfc-850 mb layer
where moisture is should turn increasing southerly today and
reach 25-30 kts midday and aftn at 925 mb and more southwest at
40 kts at 850 mb. This should help push the lower clouds that
cover all but the far western fcst area gradually out as winds
drier airmass at 850 mb should mix more toward the surface. But
we shall see, and have seen where low clouds hold in these
situations. Also will have significant increase in 300 mb
moisture in warm advection cirrus moving through today. So
regardless mostly cloudy sky. Temps will be a bit warmer today,
especially west of the valley where warmer air will begin to
reach the suface. Most areas into the low-mid 30s today with
near 40 possible Devils Lake. Also this early morning areas of
fog is forming in more areas along the low cloud, clear
interface roughly from Jamestown area north thru Devils Lake,
Lakota, to Langdon. So did expand fog mention a bit to include
most of the west fcst area.


500 mb short will move southeast well to our northeast tonight
into Tuesday with south winds becoming more northwest on
Tuesday. Cold advection is limited so NW wind shift and
hopefully no low clouds should help boost temps up a bit more
over today.

500 mb ridge builds east over the area Thursday-Friday period
with warmer temps, peaking on Friday with 50s in most areas.

500 mb pattern via ensembles from 00z runs indicate good
agreement in pattern becoming more southwest flow this weekend
and peristing into the following week. Though at this time 500 m
mb waves in this southwest flow appear progressive, this will
increase chances of precipitdation heading into the weekend.
Temps favor rain and at this time amounts dont look significant.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

MVFR stratus with localized pockets/shorter periods of IFR
ceilings continues to linger across eastern ND and northwest MN.
This will be very slow to clear west to east until winds shift
to the south and increase Monday morning. This may continue to
linger even into midday over parts of northwest MN as surface
high pressure may linger longer before winds shift/increase.
There is still a low chance for radiational fog in north central
ND but chances are very low (less than 20%) for impacts Monday
morning at KDVL.

Surface high pressure is currently moving est and northerly
winds should eventually become light and variable early in the
TAF period. Eventually surface gradient increases as surface
low pressure builds over the Canadian prairies and stronger
southerly flow will result in gusts peaking in the 25-30kt range
Monday afternoon (strongest in eastern ND).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...DJR