576
FXUS63 KFGF 030548
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1148 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger Monday with humidity in the mid 20s and
  wind gusts over 25 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Sentiments in the previous update remain valid. Mostly clear
skies and a lingering breeze will remain overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 710 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Gusty winds exceeding 45 mph have ceased, thus the Wind Advisory
has been allowed to expire. Breezy conditions will continue
through the overnight, along with some sprinkles before midnight
in Minnesota. Winds will increase again Monday starting around
mid to late morning into the 25-40 mph range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...Synopsis...

As is evident in water vapor imagery a compact shortwave now
centered over central northwest Ontario will continue east this
evening with an attendant cold front sagging south across the
Dakotas/Minnesota. Winds are already shifting from SSW in northwest
Minnesota to NW across NoDak. an offsetting slow weakening of the
PGF post front and a surge of CAA along the front will lead to gusts
in excess of 45 mph along and north of HWY 200 this afternoon and
thus a wind advisory remains in effect until 6pm.

- Windy Today

The cold front as it is now beginning to cross the red river Valley
has already produced numerous gusts over 40 mph in parts of
northeast NoDak with some as high as 55mph. CAA continues to surge
behind the cold front with gusts not yet markedly dropping in the
western part of the state indicating the PGF is not weakening as
much as was shown in guidance yesterday behind the front.

- Monday Fire Danger

Drier air resulting in lower RH values, along with continuing breezy
conditions will lead to elevated fire danger. Fuel status remains a
question, with recent rains likely keeping concerns on the lower end
of the spectrum. However, with gusts to 30 mph or so and RH values
as low as 25%, fire weather will be something to monitor. RH values
look to recover on Tuesday, and maintain those higher values
throughout the week.

As yet another wave works east out the rockies Tuesday/Wednesday mid
level WAA and transient FGEN should provide enough forcing for some
rain possibly snow. Low level dry air looks to be the main
uncertainty wrt to if anything falls as of now. After this early
week wave a more active jet pattern emerges with transient
troughing/ridging through the end of the week into next weekend. A
couple glancing blows from this more active jet look to bring
increased precip chances Thursday through the weekend but low
synoptic agreement between ensemble based clusters diminish
confidence in the potential for anything falling/accumulating across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Main impacts to aviation through 06Z Tuesday will be low level
wind shear and gusty winds.

Low level wind shear of 40-50kt between 1-2kft is forecast to
last through the overnight until around 12Z-16Z.

Winds will in the 10-25kt range through 15Z. Clear skies Monday
will reinvigorate winds into the 20-35kt range by the
afternoon. Winds remain out of the west-northwest throughout the
TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ