118
FXUS63 KFGF 031733
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The clipper train will remain in place into early next week.
  Periodic light snow chances, focused in NW Minnesota Thursday
  and in central into southeast North Dakota Saturday. Sub
  Advisory impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The forecast remains on track at midday with mostly clear skies
across the area. Temperatures are in the lower single digits for
most locations.

UPDATE
Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Skies have cleared nicely over the last 2-3 hours. Lingering
clouds only from Bemidji to Wadena and scattered stratocu SE ND
and rest of NW MN. Soundings support potential for CU
development with heating today, but also pretty dry at 850 mb
region. Cold morning with wind chills -10 to -25F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...Synopsis...

The coldest airmass of the week to move in today with minus 18C
to minus 22C 850 mb advecting into eastern ND and northwest MN
today into this evening. We are having clearing work south, but
also with the colder airmass quite a bit of ice crystals, and
also lingering flurries to start today. Highs today mostly
single digits with wind chills -15 to -25F below. Winds
diminish this evening and should be a quick fall off in temps,
especially southeast ND and west central MN where deeper snow
cover exists. Winds turn south overnight Wed night with likely
rising temps esp northeast ND. Next in our parade of clipper
systems will track from northern Saskatchewan to just east of
Winnipeg by 00z Fri. This track keeps the steadier snow Manitoba
into NW Ontario but brushing NW MN. Snow amounts 1-2 inches
seem possible Baudette, Warroad area with lesser amounts to a
tenth or two northern Red River valley, Thief River Falls to
Bemidji. Surface lot itself isnt strong and cold advection
behind it weak so not much in the way of gusty winds behind this
for Thursday night. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensembles indicate
chances for more than 2 inches of snow in a 24 hour period
Thursday into Thursday night around 15 percent Lake of the Woods
area.

Next clipper of importance to watch will be Saturday with this
one farther west and tracking closer to the baroclinic zone from
western Alberta into eastern Montana and southwest ND. Some
differences in how far east snow will reach but NBM and model
ensembles and ECMWF and GFS AI models all indicate highest
chances for 1 inch ore more west of Devils Lake to Valley City
with chances for 2 inches or more more toward Williston and
Dickinson.

So wintry impacts from both of these systems in our area will be
sub advisory.

Very far end of the extended toward Dec 9/10th there is a signal
that a bit more potent low may develop in Alberta and move
east-southeast and the baroclinic zone mid next week surging
east. Not a huge storm, but sometime potentially more impactful.
But it is too far away to note any confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon, with a low chance for
MVFR ceilings later this evening, especially at KTVF and KBJI.
Winds will be out of the northwest today, then shift to the
southwest to south heading into Thursday morning. These
southerly winds are expected to increase after sunrise, with
gusts in the range of 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch