Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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118 FXUS63 KFGF 031733 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1133 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The clipper train will remain in place into early next week. Periodic light snow chances, focused in NW Minnesota Thursday and in central into southeast North Dakota Saturday. Sub Advisory impacts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The forecast remains on track at midday with mostly clear skies across the area. Temperatures are in the lower single digits for most locations. UPDATE Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Skies have cleared nicely over the last 2-3 hours. Lingering clouds only from Bemidji to Wadena and scattered stratocu SE ND and rest of NW MN. Soundings support potential for CU development with heating today, but also pretty dry at 850 mb region. Cold morning with wind chills -10 to -25F. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...Synopsis... The coldest airmass of the week to move in today with minus 18C to minus 22C 850 mb advecting into eastern ND and northwest MN today into this evening. We are having clearing work south, but also with the colder airmass quite a bit of ice crystals, and also lingering flurries to start today. Highs today mostly single digits with wind chills -15 to -25F below. Winds diminish this evening and should be a quick fall off in temps, especially southeast ND and west central MN where deeper snow cover exists. Winds turn south overnight Wed night with likely rising temps esp northeast ND. Next in our parade of clipper systems will track from northern Saskatchewan to just east of Winnipeg by 00z Fri. This track keeps the steadier snow Manitoba into NW Ontario but brushing NW MN. Snow amounts 1-2 inches seem possible Baudette, Warroad area with lesser amounts to a tenth or two northern Red River valley, Thief River Falls to Bemidji. Surface lot itself isnt strong and cold advection behind it weak so not much in the way of gusty winds behind this for Thursday night. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensembles indicate chances for more than 2 inches of snow in a 24 hour period Thursday into Thursday night around 15 percent Lake of the Woods area. Next clipper of importance to watch will be Saturday with this one farther west and tracking closer to the baroclinic zone from western Alberta into eastern Montana and southwest ND. Some differences in how far east snow will reach but NBM and model ensembles and ECMWF and GFS AI models all indicate highest chances for 1 inch ore more west of Devils Lake to Valley City with chances for 2 inches or more more toward Williston and Dickinson. So wintry impacts from both of these systems in our area will be sub advisory. Very far end of the extended toward Dec 9/10th there is a signal that a bit more potent low may develop in Alberta and move east-southeast and the baroclinic zone mid next week surging east. Not a huge storm, but sometime potentially more impactful. But it is too far away to note any confidence. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions prevail this afternoon, with a low chance for MVFR ceilings later this evening, especially at KTVF and KBJI. Winds will be out of the northwest today, then shift to the southwest to south heading into Thursday morning. These southerly winds are expected to increase after sunrise, with gusts in the range of 20 to 25 knots. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch/Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch