170
FXUS63 KFGF 011853
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures continue this week as arctic air
  pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
  with periodic light snow and flurry chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Continued to add flurries into the forecast within the majority
of Minnesota through the rest of the day into tonight. Low
stratus cloud deck seems to be productive at flurry generation,
so leveraged the cloud forecast for timing and location of
flurries.

Started to blend in high resolution CAMs within PoPs for Tuesday
and Tuesday night`s cold frontal passage. Vast majority of
guidance indicates this cold frontal passage is accompanied by
relatively deep boundary layer RH (~2-3km worth of saturation)
amid preceding WAA followed by moderate CAA ahead and behind
the front, respectively. This brings expectation of effective
light snow production ahead and behind the front. Accumulations
are still anticipated to be light, ranging from a few tenths of
an inch up to 1 or 2 inches.

UPDATE
Issued at 711 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The stratus deck over MN has produced flurries on and of at
observation sites the past couple of hours. In addition, the
Devils Lake area has been getting flurries on the north and east
shores, as southwest winds are promoting a little lake effect.
Therefore, added a mention of flurries into the forecast for
both of these regions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track, with temperatures in the single digits on either side of
zero to start the day off.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...Synopsis...

Overall, the upper air pattern changes very little throughout this
week, with northwest flow remaining predominate throughout the
forecast period. Several system riding this flow will pass
through, the strongest appearing to be late week. Each system
will bring a reinforcing shot of arctic air on the backside,
keeping temperatures below average.

...Below Average Temperatures and Light Snow...

There are a couple of players driving the weather over the Northern
Plains early this morning. First is an area of high pressure
situated over over southwestern MN, pushing to the south and east.
This high resulted in very cold overnight minimum temperatures
around midnight. The coldest values occurred in southeastern ND,
where the closer proximity to the high, clear skies and a deep
snowpack resulted in values as low as -16F degrees. As the high
departs, water vapor indicates a very weak shortwave to our
northwest that will pass through today. While this wave will not
bring any meaningful precipitation, it will likely keep cloud cover
(a mix of cirrus and stratus) a bit more prevalent.

Our first real weather maker in the seven day period arrives on
Tuesday. A weak low pressure system/clipper looks to track through
the region, initially ushering in slightly warmer temperatures,
albeit its important to note values will still be a couple of
degrees below average for early December. As the clipper passes
through, light snow will break out, but limited moisture will keep
snowfall totals on the light side (under 2 inches). As the cold
front swings through Tuesday evening, temperatures will plummet,
resulting in high temperature values in the single digits for
Wednesday. Northerly winds will also be breezy to windy, lasting
into Wednesday afternoon.

Thereafter, we remain stuck in northwest flow, so its a rinse and
repeat pattern to end the week. High pressure meanders east
Wednesday night into the Thursday, resulting in our FA seeing
warming out ahead of another system developing in the lee of the
Montana Rockies. Model guidance disagrees on the exact track this
late week system will take, but this one looks to have more moisture
to work with. Plenty to monitor as this system nears. And of course,
as the low departs, yet another arctic high works down,
resulting again in a significant cooldown for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Area MVFR and IFR ceilings will linger within Minnesota through
06Z tonight. This is also producing light snow, with visibility
at times dipping to around 2SM.

There is a 20% chance in fog tonight within portions of
southeast ND as well as into northwest and west-central
Minnesota between 02Z-07Z before winds increase and mitigate
this chance.

Winds increase out of the south around 10-15kt ahead of an
approaching cold front between 09-18Z Tuesday. This will also
bring lowered ceilings in the MVFR to IFR categories, starting
within North Dakota working east and southeast through the
afternoon into evening. Light snow also accompanies these
lowered ceilings.

Winds then shift out of the north 10-20kt, gusting up to 30kt
within the Red River Valley, behind the cold front after 18Z
Tuesday, with continued lowered ceilings and light snow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...CJ