916
FXUS63 KFGF 200853
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
253 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A more active and cooler pattern arrives next week, but the
  predictability of specific impacts is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...Synopsis...

Surface trough, wind shift to the northwest is progressing
eastward overnight and is just west of Baudette to Fosston to
Fergus Falls line. As winds go northwest ceilings improve and
fog goes away. Area of stratocu clouds extend west with backedge
of the cloud clearing line entering far western ND at 08z. This
clearing will advance east today...timing a bit uncertain, but
do look for clearing thru E ND midday into early aftn and
reaching far eastern fcst area late aftn.

500 mb flow becomes zonal or slight west-northwest after this
system passes heading into the weekend. Dry weather is
anticipated Friday thru Sunday with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

...Next Week...

Over the past 24-48 hours have noticed a bit faster solution in
regards to the arrival of precip chances and arrival of colder
air. Looking thru the various GFS, ECMWF operational runs and
their 00z ensembles show wide differences. ECMWF overall
maintains a more easterly track thru southern Canada, 00z ECMWF
operational run is on the high end of moisture with snow in
Canada and brief snow on backside of system Tues night as it
moveds out. Ahead of it, if low tracks thru southern Canada
Tuesday daytime in the mild airmass still with chances for light
rain with colder air moving in from the northwest in the
afternoon. GFS and its ensembles and also the AI version of GFS
from 00z is indicating a potential merger of an upper wave
moving northeast from central Plains into Wisconsin Wed and
takes a 500 mb short wave a bit more south and meets up with
this wave over eastern MN and potential heavier snowfall on back
side Tues night-Wed. The 00z operational GFS is quite wintry but
looking at the GEFS plumes indicate the operational run is at
the top end of all of the ensemble runs in terms of amount of
snow. And thus 00z GFS and its snowfall showing several inches
over the entire area will be seen as an outlier. German ICON
model 00z run is weaker with all paramters. Model blend NBM
used keeps the main focus north of the border, though not as
intense as operational ECMWF. This is what is used in the
extended NWS grids out thru Thursday. With this solution,
impacts remain highly uncertain with very low predictability.
WSSI-P from WPC shows 20-30 pct advisory impacts Tues night
right along Canadian border. NBM probs for 3 inches or more is
15 pct along the Intl border. WPC QPF follows NBM QPF with any
QPF limited to low amounts and limited to northern areas.

So in other words, still several days out and will continue to
monitor over the coming days.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

IFR conditions at the MN TAF sites, with 3-5SM vis due to light
mist. The lowered visibility should end as the trough axis moves
into the area and winds shift to the west to northwest. A mix of
VFR and MVFR on the drier, western side of the trough. Models
bring some more consistent MVFR ceilings to the ND airports
later tonight, so continued with that mention even with some
improvement currently. Clearing on the backside of the system
remains a way off, and won`t see conditions return to VFR until
later Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain northwesterly to
westerly at around 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR