718
FXUS63 KFGF 251002
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Falling and blowing snow impacts today into this evening,
  particularly southeast North Dakota into west central
  Minnesota.

- Colder temperatures arrive behind this system with below
  normal temperatures into early next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor at 09z shows the well defined short wave entering
western SD and this will move east thru South Dakota into
southern Minnesota this evening. Mesoanalysis shows weak surface
low that moving southeast into southwest ND in between Bismarck
and Hettinger. A new low will develop and asborb this low today
and over east central SD into southern Minnesota and move east.
The tighest pressure gradient with northwest winds occurs from
southwest and south central ND into South Dakota and southwest
MN thru this evening. Enough of a pressure gradient for gusty
winds thru eastern ND/western MN as well, strongest southern
valley, but this will occur as low moves more into south central
MN mid to late aftn. Area of snow with this system over central
into eastern ND. The snow-no snow line has been near Bottineau
to Cando so far with trace amounts Cando via webcam and no snow
Langdon, Rolla to Bottineau. Based on latest HRRR main snow will
indeed move southeast and focus higher snowfall totals 4+ inches
in southeast ND into west central MN and south into parts of
SD/central MN. So overall sag south in heavier totals remains.

HREF indicate 1+ inch snow rates possible this aftn for a 3 hour
time along the SD/ND border Forman, Wahpeton areas. This is area
of max QPF as well and also closer to higher wind speeds in SD.
Therefore this area right along SD border will need to be
watched closely for warning impacts this aftn as the main snow
looks to be centered around 20-23z.

North edge of snowfall will see light accumulations with mostly
1-3 inches along Hwy 2 from Devils Lake thru Grand Forks with
3-4 Bemidji...with higher south. Based on obs in Langdon, Rolla
it is likely very little snow falls Grafton and north today and
in far northwest MN along Manitoba border. Even Grand Forks-TRF
area on the edge and may well see under an inch, but tight
gradient in the area so will maintain advisory for 1-3 inch
potential along Hwy 2.

System is quite progressive with snow ending most all areas
before midnight.

Colder air moves in behind this system, with temperatures
running below normal into early next week. Not unusually cold
for this time  of year, but coldest by far so far this month.

An area of snow will move southeast with an upper wave from
Montana into eastern SD Friday into Friday night, with northeast
edge of some light snow into southwest 1/2 of the fcst area. At
this time any amounts look to be very light and impacts from
this minimal.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Aviation conditions will begin to deteriorate at the TAF sites
over the next several hours. Looking upstream, widespread
observations ranging from 1SM to 2SM have been reported within
snow showers from MOT to XWA. Occasional sub one mile
visibilities have also been reported. This will continue to
slowly slide southeastward over the next several hours.

Widespread snow showers should begin to impact DVL in the next
1-2 hours with continued expansion thereafter. By 12z, expect
most, if not all, TAF sites to be reporting snow with persistent
MVFR visibilities at a minimum. Heavier bursts of snow will
cause visibilities to become 1/4SM to 1/2SM temporarily,
although the spatial extent makes predicting if this affects any
TAF site extremely difficult. Based on current tracks of the
system, FAR looks to be the only TAF site at risk for 1/4SM from
+SN. Blowing snow is likely to develop, however warm
temperatures should prevent significant visibility reductions to
occur. For this reason, any IFR to LIFR visibilities will
primarily be tied to rate of snowfall. Alongside low
visibilities, ceilings will fall as this system approaches to
widespread low-end MVFR by morning, generally between 010-020.
Eventually, ceilings should become IFR, especially at FAR. Snow
will taper from west to east, but this will occur late afternoon
at DVL and closer to the end of the TAF period for all other TAF
sites.

Winds will also slowly rotate to north-northwesterly through the
day, with gusts beginning to peak by early afternoon. Sustained
winds can be expected to be between 10-20 knots, with gusts to
25-30 knots at DVL/BJI/TVF. At GFK and FAR, winds will be
stronger sustained between 15-30 knots, with gusts potentially
getting as high as 45 knots at times due to valley winds.

Ceilings should remain at least MVFR by the end of the TAF
period with the exception of DVL, who should see enough clearing
to push back up to VFR. FAR and GFK will be on the dividing
line between MVFR and VFR by 06z, so for now the forecast has
left it as MVFR to the end given proximity to the TAF site in
model guidance.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006-014-
     015-024-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NDZ027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
     tonight for MNZ001>003-013>017-022-023-027-029-030-040.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST tonight
     for MNZ024-028-031-032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Perroux