450
FXUS63 KFGF 051731
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1131 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few pockets of freezing drizzle across southeast North
  Dakota and west central Minnesota this morning, with a slight
  chance for light snow south of I-94 Saturday.

- Tuesday will see potentially stronger system with a 60
  percent chance of advisory impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Light snow is winding down across the southern FA as the
responsible low tracks eastward into MN. A loss of ice aloft is
leading to a brief period of freezing drizzle once snow ends, as
shown by a couple of webcam images and a report received here
at the office. This threat should be confined to a few hour
period this morning. Therefore, issued an SPS for pockets of
freezing drizzle until 1 PM. Will reassess around the noon hour
and make a decision for the afternoon from there.

UPDATE
Issued at 619 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Light snow continues in the far south fcst area near the South
Dakota border and east toward Elbow Lake MN. Very fine flakes.
Weak sfc low looks to be over Wahpeton, Wheaton area as winds
are calm there and northwest at Gwinner and Britton SD and east
at Fergus Falls and Elbow Lake. This low will continue to track
slowly east-southeast this morning with main area of very light
snow ending. Some radar returns in western Manitoba as well at
12z with light snow pockets. Feeling is could have flurries or
patches of very light snow most anywhere today underneath the
stratocu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...Synopsis...

Our current 500 mb short wave and sfc low is moving east-
southeast. It is quite weak but is noted in water vapor satellite
in northeast SD at 08z. Light snow with this system mainly close
to the SD border and into southern parts of west central MN.
Winds have turned northerly from Fargo and points north with
colder air sinking south, but not a big push at this time, but
cold advection increases thru the day, especially this afternoon
and into the evening. Lots of cloud cover upstream as
considerable moisture remain in the 925-850 mb to start the day
with drier airmass noted moving into this layer this evening as
colder, drier airmass moves in. Lingering light snow along SD
border this morning. Under any of the stratocu some flurries are
possible as well but didnt broad brush flurries at this time.
There was freezing drizzle in several locations in E ND and
parts of the RRV at the time of the front and wind shift
dropping south this past evening. Freezing drizzle can`t be
ruled out but overall the atmospheric conditions for this is
lessening as colder air deepens so did not continue fzdz mention
past 12z.

Tonight thru Sunday will see colder airmass in place, with high
pressure anchored in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan with
sfc ridge southeast into eastern ND. The next clipper system
will ridge on the southwest edge of this cold airmass and bring
a period of light snow Saturday, mainly from eastern Montana,
thru western into south central ND and into South Dakota, with
chances for light snow brushing far southeast ND where a few
tenths of an inch of snow may occur south of Fargo. Fargo and
north will be dry. Dry weather all areas on Sunday with high
pressure center moving southeast and over the Red River valley
Sunday morning. If skies are clear, then temperatures will be
well down into the teens below zero but winds are near calm so
wind chills not much different than the actual temperature.

Early next week will see the baroclinic zone or boundary between
the colder arctic airmass and a milder airmass shift east into
western half of ND Monday. Ahead of it will be some light snow
with snow amounts half inch or so possible.

Monday night into Tuesday will see a much stronger 500 mb wave
come off the Pacific and into central B.C. with sfc low forming
in central Alberta and likely to head southeast along the
baroclinic zone. The track of the low will depend on where the
baroclinic zone will be. System though has Pacific moisture and
thus more QPF to work with in terms of potential snow. Just
north of low track is where the main snowfall potential will be
but where that is while there isnt a large spread at the moment
among the models I am sure there will be run to run differences
heading over the next 48 hours. Thus confidence in some part of
our forecast area getting advisory level snow is increasing
(60 percent via WPC) the location of that is low confidence.
There remains a 10 pct chance of warning impacts. This would be
Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

MVFR will persist for nearly the entire TAF period, at most TAF
sites. The current MVFR deck overhead will take all afternoon to
work its way through all terminals. There have also been a few
random flurries, mostly in the north, so added a PROB30 to KTVF,
where visibility has been brought down to 5SM from time to time
over the past couple of hours. As we go into the overnight
period, there may be a slight break where we go VFR, however
timing of this is highly uncertain/variable. In addition, with
another system approaching from the west, it may be hard for
ceilings to rise much before lowering again. Therefore, opted to
keep MVFR ceilings going throughout the entire TAF period at
KDVL, KGFK, KFAR and KTVF, knowing that there may be an hour or
two of VFR embedded within that is too difficult to time out at
this time. Outside of ceilings, winds will pick up a bit this
afternoon out of the northwest, shifting to the northeast by the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty