433
FXUS63 KFGF 221831
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1231 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impacts to holiday travel are possible Tuesday and Wednesday,
  with a 40 to 50 percent chance for minor winter impacts.

- A colder and more active pattern is possible for the second
  half of next week and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The forecast is panning out as expected, with the same
sentiments within the Update section still valid.

Tonight into Sunday, a weak wave moves through the southern tier
of Canada. This will promote warming temperatures aloft as we
remain in the warm sector of this wave during the daytime. This
combined with south-southwest winds over portions of eastern ND
and the Red River Valley will promote temperatures well into the
50s. There is a medium chance some locations within the Red
River Valley will see the 60 degree mark with this type of
setup as aided by downsloping off of the western edge of the
Valley. Winds may be breezy, but partly sunny skies and these
well above average temperatures will make for very mild
conditions given this being in late November.

UPDATE
Issued at 955 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Today will feature gusty northwest winds 20-35 mph, highest
west of the Red River Valley, along with mostly sunny skies and
above average temperatures into the 40s and 50s. Some slight
adjustments were made to the wind forecast to reflect latest
thoughts on timing and location of highest winds today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow prevails today across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest following a weak shortwave passage. This trough quickly
moves eastward, giving way to H5 ridging and westerly flow aloft. As
such, temperatures are expected to increase into the 40s to low 50s
this afternoon, with slightly warmer temps for Sunday. While this
ridge is traversing east, low pressure forms in the southwestern US,
then moves northeastward into the Central Plains by Monday.
Troughing forms off the Pacific Northwest Sunday into Monday, which
will move into the Northern Plains by Monday, interacting with the
southwestern low as we head into Monday night and Tuesday. This will
set the stage for potential winter impacts Tuesday into Wednesday as
the upper low is pulled into the larger trough. Much colder air
settles into the area as this system moves east of the area heading
into Wednesday. Additional shortwave activity is showing up in the
ensemble guidance, suggesting a potentially active pattern
continuing into the end of the week and the weekend.

...Travel Impacts Possible Tues and Wed...

Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for winter impacts
as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex system is gaining
ensemble support, with better agreement in the last several runs. An
upper trough, moving southeast out of the Pacific Northwest, is
expected to encounter H5 low pressure, moving northeast out of the
southwestern US. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
location of the constructive interaction; however, the range of
potential solutions has gotten smaller in the last several runs. At
this time, there is a 40 percent chance for minor winter impacts in
eastern North Dakota and about a 50 percent chance for portions of
northwest Minnesota. Accumulating snow will be possible with this
system; however, amounts will depend on when the two systems
interact. Given the current guidance, there is a 40 percent chance
for 2 or more inches of snow across much of the area. It is worth
noting that the 10th and 90th percentiles range from a trace to
nearly 8 inches, thus highlighting the variability of the different
scenarios. Both the median and mean show the potential for around 2
inches.

...Active Winter Pattern Persists into the Weekend...

Signals are increasingly consistent regarding the persistence of
active weather into the end of the week and the weekend. Ensembles
show several H5 troughs traversing the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest, bringing reinforcing cold air as well as opportunities for
additional precipitation. Confidence is low regarding accumulating
snow potential at this time due to a large degree of ensemble
spread.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Confidently forecasting VFR conditions through 18Z Sunday.
Mostly clear skies will give way to clouds after 00Z, lasting
into Sunday morning. However, all guidance reflects cloud bases
above 5kft that arrive after 06Z. Winds will remain high enough
in the 4-7kt range to negate the chance for fog overnight.

Winds will be northwest through 00Z featuring gusts between
20-25kt, before quickly lessening then shifting south and
southwest by 12Z. Between 14-21Z Sunday, winds will increase
into the 10-15kt range with localized areas seeing gusts around
25kt Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ