024
FXUS65 KFGZ 162320
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Several disturbances will move through the state
this week, bringing colder temperatures, gusty winds, and chances
for rain and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through tonight...The cold front continues to push its
way to the east this afternoon. Mainly rain showers accompany the
front as it continues east, with snow showers remaining above 8000
feet. A few flurries have been seen down to around 7000 feet this
morning, but ground temperatures are too warm and precipitation
intensity is too light for accumulation to occur. Strongest winds
remain along the front with some gusts to 30-40 mph. Otherwise,
expect winds to remain out of the south-southwest around 15-25 mph.
The front is providing some good lift, especially along the higher
terrain, and we are seeing some isolated thunderstorms develop, so
don`t be surprised if you hear rumble or two through this afternoon.
Showers should gradually come to en end this evening, with some
isolated showers lingering across northwestern Arizona overnight.

Monday...A brief break in the active pattern is expected for Monday
as a weak ridge passes through the state. However, the moisture
isn`t cleared out fo the area and energy moving through he mid
levels may be enough to keep a few isolated showers ongoing during
the day, but mainly confined to the higher elevations. Temperatures
will remain cold and generally around 5-10 degrees below normal.
With how warm it was over the past week, it will certainly feel much
colder than it has of late.

Monday night through Thursday...The next low digs down along the
California coast, moving into southern California on Tuesday. Strong
southerly flow ahead of the low will drag more moisture into the
region and we will start to see showers developing by Monday night.
Snow levels look to remain above 8000 feet through Monday night so
rainfall will be the primary ptype and we are not expecting much
snow outside light accumulations up on the highest peaks. The low
moves inland on Tuesday but as it becomes cut off from the main
flow, it slows down quite a bit. As it progresses ever so slowly to
the east, we will start to see colder air move in and snow levels
will fall down to around 6000-7000 feet in areas to the west of I-17
corridor. As we go through the Tuesday night and into Wednesday,
snow levels will fall further and down as low as around 5500 feet.
The current path of the storm looks to be in a good position for
accumulating snow across the higher terrain. However, a shift
northward could allow for some warmer air to advect into the area
and potentially raise snow levels, limiting snow accumulations. If
the low starts to dive further to the south, it could limit the
amount of moisture available, which again limits snow accumulations.
T he models have been more consistent with storm total QPF between
1.00-1.50",mainly along and south of the higher terrain. As far as
snow amounts go, there is still some uncertainty but areas above
7000 feet could see around 2-4" with locally 4-6" possible. These
amounts are not set in stone and are likely to change over the next
day or two. WSSI-P shows 20-40% of minor impacts, especially along
the I-40 corridor between Ash Fork and Flagstaff for Tuesday through
Thursday. So be prepared for winter weather, dress warmly, have your
winter kit in your car, and be prepared for slowdowns or delays on
area roadways.

Another item to note is the tightening pressure gradient across the
state. Strong southerly winds are expected, mainly on Tuesday, with
wind gusts to 30 mph likely.

Beyond Thursday...the pattern looks to remain active with a series
of troughs crossing through the region. Too far out to really get a
good grasp on any details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/00Z through Tuesday 18/00Z...SCT -SHRA/SHRA
and ISOLD -TSRA will diminish by 02Z-04Z. Areas CIGS from 4-6kft AGL
through the period, some MVFR possible over higher terrain overnight
and near lingering showers. Sfc winds SW15-25kts through 02Z, then
quickly decreasing for the remainder of the period, 5-15kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/00Z through Thursday 20/00Z...Areas -SHRA/SHRA
as well as -SHSN/SHSN (above 7000 feet) through most of the period.
Upslope locations and areas where showers are occurring will produce
MVFR/IFR. Sfc winds light Monday night, then SW10-20kts Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Tuesday...Scattered rain showers
continue through the evening, with potentially a thunderstorm and
rain/snow mix in the higher elevations. Coverage becomes isolated on
Monday, mainly across the higher terrain. Tuesday has scattered to
widespread rain showers with a chance of high elevation snow in the
evening. Wind southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph through
this evening, decreasing to 5-15 mph on Monday, then south 10-20 mph
on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Scattered to widespread rain and snow
showers continue Wednesday, becoming more isolated Thursday and
Friday. Winds south 5-10 mph on Wednesday, then shifting west on
Thursday then becoming variable Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff