855
FXUS65 KFGZ 102010
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
110 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through Thursday.
A storm system will then bring colder temperatures and a chance of
rain and high elevation snow from Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A high amplitude ridge will peak today, but only
slowly meander eastward over the next few days. Higher elevation
daytime temperatures will remain at least 5-10 degrees above normal
through Tuesday or Wednesday, dropping a bit heading into Thursday.
Despite lower hghts by Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures may
actually continue to rise in the lower elevations, due to mixing
and the removal of inversions.

By late Thursday, the pattern begins to break down as a strong
trough forms over the eastern Pacific. Models still differ with
regard to speed, timing and location. However, the consenus seems
to be that this trough will form a cut off low over SOCAL by Friday
afternoon, then moving through southern Arizona through Saturday.

We expect a good chance of rain showers ahead of the low and with
the low passage as a result. Snow levels will fall enough by Friday
evening that portions of the High Country will likely see at least
some light snowfall, but probably not very much accumulation.

Right now, 6 hour NBM probabilities for more than one inch of snow
are right around 15-25 percent, but there could be some locally
heavier pockets by Saturday morning. Unfortunately, some models are
now dropping the cut off farther southeast, which will continue to
complicate the scenario. Stay tuned.

Beyond this, we still may see a longer wave trough forming within
the 8-14 day period, but model spread is impressive and lends to low
confidence at this time. In general, more unsettled weather is
possible right near the end of this 7 day forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected, but areas of patchy FU/HZ possible from
prescribed burns. Winds NE 5-10 kts daytime, light and variable
or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/18Z through Thursday 13/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Light and variable winds Tuesday, S-SW
5-10 kts Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry conditions with
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. Winds light and variable
or terrain driven Tuesday, S-SW 5-10 mph Wednesday. Minimum
afternoon RH between 10-20% Tuesday, 15-25% Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
above average Thursday. On Friday a pattern change arrives with
temperatures dropping below average. Precipitation chances also
return, primarily rain but changing to snow Friday evening above
6,500-7,000 ft. Rain chances with snow possible above 7,000-7,500 ft
continue into Saturday. Winds SW 10-20 mph on Thursday, SW-W 10-25
mph on Friday, switching to the NW-N 10-20 mph on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff