311
FXUS65 KFGZ 301106
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
406 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions expected outside of a light
shower or two near the Kaibab Plateau today. Seasonable
temperatures will continue through the forecast period. A low
pressure system looks to slide across the West Coast later in the
week, resulting in gusty winds and maybe a few isolated showers
along the AZ/UT border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Pleasant fall weather is underway, with daytime
highs increasing through the week and landing slightly above
normal for this time of year. Despite mostly dry conditions
expected through the week, a short-wave trough will bring slight
chances for showers across the Kaibab Plateau today. Not only
this, but expect winds 10-20 mph gusting near 25-30 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday a brief ridging pattern will set-up across
the Southwest. This will continue the warming trend through the
week, and bring lighter winds back to our CWA. No showers are
expected during the middle of the week.

Friday and Saturday a stronger trough will slide down from the
Great Basin Region, bringing gusty southwest winds and isolated
showers across our northern border. Wind speeds currently look to
remain below any wind product criteria, but we`ll continue to
monitor the forecast in the meantime. Daytime highs will also drop
over the weekend from this passing disturbance.

Sunday onward...additional troughs look to impact the state,
causing more breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. We may
even see isolated showers across far eastern Arizona, but we`ll
have more details as we get closer to the weekend/next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 30/12Z through Wednesday 01/12Z...VFR
conditions expected through the TAF period, but brief -SHRA
possible along and NW of KGCN-KPGA line. Light and variable winds
will continue through 18Z, before SW winds 10-20 kts return
afterwards. Light and variable winds forecast to return after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/12Z through Friday 03/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Expect light and variable winds
during the overnight periods, and south through southwest winds
5-15 kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Expect seasonal temperatures
and drying conditions each day. Very slight chances for light
showers across the Kaibab Plateau today. Minimum RH values between
25-45% this afternoon, becoming 20-35% on Wednesday. Look for south
through southwest winds 10-20 mph today, and decreasing slightly for
tomorrow.

Thursday through Saturday...Daytime highs forecast to remain above
normal through the end of the week, with cooler conditions expected
on Saturday. Look for southerly winds 5-15 mph on Thursday, becoming
breezy for Friday and Saturday where gusts could reach 25-35 mph.
Minimum RH values forecast to be between 15-30% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff