196
FXUS65 KFGZ 291722
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions
forecast through the weekend. Beginning late Sunday through early
Monday, chances for rain and high elevation snow return.
Otherwise, mild and dry weather expected through the first half of
the week. Unsettled weather will be possible for the second half
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Pleasant weather will last through the weekend,
prior to a shortwave trough lightly impacting northern Arizona.
Initially, increased southwest winds will be noted on Sunday with
sustained speeds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Following the
elevated winds Sunday afternoon, chances for rain and high
elevation snow showers return Sunday night through Monday morning
as the core of this shortwave moves through the Four Corners.
Greatest chances for precipitation will be along and northeast of
a Shonto-Chambers line, but a few light showers could reach as
far south as the Mogollon Rim. Very light snow accumulation
(0.1-0.2") is possible for areas above 7000`, but 1 to 3 inches of
snow could accumulate across the Chuska Mountains. Elsewhere along
and north of the Mogollon Rim could see light rainfall less than
0.10".

Once this trough exits the region, quiet weather will return for
the first half of the week. Daytime highs will remain cool on
Monday and reach near-normal by Tuesday. Dry conditions and light
winds are also expected for the first half of the week behind the
disturbance.

By Wednesday, another unsettled pattern looks to hit the
Southwest. Model guidance has a decent spread on potential
solutions with this next storm-system. At the moment, nothing
looks overly impactful, but we`ll keep monitoring the forecast in
the meantime.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 29/18Z through Sunday 30/18Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable
10kts or less today, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 30/18Z through Tuesday 02/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, but Sunday night into Monday morning may see a few
isolated to scattered rain and high elevation snow showers in
northeastern Arizona which could cause drops to MVFR conditions.
Things dry back out rest of Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Winds
Sunday SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-35kts. Winds NW-N 5-10kts, gusts to
20kts Monday, SW 5-15kts Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry and mild weather will
continue today and most of Sunday before a weak weather system
brings a 10-30% chance of rain and high elevation snow showers over
northeastern Arizona Sunday evening into Monday morning.
Precipitation amounts generally less than 0.10". Winds will be
variable at 10 mph or less today but increase out of the SW 15-
20 mph, gusting 25 to 35 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Apart from a 20% chance of rain or snow
showers over the White Mountains Monday morning, it will be dry
Monday and Tuesday. Another weather system approaches on Wednesday
bringing a slight chance of rain and high elevation snow showers by
Wednesday evening. Winds N-NE 10-15 mph Monday, SW 10-15 mph on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff