137
FXUS65 KFGZ 100952
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
252 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through Thursday.
A storm system will bring colder temperatures and a chance of
rain and high elevation snow from Friday into Saturday, with drier
weather for Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure over the southwest US will
continue today, then slowly weaken and be suppressed southward
through Thursday as a trough moves onto the west coast. As a
result, afternoon high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. The warmest days from the Mogollon
Rim southward will be today and Tuesday, then expect a few
degrees of cooling as the trough approaches Wed/Thu. Breezy SW
winds of 15-25 mph are forecast on Thursday. North of the Mogollon
Rim, temperatures will be fairly steady and may even warm a
couple degrees Wed/Thu as increased winds scour out temperature
inversions.

Friday and Saturday - confidence continues to increase that the
west coast trough will move across our region, with the latest
timing favoring Friday into early Saturday. There remains
uncertainty in the exact track and depth of the trough as it moves
through, and this will affect precipitation amounts and snow
levels/amounts. PoPs have increased to 50-70% for Friday/early
Saturday, with precipitation forecasts generally in the
0.50"-1.00" range. Some of this could be in the form of snow,
mainly above 6000-7000 feet - but again snow levels will depend on
the low track/depth. As of now, the 24hr probability (5am Fri - 5
am Sat) of 1" or greater snowfall is 30-40% above around 6000
feet including the Kaibab Plateau/Mogollon Rim/White Mtns - with
higher values over mountain peaks. If you have travel plans in the
high country from Friday into Saturday it would be a good idea to
check back through the week as we get a better handle on the
details. The majority of the forecast guidance shows decreasing
precipitation chances through the day Saturday, with dry
conditions returning on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/06Z through Tuesday 11/06Z...VFR conditions
expected. Areas of FU/HZ possible from prescribed burns. Light and
variable winds forecast through much of the period. However, N-NE
winds 5-15 kts possible between 04Z-16Z along and south of the
Mogollon Rim.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/06Z through Thursday 13/06Z...VFR conditions
expected. Light and variable winds forecast for Tuesday, becoming
W-SW on Wednesday 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Dry conditions with temperatures
around 10 degrees above average. Winds light and variable or terrain
driven each day. Minimum afternoon RH between 10-20%.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry with above average temperatures
through Thursday.  On Friday a pattern change arrives with
temperatures dropping below average. Precipitation also moves in,
mainly rain but chance of snow in the evening above 6,500-7,000 ft.
Winds southwest at 10 mph or less on Wednesday, southwest 10-20 mph
on Thursday, then southwest through west 10-25 mph on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff