526
FXUS65 KFGZ 231800
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1100 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and high elevation snow will stick around through
today, with drier and warmer weather forecast to return this week.
Potential for unsettled weather to return next weekend following
the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It`s snowing here in Bellemont, with a nice dusting
already established on the ground. Snow showers will likely
persist for areas roughly above 7000 feet through the
morning/afternoon hours. Snow accumulation between 7000 and 8000
feet does not look to be overly impactful, with totals currently
forecast between 0.5-2". Even then, some of those higher end
amounts will be focused across the Mogollon Rim. For locations
above 8000 feet (San Francisco Peaks & White Mountains), it`s not
out of the question to receive 4-10" of new snowfall. Of course
any areas below 7000 feet will be enjoy their precipitation as
rain. These rain/snow showers are from a low pressure system
currently centered over southern Yuma County. Throughout the rest
of the morning/afternoon, this low is projected to push towards
the Four Corners, before finally exiting the area late tonight. As
a result, it will be a cool/wet Sunday, but should be a great day
to watch football inside!

Monday through Friday...High pressure will gradually build off
the California Coast and push inland through the week. This will
bring daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal by the
Thanksgiving Holiday and allow for much drier conditions. Overall,
should be a very pleasant week weather wise!

Normally we`d probably not even mention a storm system so far out
in the extended forecast, but with Thanksgiving being a major
travel holiday, it`s worth noting we could see additional
rain/snow showers next weekend. Model guidance is very dispersed
in the timing/trajectory of this potential disturbance, but it`s
worth keeping an eye on the forecast if you`re going to be out and
about.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 23/18Z through Monday 24/18Z...IFR/MVFR
conditions in SHRA/SHSN, with the lowest flight categories at
higher elevation TAF sites. Activity begins to diminish after 21Z,
with low CIGS remaining in place for at least few hours
thereafter. Otherwise, localized area of FG/BR overnight. Winds
are SW-W 5-15 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 24/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds W/NW 5-10 kts on Monday, becoming N/NE on Tuesday. Locally
breezy NE winds downwind of terrain features overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Rain and high elevation snow
showers will continue through this evening. Accumulating snowfall
generally above 7000 feet. Mild and dry conditions set in for
Monday. Winds will generally blow from the southwest to west today,
becoming more northwesterly on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mild and dry conditions continue through
the middle of the week. Winds are north 5-10 mph on Tuesday becoming
variable Wednesday and Thursday. Minimum RH generally above 25%
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff