564
FXUS65 KFGZ 151219
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
519 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers are expected to develop later this afternoon
across western Arizona, then gradually spread from west to east
late tonight and into Sunday. Gusty winds and much cooler
temperatures are also expected. Continued cool and unsettled
conditions are expected to continue into much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday...This forecast with the cut-
off low off the coast of California continues to evolve. That 00Z
suite of guidance looks to now favor a more northerly trajectory,
with the bulk of the energy moving through Nevada and Utah after
the low ejects. Consequently, the onset of the precipitation has
been further delayed with activity now ramping up over western
Arizona late this afternoon and evening. Forcing across Arizona
also looks to be less, but still enough to generate a brief 1-2
hour period of steadier rain showers moving west to east Sunday
morning and afternoon with the cold front. Given this track
keeping us further in the warm sector, snow levels will likely
remain above 8500-9000 feet for the bulk of this event, keeping
the vast majority of the area in rain.

Behind the front, low-level moisture looks to remain which will
allow for some lingering upslope showers along the higher terrain
through the rest of the overnight hours. As colder air begins to
move in, snow levels look to drop to around 7500-8000 feet, allowing
a few wet snow flakes to mix in down to around 7000 feet. However,
any impacts should be minimal with no accumulations expected, given
the shallow moisture and still fairly high snow levels.

Total QPF amounts have subsequently decreased with the latest runs,
especially across eastern Arizona. Latest guidance suggests mainly
around 0.10-0.30" across the lower elevations across central and
western Arizona, with potentially only up to a tenth in the more
rain shadowed areas and across the Little Colorado River Valley and
Navajo Nation. In the higher terrain, 0.50-1.00" are expected with
the potential for a few locally higher spots in the more favored
upslope areas.

Gusty south/southwest winds look to still be on track with this
event. However, since the bulk of the energy looks to pass through
during the overnight hours, areas that decouple overnight will
likely see some relief. Areas downwind of the terrain on the other
hand, will likely see gusty winds continue from Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, and remain elevated overnight. Peak gusts of around 25-
35 mph are expected with some of the windier locations likely seeing
gusts in excess of 40 mph.

Monday through Friday...Heights begin to rise again on Monday, offer
a brief reprieve from the precipitation activity. Cooler temperatures
do look to remain however across much of the region.

Another closed-low looks to drop southward along the coast, before
ejecting off the Pacific on Tuesday. This looks to bring another
round of gusty winds and precipitation chances to northern Arizona
as early as Tuesday and into Wednesday. Temperatures do look to be a
bit on the colder side, so there does look to be a slightly better
chance for high-elevation snow with this system. Confidence in any
exact details however remains low, as proven by this last system,
cut-off lows tend to be less predictable.

Heights begin to recover once again on Thursday, bringing a return
of mainly drier conditions. This unsettled and stormy pattern looks
to live on though, with another through looming off the coast by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 15/12Z through Sunday 16/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions through 00z Sunday. Then, areas -SHRA/SHRA forming
mainly along and west of a KPHX-KFLG-KGCN line. MVFR conditions over
higher terrain in the heavier showers during the afternoon, with
IFR conditions likely over higher terrain overnight. Sfc winds
light overnight, becoming south 5-15 kts gusting 15-25 kts after
18Z. Localized FU due to prescribed burns.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/12Z through Tuesday 18/12Z...Areas -SHRA/SHRA
through Sunday, becoming more SCT by Sunday evening and ISOLD for
Monday. Periods of IFR conditions over higher terrain due to CIGS
and SHRA on Sunday. Winds southwest 10-20 kts gusting 20-35 kts
Sunday, decreasing Monday. Winds likely to stay 10-20kts Sunday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Turning cooler with increasing
showers, and a slight chance of thunder, from west to east through
the day on Saturday. Widespread rain continues Saturday night with
some snow mixing in at times in the higher elevations on Sunday.
South to southwest winds 5-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph on
Saturday, increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...A 10-30% chance of showers on Monday,
mainly across the higher terrain of northwestern Arizona, then
increasing chances for rain/snow Tuesday and Wednesday area-wide.
South to southwest winds 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff