054
FNUS75 KFGZ 171959
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Sayer Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1259 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MST on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...RFW conditions are ongoing this afternoon and will
persist into the evening before winds start to decrease, starting
around 1800 to 1900. RH recovery overnight will be moderate to
poor, ranging between 30 and 50%. Much lighter winds, slightly
below normal temperatures, and min RHs in the teens are expected
for Wednesday, though afternoon wind gusts could still reach
20 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 45 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......3484.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 30 to 35 knots.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 35
                    mph early in the evening.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......8.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 knots decreasing to around
                    10 knots in the late evening and overnight.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........16 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph shifting to
                    the southwest in the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......2176.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL in the morning and early afternoon
                    increasing to 11000 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 knots increasing to around
                    20 knots in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...ROAKES
Requested by...Nathaniel Dierking
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416276.2/FGZ
.DELDT 06/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathaniel.dierking@usda.gov,james.burton@usda.gov