699
FXUS63 KFSD 291815 AAA
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1215 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will end from west to east tonight. Additional snowfall
  amounts west of I-29 will be up to 2 inches, with amounts to
  the east 2 to 5 inches. The heaviest snowfall amounts are
  still expected for portions of northwest Iowa south/east of
  Highway 60.

- Expect difficult travel conditions to continue this afternoon
  through tonight, when north winds will continue to gust into
  the 30s after snow ends. Travel impacts may last into Sunday
  morning east of I-29. Check road conditions before traveling.
  If you must travel, keep a winter emergency preparedness kit
  in your car.

- Much colder air spreads in by Sunday and continues most of
  next week. Morning low temperatures will fall into the single
  digits with nighttime wind chills below 0F.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The heaviest snowfall rates are currently impacting areas near
the Sioux Falls metro area now, at around a half inch per hour.
Heavier snow will shift east into southwest MN and northwest IA
this afternoon. With snowfall rates not being quite as heavy as
previously expected for areas near and north of I-90,
downgraded Lincoln (MN), Moody, and Lake counties to a Winter
Weather Advisory. Also extended all Advisory areas in SD
through at least 6pm to account for late afternoon stronger
winds. If gusts can get into the 30s as proposed by model
forecast soundings, travel impacts will be increased from areas
of blowing and drifting snow. This is most likely south of I-90
late this afternoon and this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

THROUGH TONIGHT: Concern this morning with freezing drizzle, which
has been expansive than anticipated west of I-29 into central SD.
Soundings maintained a few hours of this with a lack of saturation
through the DGZ but a pretty robust saturated layer. Radar has been
overshooting this given cloud bases below 1kft. Would not be
surprised to see areas west of I-29 with a glaze to a couple
hundredths of an inch of ice, depending on how quickly we saturate
the DGZ. HRRR soundings keep FZDZ as the main p-type through roughly
4 AM CST, while the RAP holds on through daybreak.

Low pressure continues to slide northeast across KS/MO and into the
Midwest today. Mid level wave and upper trough axis slide east as
well. We`ll continue to see snow expand once again this morning as
we saturate aloft, with snow moving from west to east through this
afternoon and tonight. Outside of this morning`s freezing drizzle,
forecast largely remains on track. We`ll see some enhanced lift,
WAA, and frontogenesis develop, leading to banding potential mainly
east of I-29. Heaviest snowfall rates look to be just to the east
and south of our area, but moderate to briefly heavy snowfall with
rates 0.5" to 1" per hour are expected. This will lead to rapid snow
accumulations and reduced visibility. Additional amounts west of
Interstate 29 generally 2-4 inches, with amounts to the east 3 to 7
inches (again, highest along/east of IA/MN State Hwy 60).

Winds increase today as the surface pressure gradient compresses.
South central SD will see gusts around 35-40 mph this afternoon,
creating blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibility. Have extended
the Winter Weather Advisory for areas west of the James River to
cover not only a slightly slower snowfall exit, but also the blowing
snow potential. For the rest of the area, wind gusts today 25 to 35+
mph expected. For areas along and east of IA/MN State Hwy 60,
strongest winds will be this evening and into the early hours Sunday
morning. Again, blowing and drifting snow will be a concern, leading
to reduced visibility and hazardous if not impossible travel, with
travel impacts lasting into the day Sunday. If trends in winds
continue to increase, may need to evaluate headlines along and east
of I-29 into the IA/MN Hwy 60 corridor later today.

Lows tonight fall into the single digits, with wind chills below
zero as surface high pressure moves into the area.

SUNDAY ONWARD: Surface high pressure moves through the area Sunday
and Sunday night, with much colder temperatures thanks to the jet
off to our south. Winds early in the day will be on the breezy side,
especially east of I-29, so could see some lingering blowing and
drifting issues. If you`re traveling, continue to check road
conditions before heading out. Lows Sunday night fall to the single
digits either side of zero, which will drop wind chills below zero
for most of the area. By late Sunday night, trough at mid/upper
levels digs into the southern Plains. As this moves through Monday,
may see some light snow south of I-90, with the better chances south
of our area. Did not look too close given the focus on the short
term forecast. Another wave into mid week may again bring light
precip to the area. Main story through next week though remains the
much colder temperatures, with highs in the 20s for most (moderating
into the 30s for south central SD). Lows in the single digits either
side of zero and the teens above will lead to very cold wind chills.
Coldest morning looks to be Thursday morning with a reinforcing shot
of CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A winter storm continues to bring light, moderate, and
occasionally heavy snow across the region this afternoon. IFR
visibility and ceilings below 1500 ft will persist through much
of the afternoon as falling and blowing snow continues. Snow
will taper off from west to east this afternoon and evening,
persisting longest and heaviest near and southeast of a Sioux
City to Spencer IA line where an additional 2 to 5 inches is
expected. Despite snow ending tonight, MVFR ceilings will
persist overnight and into Sunday morning.

Strong north winds will increase and become more northwesterly this
afternoon, gusting 20 to 30 kts or occasionally higher. This
may additionally reduce visibility due to areas of blowing and
drifting snow, even after snowfall ends. Expect winds to weaken
slowly overnight.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for SDZ062-066-
     067-069>071.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ040-
     055-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ038-
     039-050-052>054-057>061-063>065-068.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ071.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...BP