023
FXUS63 KFSD 290920
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
320 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing drizzle this morning could lead to a light
  glaze of ice across southeastern South Dakota, possibly
  lasting into daybreak.

- Snow continues to expand over the area this morning, moving
  east through the day, ending from west to east tonight.
  Additional snowfall amounts west of I-29 generally 2-4 inches,
  with amounts to the east 3 to 7 inches - highest along/east of
  IA/MN State Hwy 60. Have extended headlines in time west of
  I-29.

- Breezy winds and additional snowfall lead to travel
  disruptions. Expect difficult to near impossible travel
  conditions, especially this afternoon through tonight when
  winds will be strongest. Travel impacts may last into midday
  Sunday east of I-29. Check road conditions, and be prepared
  to adjust your plans. If you must travel, keep a preparedness
  kit in your car.

- Much colder air spreads in by Sunday and continues most of
  next week with the lows down to the single digits and wind
  chills below 0F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

THROUGH TONIGHT: Concern this morning with freezing drizzle, which
has been expansive than anticipated west of I-29 into central SD.
Soundings maintained a few hours of this with a lack of saturation
through the DGZ but a pretty robust saturated layer. Radar has been
overshooting this given cloud bases below 1kft. Would not be
surprised to see areas west of I-29 with a glaze to a couple
hundredths of an inch of ice, depending on how quickly we saturate
the DGZ. HRRR soundings keep FZDZ as the main p-type through roughly
4 AM CST, while the RAP holds on through daybreak.

Low pressure continues to slide northeast across KS/MO and into the
Midwest today. Mid level wave and upper trough axis slide east as
well. We`ll continue to see snow expand once again this morning as
we saturate aloft, with snow moving from west to east through this
afternoon and tonight. Outside of this morning`s freezing drizzle,
forecast largely remains on track. We`ll see some enhanced lift,
WAA, and frontogenesis develop, leading to banding potential mainly
east of I-29. Heaviest snowfall rates look to be just to the east
and south of our area, but moderate to briefly heavy snowfall with
rates 0.5" to 1" per hour are expected. This will lead to rapid snow
accumulations and reduced visibility. Additional amounts west of
Interstate 29 generally 2-4 inches, with amounts to the east 3 to 7
inches (again, highest along/east of IA/MN State Hwy 60).

Winds increase today as the surface pressure gradient compresses.
South central SD will see gusts around 35-40 mph this afternoon,
creating blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibility. Have extended
the Winter Weather Advisory for areas west of the James River to
cover not only a slightly slower snowfall exit, but also the blowing
snow potential. For the rest of the area, wind gusts today 25 to 35+
mph expected. For areas along and east of IA/MN State Hwy 60,
strongest winds will be this evening and into the early hours Sunday
morning. Again, blowing and drifting snow will be a concern, leading
to reduced visibility and hazardous if not impossible travel, with
travel impacts lasting into the day Sunday. If trends in winds
continue to increase, may need to evaluate headlines along and east
of I-29 into the IA/MN Hwy 60 corridor later today.

Lows tonight fall into the single digits, with wind chills below
zero as surface high pressure moves into the area.

SUNDAY ONWARD: Surface high pressure moves through the area Sunday
and Sunday night, with much colder temperatures thanks to the jet
off to our south. Winds early in the day will be on the breezy side,
especially east of I-29, so could see some lingering blowing and
drifting issues. If you`re traveling, continue to check road
conditions before heading out. Lows Sunday night fall to the single
digits either side of zero, which will drop wind chills below zero
for most of the area. By late Sunday night, trough at mid/upper
levels digs into the southern Plains. As this moves through Monday,
may see some light snow south of I-90, with the better chances south
of our area. Did not look too close given the focus on the short
term forecast. Another wave into mid week may again bring light
precip to the area. Main story through next week though remains the
much colder temperatures, with highs in the 20s for most (moderating
into the 30s for south central SD). Lows in the single digits either
side of zero and the teens above will lead to very cold wind chills.
Coldest morning looks to be Thursday morning with a reinforcing shot
of CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A winter storm continues to impact the region this period. Currently
there is a mix of MVFR, IFR, and some LIFR visibilities and
ceilings. Light snow continues to fall along and east of I-29 with a
break in the snow for areas along and west of the James River. This
snow free area is expected to fill in over the next hour or two as
the surface low approaches out of the southwest. Snowfall rates are
expected to increase Saturday morning. Especially for areas along
and south of Highway 18. Here a prolonged period of increased
snowfall rates is expected through the early afternoon. Snow will
begin to taper off from west to east Saturday afternoon before
ending late Saturday night to early Sunday morning.

An additional concern is a brief period of some freezing drizzle
impacting both KHON and KSUX, as well as portions of northeastern
Nebraska and along Highway 20 southward. Very little accumulation is
expected, a light glaze of 0.01-0.02" of ice.

Winds are currently easterly, gradually becoming northerly
overnight. After day break winds increase again with gusts of 25-35
kts through the afternoon. This could lead to blowing and drifting
snow.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for SDZ055-056-
     062-066-067-069>071.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ038-
     039-053-054-059>061-065.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ040.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064-068.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ071-072-
     080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...AJP