845
FXUS63 KFSD 062324
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
624 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another extended period of quiet and mostly dry weather is
  anticipated through the work week.

- Below normal temperatures Monday, warm back above normal by
  mid- week, and could push the 80s by the upcoming weekend.

- Next more widespread regional rain chance doesn`t arrive until
  Saturday and continues through Monday. Confidence in rain
  probabilities and overall forecast precipitation remains on
  the low side.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: After an extended period of well above normal
temperatures, the widespread 50s and lower 60s experienced this
afternoon are serving a strong reminder of the Fall season.  Mid-lvl
clouds associated with very weak mid-lvl lift and modest moisture
are hanging around this afternoon, with a few sprinkles continuing
in eastern Nebraska and western/northwestern Iowa.

TONIGHT: We`ll continue to see variable mid-upper cloud cover
through the overnight hours as weak mid-lvl troughing slides through
the region.  Winds will turn light and variable after sunset,
potentially allowing for a fairly sharp localized downturn in
temperatures. Another band of mid-lvl clouds will drift
southeast after midnight and into daybreak, likely stabilizing
temperatures but also leading to a low chance of
sprinkles/showers along and north of Highway 14.

TUESDAY: Another near to slightly below normal temperature day is
expected Tuesday as winds remain quite light though the region. A
backdoor cold front approaching from the north northeast will stall
as it enters southwest Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota.
Temperatures rise into the middle 60s in most areas, with some
potential for upper 60s highs. Variable mid-lvl clouds may continue
with the passages of a mid-lvl vorticity.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Mid-lvl heights rise through the middle of the
week, leading to broad warm air advection through the Plains and a
return of southerly surface flow.  Temperatures by Wednesday reach
back above normal towards the lower 70s.  By Thursday, the axis of
stronger low-lvl warm advection stretches eastward increasing the
southerly surface winds gusts but also pushing high temperatures
towards the middle and upper 70s. A very weak mid-lvl impulse
combined with an narrow corridor of stronger mid-lvl moisture
convergence may lead to isolated showers along or east of I-29 late
Thursday into Friday.  With both weak lift and marginal moisture,
any QPF that falls should remain very light and focused mostly over
the far eastern CWA into Friday morning. The passage of a very weak
cold front by Friday morning caps the upward climb in
temperatures to finish the work week. However, lingering warm
air in the 925:850 mb layer along with decent sun and light
winds should result in highs in the middle 70s.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: The axis of the mid-lvl ridge begins to move
eastward on Saturday, allowing sharp mid-lvl southwesterly flow to
develop through the day. While differences remain, there are some
indications of a weak wave and corridor of warm advection rain
moving northeast on Saturday. The ECMWF and it`s ensemble remain
more aggressive with precipitation chances through central
South Dakota (30 to 50%). The GEFS/GEPS are much weaker with
forcing with only 10 to 20% probabilities of 0.10" rain. A cold
front may sweep through the area on Sunday, continuing the
inconsistent and low rain risks in the region, but also dropping
temperatures back below normal by Monday. Only changes to the
weekend forecast were to slightly increase wind gusts Saturday
afternoon and evening, which will also lead to a bump in
regional fire danger.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions with winds mainly light and variable expected through
the period. Guidance in good agreement on some mid-level cloud cover
increasing for the Highway-14 corridor around sunrise and then
possibly towards the I-90 corridor by midday. Can`t rule out some
sprinkles with these clouds, but visibility reductions are not
expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Samet