653
FXUS63 KFSD 100844
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
244 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures continue today, running 5-10+ degrees below
  normal.

- Temperatures warm through the work week and climb well above
  normal by the end of the week. Confidence is high that
  temperatures reach 10+ degrees above normal.

- Dry weather expected through the week, with next risk for rain
  arriving towards the end of next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

THROUGH TONIGHT: A cold start to the work week with some isolated
flurries through the early morning hours. Challenge this morning has
been cloud cover and therefore temperatures. Guidance continues to
handle the stratus poorly overall. Areas along the I-29 corridor and
adjacent areas of southwestern MN/northwestern IA where stratus
remains prevalent have stayed in the 20s. Elsewhere, temperatures
are already falling into the teens. Expect lows this morning to fall
into the single digits for the James River Valley, which should stay
mostly cloud free save for some increasing cirrus through this
morning.. Elsewhere, we should fall into the teens, albeit more
slowly for cloudy areas which may remain in the lower 20s depending
on how slowly stratus clears. Wind chills this morning drop to near
zero and into the lower teens so bundle up as you head out the door.

Expect cirrus to expand over the area today. Southerly winds return
with surface high pressure moving off to the southeast. WAA and the
return of southerly flow helps us warm into the 40s west of the
James River, with areas with snowpack in the 30s. Mid clouds move in
tonight with next short wave, which with continued WAA and southerly
flow ahead of a surface front keeps temperatures a bit more on the
mild side, in the 20s to mid 30s.

VETERAN`S DAY-FRIDAY: Dry and warmer conditions expected through
most of the work week. Ridging aloft builds to the west into mid
week, moving east Thursday and Friday. Although a couple of short
waves move through the northwesterly flow pattern Tuesday through
Thursday, a lack of moisture should keep things dry, with low (less
than 15%) chances of measurable precipitation across southwestern
MN Tuesday. Highs during this period in the 50s and 60s, which is 10-
15 degrees above average. Friday looks to be the warmest day. Lows
also remain well above average, in the 30s to mid 40s. If current
forecast holds, Huron may be within a few degrees of record warm
lows toward the end of the week. Tuesday looks breezy behind a
surface boundary, and Friday may be breezy as well ahead of our next
trough.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Pattern shifts for the weekend as ridging moves
into the Midwest and troughing digs into the Plains. Guidance is
still varied on the details - especially with a split in flow with a
closed low across TX within the main trough stretching north into
Canada. Models this morning are more in alignment with our area
being split between the two surface lows. A cold front and CAA will
bring cooler temperatures to the region and breezy conditions. As of
now, ensemble probability of 0.10" is low to moderate across the
area (20-45%) and highest east of I-29. Do expect this to change as
details become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Latest satellite imagery shows a somewhat narrow strip of VFR/MVFR
stratus sitting along and east of I-29. The stratus is sliding to
the south/southwest and will continue to do so through the night.
Confidence remains a little lower on the timing of the stratus
exiting terminals. Will keep a close eye on it and make amendments
if necessary. Some flurries have been reported beneath the stratus.
However, these reports are quite variable in location and visibility
remains well into VFR thresholds. Thus, have left out of KFSD and
KSUX`s TAFs at this time. Current thinking is for the stratus to
lift during the morning hours tomorrow. Winds will turn to out of
the south/southwest during the day tomorrow. Gusts up to 10-25 knots
is expected for the afternoon hours, strongest along and west of the
James River. There could be some low level wind shear (LLWS) to
finish out the TAF period but confidence is too low to include in a
TAF at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...Meyers