821
FXUS63 KFSD 040848
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
248 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to just above normal temperatures will continue for the
  rest of the week with mostly quiet conditions.

- An active pattern over the weekend could lead to increased
  chances for rain and/or snow by Saturday. While some details
  remain uncertain, ensemble guidance continues to show low to
  moderate confidence (30%-50%) in 0.10" of an inch or greater
  of QPF.

- An influx of cooler air over the weekend will lead to below
  normal temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: Another warm day ahead! Taking a look across the
area, we`re starting to see a few sprinkles develop along and south
of the highway-20 corridor this morning mainly in response to
increasing dPVA ahead of an approaching shortwave. While we could
this limited activity fester over the next couple of hours, the
expectation is for things to progress eastwards with the wave closer
to daybreak. From here, expect another warm and marginally breezy
day as southerly surface winds and increasing mid-level warm air
advection (WAA) help lead to temperatures into the 60s to low 70s
for the day. Otherwise, a mostly dry cold front will progress
through the region overnight. While precipitation is not expected,
the combination of strong CAA along with a strengthening nocturnal
LLJ will likely help keep the breezier conditions going into the
first half of Wednesday. With this in mind, decided to boost wind
speeds and gusts from 00z to 18z Wednesday using a blend of the
CONSshort and NBM90th. Lastly, another seasonable night will be on
tap with lows in the low to upper 30s expected.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Looking into the midweek, quieter conditions will
return by Wednesday as surface ridging moves in to replace the
departing cold front. While temperatures will slightly decrease from
the previous day, expect highs to hover around the 50s to low 60s on
both Wednesday and Thursday. From here, breezier conditions return
by Thursday as another mostly dry cold front progresses through the
region. While wind gusts could range between 25-35 mph at times,
higher dew points will likely limit any fire related concerns.
Looking aloft, an active returns between Thursday and Friday as a
broad troughing pattern sets up overhead. While precipitation
chances will be limited during the period, the influx of CAA aloft
will start a cooling trend by Friday with highs only making it to
the 40s to 50s for the day.

SATURDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, a interesting
pattern sets up by Saturday as twin shortwaves dive across the
northern and central plains bringing our next precipitation chances
(30%-50%). While there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this
system, long range deterministic guidance has started to come into
better agreement with the timing and placement of the features.
Given the current set up, both periods rain and snow will be
possible throughout the day on Saturday. However, the transition
from rain to snow will be entirely depend on how soon the colder air
can get here. If the colder air lags behind the precipitation (Euro
solution) we`ll likely see more rain than snow. If vice versa is
true (GFS solution), we could see a quicker transition to snow and
thus higher accumulations. With it being several days out, its still
too soon to tell which solution will win out. Nonetheless, most
areas should get measurable precipitation with most ensemble
guidance showing low to moderate confidence (30%-50%) in a 0.10" of
inch of QPF or greater. Shifting gears here, quieter conditions will
return from Sunday onwards as a broad surface ridge progresses
across the plains. Lastly, below normal temperatures will continue
through Monday with highs mainly in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions through the period, with areas of mid and high
clouds. Seeing some returns on radar across northern NE moving
east, so can`t entirely rule out a very isolated sprinkle south
of I-90 tonight; confidence is low and no impacts to aviation
expected.

Otherwise, LLJ moves across the area by daybreak Tuesday
morning, mainly from south central SD into southwestern MN,
leading to LLWS. Guidance has been backing off on the strength
and duration, but conditions remain marginal enough to continue
mention at KHON and KFSD. Winds shift southerly for the day
Tuesday, with gusts around 20 knots at times. Winds taper down
during the afternoon and evening, becoming northwesterly by the
end of the period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SG