022
FXUS63 KFSD 110424
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1024 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Winter weather advisory for a mixture of freezing rain,
   sleet, and snow continues through Thursday. Highest snow
   accumulations over Minnesota and some northwest Iowa
   counties. Freezing rain accumulations up to 0.10" along and
   west of the James River valley.

-  A band of snow will be possible on Saturday. For now the
   better chances appear to be near and south of I-90. Overall
   looking like 1- 3 inch amounts.

-  Confidence continues to increase in arctic air bringing near
   advisory level wind chills to the region by this weekend.

-  Depending upon how much snow falls through Saturday, a
   milder pattern sets up for early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Quick look of the 00Z model guidance supports a slightly slower
arrival of warm air on Thursday. The HRRR seems to be lifting
the wave and warm advection too far northeast. This may place
the transition zone a bit more along a line from Huron to Sioux
City. Additionally, the intensity of the WAA is not quite as
strong, suggesting a narrow corridor of a bit more sleet and
potentially forcing more of the freezing rain risks along and
west of the James River Valley.

The resultant modifications in the p-type probability forecast
suggests a bit more snow/sleet in areas from Madison to Sioux
Falls to Cherokee with accumulation of 0.5 to 1.5". Snow amounts
may trend upwards in areas of SW MN and NW IA as well, with
potential for 3" in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A fairly strong wave will drop southeast through strong northwest
flow aloft late tonight into Thursday. Given thermal profiles across
the area concerns continue for a combination of freezing rain and
snow, especially near and west of I-29 and near and north of I-90.
Across southwest MN the majority of the precipitation would be snow
and for now those amounts would likely be 1-3". Also of concern with
this will be the precipitation increasing through the morning and
possibly beginning near the morning rush, although locations closer
to I-29 should see a start time closer to 8-10 am. Currently it
looks like precipitation will start as mainly snow, then transition
to freezing rain after a period. The impacts from any freezing rain
will be dependent upon how much snow falls first. For now snow
amounts before the freezing rain look to be fairly minimal so
believe that there will be some minor to moderate impacts from the
freezing rain, especially with the now bare roads and no snow or
slush to absorb some of this liquid precipitation as it is freezing.
So went ahead and expanded the advisory south to I-90 and east just
into MN and far northwest IA. Areas east of this advisory will see
more snow than freezing rain and amounts for now do not warrant an
advisory. Will also need to monitor potential for a light icing
south of I-90 Thursday morning into the afternoon but for now
confidence not high enough in this area for an advisory.

By late afternoon this lift will shift southeast and colder air will
filter southward. This should shut down precipitation from northwest
to southeast. Model soundings do indicate some saturation in the
lowest few thousand feet so will need to monitor for the potential of
a little light freezing drizzle as this system exits.

Otherwise a jet digs into northern MN and drags further cold air
into the region on Friday. This will bring a cold Friday to the
region with highs in the teens and wind chills dropping below zero
in many locations Friday afternoon.

The next chance for snow will come Friday night into Saturday. While
the wave is much weaker, thermally we are primed for snow
production. The DGZ basically runs from near the surface to about
600 mb. With somewhat weaker winds in the lower 2000 feet or so this
could prove to be a fairly efficient snow maker.

Cold air funnel in behind this system and Saturday night into Sunday
looks very cold. Could potentially see cold weather advisories
across the area during this time.

Sunday night into the middle of next week will see a pattern chance
with ridging building, then flat westerly flow expected, supporting
milder flow aloft and at the surface. Will have to keep an eye out
for a system Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions have moved into most areas of the Tri-State area
late this evening. However, these conditions won`t last long as
initial wave of warm advection light snow is trying to develop
over central South Dakota.

Through daybreak flurries may redevelop and move eastward, as
ceilings gradually lower. More intense forcing and rapidly
worsening conditions develop after daybreak in central South
Dakota, spreading east towards I-90 by mid-morning and eastward
through the mid-day hours. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely,
and in moderate snow, visibility may drop below 1/2 mile at
times. A narrow corridor of sleet may also develop along a Huron
to Sioux Falls line at times, and have indicated the greatest
potential for this weather type around mid-day.

Low ceilings and weak lift persist into the evening, with some
potential for freezing drizzle to develop into the evening.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for
     SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>067.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for
     SDZ038-052-053-057>059.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dux
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Dux