270
FXUS63 KFSD 101132
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
532 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering flurries and light snow will continue to taper off
  this morning mainly across areas along and east of I-29. Any
  accumulations are expected to be light.

- Another quick wave will bring renewed chances for rain, light
  snow, and a wintry mix from late tonight into Thursday.
  Accumulations will range from 1-2 inches of snow mainly across
  southwestern MN and a glaze of ice along a Huron to Sioux
  Falls to Storm Lake, IA line. While accumulations are expected
  to be mainly light, minor travel impacts will be possible
  especially north of I- 90.

- Confidence continues to increase in arctic air bringing near
  advisory level wind chills to the region by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

TODAY-THURSDAY: A cooler and breezier day ahead! Taking a look
across the area, pockets of lingering flurries to light snow showers
continue to progress across the area this morning mainly across
areas along and east of I-29. While light accumulations of tenth or
two are expected, most this light activity should gradually progress
out of the area by late morning. From here, a breezier and cooler
day continues as strong northwesterly surface winds gradually
decrease during the first half off the day with an approaching a
surface high. Temperature-wise, lingering cold air advection (CAA)
and persist cloud cover should help our temperatures continue to
decrease throughout the day with highs mainly in the 20s to low 30s.
Otherwise, our focus will shift northwestwards as another clipper
wave ejects into the upper plains from late tonight into Thursday.

Initially, precipitation will likely start as light snow across
areas west of the James River overnight. However, as warm air
advection (WAA) strengthens ahead of a surface warm front by
Thursday morning; most of the precipitation will likely transition
to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow as it gradually
progresses southeastwards along a Huron to Sioux Falls to Storm
Lake, IA line. While ice accumulations continue to look light with a
glaze of ice expected, the combination of wintry mix and snow could
create some slicker road conditions along and just south of the
Highway-14 corridor during the morning commute. With this in mind,
decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am to 3 pm on
Thursday for the previously outlined areas. From here, things will
continue to gradually progress southeastwards into the early
afternoon with the main focus being snow in southwestern MN. Looking
at HREF guidance, snowfall rates of 0.25" to 0.50" in/hr will be
possible through late afternoon which could lead to quick
accumulations of 1-2 inches along and east of the Buffalo Ridge.
Lastly, should see snow begin to taper off eastwards into the early
evening.

THE WEEKEND: Heading into the weekend, mostly quiet conditions are
expected for most of the day on Friday. However, this will be short-
lived as another mid-level clipper swings through the area from
Friday night into Saturday bringing renewed chances for snow. While
amounts are still uncertain at this time, ensemble guidance
continues to show moderate to high confidence (50%-70%) in at least
1 inch of snow across most areas. Otherwise, the focus continues to
be on the colder temperatures and even colder wind chills. As
mentioned previously, parts of the area could see wind chills as
cold as -30 below zero by Sunday morning which would put us right in
advisory level criteria. While a cold weather headline will likely
be needed, we`ll need to continue to monitor this period moving
forward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Mostly MVFR conditions with occasional IFR vsbys will transition
to a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs this TAF period. Taking a look at
satellite imagery, MVFR stratus with pockets of flurries to
light snow showers continue to progress through areas along and
east of the James River Valley this morning. While these
conditions could stick around for the next could of hours,
should see things taper off by late morning leaving behind
mainly MVFR stratus. Otherwise, strong northerly winds will
continue to gradually decrease this morning before becoming more
light and variable overnight.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
     Winter Storm Watch until noon CST today for SDZ038>040-052>056-
     058>062-064>071.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
     Thursday for SDZ038>040-052>056.
MN...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
     Winter Storm Watch until noon CST today for MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.
IA...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
     Winter Storm Watch until noon CST today for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.
NE...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for NEZ013-
     014.
     Winter Storm Watch until noon CST today for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05