675
FXUS63 KFSD 031724
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1124 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Cold, below normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

-  Scattered flurries are possible through the early afternoon.
   Be prepared for isolated slick spots.

-  Wind chill values drop to -10 to -25 in most locations tonight
   into early Thursday.

-  Stronger winds expected Thursday into Thursday night, possibly
   leading to patchy blowing snow across parts of southwestern
   MN and northwestern IA.

-  Details remain uncertain, but additional snow and
   precipitation chances continue this weekend into early next
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

TODAY: A mild morning with temperatures warming a bit early in the
overnight, and staying steady or slowly falling, thanks to WAA
winning out and continued stratus. Our 1 AM CST temperatures have
been in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and most locations have started
falling through 2 AM. Cold front continues to move though the
southern portions of our forecast area, so any lingering
precipitation should come to an end through the overnight hours
south of I-90. Elsewhere and through the morning hours, scattered
flurries linger. Could see some patchy slick spots, especially on
elevated and untreated surfaces.

With the push of CAA and colder temperatures, expect steady to
falling temperatures through the day today. Highs will have already
been reached this morning, and expect afternoon temperatures in the
teens and 20s. Expect breezy winds, with gusts today around 25 mph,
leading to wind chills near to below zero.

TONIGHT: Much colder 925mb temperatures and clearing skies thanks
to surface high pressure allows temperatures to fall into the teens
and single digits below zero east of I-29, to the single digits
above with some lingering cloud cover toward south central SD. Even
with lighter winds, wind chills fall to as cold as -25 F. Areas
across southwestern MN into northwestern IA look to be the lowest.
Some locations do drop to Cold Weather Advisory criteria for a few
hours; however, conditions are marginal enough to forgo a headline
at this time.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Surface high pressure moves to the east Thursday,
and we`ll see stronger winds between the compressed surface pressure
gradient and mixing into some stronger winds aloft. May see some
gusts Thursday through Thursday night in the higher elevations
around 35 mph. Because of this have added blowing snow mention to
the grids.

Increased WAA and continued southerly flow should aid in warming us
up into the 20s to mid 30s, warmest in south central SD. Short wave
and subtle surface front move through Thursday night into Friday,
with a stronger wave and front moving through during the day Friday.
May see another non-dirunal temperature swing Friday. Additionally,
can`t rule out some isolated precipitation with through this period
with the boundaries, but guidance shows both fronts being fairly
moisture starved so most should stay dry.

SATURDAY ONWARD: Guidance diverges through the weekend with regards
to any waves/systems. Generally, near to below normal temperatures
continue through the weekend, with some warmer temperatures on the
horizon early next week.

Precipitation wise, although models are split on where a wave tracks
Saturday into Saturday night, light precipitation is likely (60% or
more across the area of measurable precipitation). The GFS tracks
precip through the southern MO Valley, the Canadian across
southwestern MN, and the ECMWF in the middle. Timing and strength
vary quite a bit, so confidence is low in details.

Northwesterly flow prevails through the early part of next week, and
could see a few short waves move across the northern and central
Plains. A stronger wave is progged to slide into the region mid next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

An MVFR stratus deck drifting slowly southward continues to impact
the area mainly over southwest Minnesota into southeast South
Dakota, with a second, lower stratus deck (around 1-1.5 kft CIG)
located over south-central South Dakota. These two areas of stratus
will gradually erode through the afternoon, leading to the return of
VFR conditions for the area by the mid-afternoon, except for south-
central South Dakota where it will erode by this evening. Can`t rule
out some light fog developing with the snowpack out there late
tonight into early tomorrow morning, but chances are low (15-25%)
for this to occur at this time.

Northwesterly winds will gradually diminish from west to east
through this afternoon as a surface high pressure moves into the
region. Winds turn light and variable tonight as the high slides
directly overhead, but winds will increase out of the south through
the day tomorrow as the high moves east of the area. Wind gusts will
be around 15-25 kts by the end of the period for most of the
area, with gusts over 25 kts possible in south-central South
Dakota and in the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge in
southwest Minnesota.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...Samet