607
FXUS63 KFSD 192309
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
509 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm-up is expected over the weekend, with highs in the
  upper- 50s to possibly the low-60s on both Saturday and
  Sunday.

- Much colder air may arrive closer to the Thanksgiving travel
  period, with the chance for below average temperatures
  increasing by Tuesday night.

- Our next best chance of rain will be Monday night into
  Tuesday, with a low (20-30%) chance of measurable rainfall
  mainly along and east of Highway-75.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A stubborn stratus deck has left areas along and east of I-29 under
cloudy and chilly conditions while areas west of there have been
sunny and mild. This stratus deck will gradually erode from west to
east through the remainder of the afternoon, though areas east of I-
29 may not see some clearing until after the sun sets. Sunshine and
some warm air advection at 850 mb has led to highs in the upper-50s
to low-60s over south-central South Dakota, with temperatures
gradually decreasing with eastward extent. Additional stratus will
move in from northwest to southeast through tonight behind a weak
cold front moving across the area. These low clouds will likely
linger through tomorrow morning across the area, though clouds
should slowly clear the area from west to east heading into the
afternoon as a surface high pressure system drifts into the
region. Can`t rule out some sprinkles with the low cloud cover
late tonight into tomorrow morning, but any activity should
remain patchy in nature. Temperatures will be cool overall due
to the cloud cover, but still in the mid-40s to low-50s, which
is still slightly above average for this time of year.

Tomorrow night, an upper-level trough will move into the south-
central Plains, but should be far enough south of the area to keep
us dry. Still can`t rule out some sprinkles/drizzle along the
Highway-20 corridor under the clouds associated with this system,
but most of us should stay dry. Rain will continue to stay to the
south of our area through Friday, but we`ll stay mainly cloudy south
of Highway-18 due to the northern edge of the cloud shield
scraping by the area. Highs on Friday look to be in the mid-40s
to low-50s once again. Warm air advection increases Friday night
ahead of another frontal boundary that will sweep across the
area heading into Saturday. Some guidance tries to bring some
showers to areas along Highway-14 with the frontal passage
during the day on Saturday, but with the best upper-level
support well to our north, rain looks unlikely at this time.

Saturday and Sunday look to be quite warm for this time of year,
with highs in upper-50s across most of the area with some 60s
possible along the Missouri River Valley and into south-central
South Dakota. Enjoy it while it lasts, because a big cool down is on
the way! It starts with an upper-level low located over the Desert
Southwest Saturday night that will eject northeastwards into the day
Sunday, reaching the central Plains by Monday. Another upper-low and
its associated trough looks to slide across the northern Rockies
around the same time. Guidance indicates these two systems will
phase or nearly phase into each other Monday night into Tuesday
and help send a cold front through the area. Precipitation
chances are currently confined to areas along and east of
Highway-75 with this system, with ensemble probabilities of
measurable rainfall around 20-30% in those areas. This system
is still a few days out, so timing and areas with the best rain
chances may shift with future forecasts. More significant will
be the colder temperatures likely ushered in with this system,
with lows dropping to the 20s by Tuesday night and highs only in
the 30s on Wednesday. Colder temperatures look to be in store
heading into Thanksgiving morning, with temperatures potentially
in the teens to low-20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Sharp edge of MVFR to IFR stratus lingers just east of I-29
early this evening. This stratus will likely stall it`s eastward
progression for the night, with secondary area of stratus
surging southward after 10pm. Models not handling this cloud
cover well, but upstream obs suggest MVFR to IFR ceilings arrive
by or after midnight with the passage of a weak cool front.
Minor visibility reductions may be possible, but a short enough
duration to not include in this TAF issuance.

Stratus is expected to linger deep into Thursday with the
persistent northwest winds. Eventually some afternoon mixing may
scattered the lower cloud field, but confidence in timing
remains low.




&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Samet
AVIATION...Dux