387
FXUS63 KFSD 010904
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
304 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry cold continues through the upcoming week. Morning low
  temperatures fall into the single digits with nighttime wind
  chills below zero.

- Scattered light snow may bring minor travel impacts south of
  I-90 toward US Highway 20 this morning through afternoon. High
  confidence that most locations will see under a half inch of
  new snow.

- Chances for light snow develop again Tuesday night into
  Wednesday with a passing cold front. Behind the front, wind
  chills of -10 to - 25F look increasingly likely for Wednesday
  night into early Thursday.

- Details remain uncertain, but additional snow chances continue
  into the weekend. Regardless colder temperatures prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

TODAY-TONIGHT: Haven`t seen much in the way of fog develop this
morning, although some of the hi-res guidance continues to show the
potential for some through the valleys and along the Buffalo Ridge.
Given trends, think that stratus and some patchy flurries prevail
through the morning over any fog development, but can`t entirely
rule out some isolated fog. Snow chances later this morning and into
the afternoon have trended a bit further to the south, so did trend
closer to US Hwy 20. Amounts remain less than half an inch.

Think that we`ll see stratus stick around much of the day especially
east of I-29 so remained a bit more pessimistic with highs, keeping
us in the teens and 20s. Southerly winds this afternoon may gust
around 20 mph. Winds become light tonight with surface high pressure
moving into the area. Stratus should clear out, or at least diminish
in coverage, with lows tonight in the single digits either side of
0F. We might see a few locations stay a bit warmer if stratus
redevelops or lingers later into tonight. HREF and some hi-res
guidance show the potential for fog to develop again tonight, but
confidence is low.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A relatively warmer day expected Tuesday with
southerly flow and increased WAA. Robust cold front moves through
the northern and central Plains later in the afternoon into the
evening. Flurries to light snow are possible as the front moves
through, with guidance trending up a smidge in QPF and a bit faster.
A handful of 01.00z CAMs show some light snow moving into the US Hwy
14 corridor by the mid/late afternoon hours, moving east into
Tuesday night. Depending on how quickly the front moves through and
if precipitation is slightly preceding it, can`t rule out some
mixed precip during the afternoon and early evening, especially if
we warm into the 30s west of the James. Much colder air and stronger
winds move in behind the front. If we see new light snow
Tuesday/Tuesday night, strong winds may lead to some patchy blowing
snow for the Wednesday morning commute. Increased pops and QPF a bit
from the NBM. With the quick moving front, amounts should remain
light.

With the strongest push of CAA through the day on Wednesday, we`ll
see much colder temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday as Arctic
high pressure slides in. Lows Wednesday night look to be the coldest
of the week, falling into the single digits and teens below zero.
Even with light winds, wind chills may plummet to around 20 to 25
below 0F.

LATE WEEK ONWARD: Ridging breaks down over the Pacific, taking us
from more northwesterly flow to zonal flow. We`ll see a few
shortwaves move through the pattern with a stronger wave Saturday.
Guidance has trended into a bit more agreement, so started trending
pops up slightly for Saturday. A lot can and will still change, so
keep an eye on the forecast if you have travel plans across the
Plains and Upper Midwest. Regardless of snow chances, temperatures
remain near to below average late week and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

An uncertain short-term forecast is currently ongoing across the
area. MVFR stratus has parked itself generally along and west of I-
29 and is stationary. This is because of a low level surface ridge
that is beginning to slide off to the east. As this ridge pushes
eastwards, low level winds will turn to out of the south/southwest.
This could result in the stratus pushing off to the north/northeast
and advecting drier air into the area. However, the uncertainty
comes with the next potential for light snow. This incoming wave
could saturate low level thermal profiles and result in additional
stratus formation, keeping low level stratus locked in place. Have
gone with the locked in place option as of now but trends will be
closely monitored through the night.

Latest guidance still continue to show the potential for fog to
develop. However, no fog is present across the area. Think that any
fog potential will come east of I-29 where skies are mainly clear.
Have taken out any mention of mist (BR) in KFSD and KSUX`s TAFs
since the MVFR stratus continues to sit over all TAF terminals.

Chances for light snow will arrive a bit before daybreak, generally
along highway-20. That said, latest guidance has backed off a bit on
the snow. Still could see some light snow so have kept a PROB30
group in KSUX`s TAF. Still think that ceilings and visibilities will
remain at MVFR levels in the snow.

Given the uncertainty in the stratus`s progression, have kept MVFR
stratus in all TAFs through the night. Think the stratus will begin
to lift tomorrow morning but again, will need to keep a close eye on
its trends. Southerly winds will pick up by tomorrow afternoon
before going light and variable to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...Meyers