859
FXUS63 KFSD 111144
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
544 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries to light snow this morning will transition to a
  wintry mix of freezing rain, snow, and sleet mainly west of a
  De Smet-Sioux Falls-Cherokee, IA line. Ice accumulations will
  range from a glaze to a 0.15" of an inch with the highest
  accumulations west of the James River Valley.

- Mainly light snow will occur east of the previously mentioned
  line with 1-3 inches of fresh snow expected. The highest
  accumulations will likely occur across southwestern MN.

- The combination of slippery road conditions and accumulating
  snowfall will lead to minor travel impacts especially during
  the morning commute.

- Confidence continues to increase in accumulation snowfall on
  Saturday especially along the Missouri River Valley. Overall
  amounts continue to trend towards the 1-3 inch range.

- An influx of arctic air over the weekend will lead to cold
  temperatures and even colder winds chills especially by Sunday
  morning. Wind chill values as low as -30 degrees will be
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: A wintry day ahead! Taking a look across the area,
we`re continuing to see areas of flurries to light snow streaming
into areas west of the James River Valley this morning. The forecast
remains on track for areas of light snow to transition to a wintry
mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow as 800:900 mb temperatures
warm with the approaching surface warm front. While the defining
line between snow and wintry mix likely sits west of a De Smet to
Sioux Falls to Cherokee, IA line; we`ll continue to see precipitation
coverage expand to the southeast over the course of the morning
with the mid-level wave. With accumulative ice amounts expected
to range from between a glaze to 0.15" of an inch with the highest
amounts west of the James River Valley, slippery road conditions
are expected in the areas of highest accumulation. With this in
mind, minor travel impacts are expected during the morning
commute so make sure to slow down and drive to the conditions!

Shifting gears here, mainly light snow will continue east of the
previously mentioned line with the potential for sleet mixing in
nearest the line itself. Looking aloft, snowfall rates could see a
slight uptick by late morning mainly across southwestern MN as
increasing dPVA and mid-level frontogenesis lead to a narrow
corridor of enhanced snowfall. Within this area, snowfall rates
between 0.25" to 0.50" in/hr will be possible at times according to
the HREF. With this in mind, where the highest rates develop will
likely carry our highest accumulations for this event. Nonetheless,
snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches are expected with the highest
accumulations in southwestern MN. With all this in mind, a Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 am through 6 pm for
most areas besides along the Missouri River Valley. Lastly, with
the progressive nature of this system; conditions should begin
to clear from northwest to southeast over the course of the evening.

THE WEEKEND: Heading into the weekend, mostly quiet conditions are
expected for most of the day on Friday. However, this will be short-
lived as another mid-level clipper swings through the area from
Friday night into Saturday bringing renewed chances for snow.
Looking at deterministic guidance, most guidance continues to point to
1-3 inch amounts so far with the focus being across the Missouri
River Valley. With that being said, uncertainty with the track could
still shift the highest amounts northwards or southwards over the
next couple of days so continue to monitor you local forecast as the
details could change! Otherwise, the other concern continues to be
on the colder temperatures and even colder wind chills. As an influx
of arctic air and a fresh snowpack helps temperatures plummet into
the single digits to teens over the weekend, we`ll likely see sub-
zero wind chills return to the area each night through Sunday.
Sunday morning continues to look like the peak of the coldest
conditions with values between 20 to 30 below zero expected. We`ll
likely need a cold weather headline these or colder values occur.

NEXT WEEK: Looking into the new week, quieter conditions likely
return from Monday onwards as an upper-level ridge resets our
overall pattern to quasi-zonal flow. While there will be a few waves
that push through between Monday and Wednesday, highs will likely
hover near to just above freezing. With this in mind, this will be
a welcomed change from the wave train moving forward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will transition to MVFR and lower this TAF
period mainly due to increasing snow chances. Taking a look at
satellite imagery, VFR stratus continues to sit over the area
this morning ahead of an approaching wave. MVFR to IFR cigs and
vsbys are expected by mid morning as light snow and wintry mix
develops across the area. IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys will then
develop by early afternoon especially at KFSD and KHON. Nonetheless,
things should taper off by this evening as MVFR to IFR cigs
return for the rest of the TAF period. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will become more northerly by this evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ039-
     040-054>056-060>062-065>067.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     SDZ038-052-053-057>059.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05