694
FXUS63 KFSD 012009
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
209 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Wintry cold, below normal temperatures continue through
   early next week.

-  Chances for light snow return Tuesday night into Wednesday
   with a passing cold front. Behind the front, wind chills of
   -10 to -25F look increasingly likely for Wednesday night
    into early Thursday.

-  Details remain uncertain, but additional snow chances
   continue this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Northwest flow aloft brings minor warming aloft to the area
overnight into Tuesday, lifting the DGZ a little higher and limiting
the moisture within this layer. This supports little to no
precipitation tonight into most of Tuesday. With lighter winds in
place tonight at the surface and little to no cloud cover, lows
should drop into the single digits, above and below normal.

Slightly warmer conditions are expected Tuesday as a wave moves into
the area. Warm advection and re-saturation of the DGZ is expected
from west to east through the afternoon into the evening, with the
better saturation north of I-90. One note is that the DGZ will be a
bit on the high side and while it does saturate in the afternoon, a
dry layer in the lower levels may slow any precipitation
development. There is also a small chance for some mixed
precipitation, but that should mainly occur with the lighter
precipitation as heavier precipitation should bring better wet
bulbing and drop the low level thermal field below zero and support
mainly snow. At this time snowfall amounts should remain less than
an inch with the better chances north of I-90.

Behind this wave colder air will surge south with the stronger cold
air advection in the lower levels Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. A few gusts around 30 mph will be likely during this time,
which will aid in dropping wind chills to 5 below to 15 below zero.

A pool of cold air will be in place Wednesday into Thursday morning,
but high pressure will bring lighter winds. This will allow
temperatures to fall to 5 below to 15 below zero. When coupled with
a light wind, wind chill values could fall to 20 below to 25 below
zero at times.

Friday through Monday will see northwest flow aloft with a few
weaker waves traversing the flow. Overall agreement on timing of
these weaker waves is pretty low, but the main thing that is
consistent is that only minor precipitation amounts are currently
expected. Temperatures during this time frame will remain below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Patchy MVFR conditions will remain possible into the afternoon,
with the better chances over parts of northwest IA. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08