033
FXUS63 KFSD 071405
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
805 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds chills as cold as -20 degrees will continue through
  mid-morning mainly across southwestern MN.

- Additional chances for light snow are expected this afternoon
  and evening with accumulations of an inch or less expected.

- A parade of waves will move through the region during the
  week ahead, bringing snow risks on both Tuesday and Thursday.
  The most impactful snow system to watch may be on Thursday.

- Confidence is growing that winds Tuesday night into Wednesday
  may break or exceed the 40 mph mark. We`ll need to monitor the
  snow pack and air temps closely to monitor blowing snow
  potential.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Shortwave trough quickly moving through western South/North
Dakota this morning producing a corridor of light to
occasionally moderate snow that`s moving eastward. Model
agreement in this wave and precipitation holding together as it
moves east has boosted confidence that light snow accumulations
will be likely later Sunday into Sunday night. Therefore have
pushed PoPs upwards over most areas for the eastward moving
band. A slight upward tick in QPF will result in snow totals
around one half inch in most areas. However, areas of the
Buffalo Ridge where dPVA is strongest and southwesterly warm
advection lingers longer could see 1-1.5" of snow by midnight.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: Another cold day ahead! Taking a look across the
area, any lingering flurries continue to gradually dissipate this
morning as a surface high approaches from the northwest. From here,
a cold start to the morning is expected as a fresh snowpack and
lingering cold air advection (CAA) help most areas start on either
side of zero temperature-wise. Combine this with marginally breezy
northeasterly winds and the setup is primed for even colder winds
through mid-morning with values as low as 20 degrees below zero.
While this will mostly affect southwestern MN, make sure to bundle
up if you have any morning activities. Otherwise, quieter conditions
will persist for the first half of the day as temperatures peak in
the positive single digits to low 20s. Looking aloft, a quick mid-
level wave will closely follow the departing surface high leading to
additional chances for light snow during the afternoon to evening
hours. However, unlike with our previous system; amounts will likely
be on the lighter side with additional accumulations of 1 inch or
less expected. Lastly, as temperatures fall into the single digits
to teens overnight; could see the return of below zero wind chills
in southwestern MN to start the day on Monday.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Looking into the new week, quieter conditions
temporarily return by Monday as northwesterly flow continues aloft.
With the return of southerly surface winds and increasing mid-level
warm air advection (WAA), temperatures will rebound towards the 30s
to low 40s for the day with the warmest conditions across southcentral
SD. Looking aloft, the wave train will continue across the northern
plains as northwesterly flow ushers in multiple waves through Wednesday.
The first clipper wave will dives across parts of northern MN by Monday
afternoon passing just north of us. A second and more robust clipper
wave will dive across portion eastern ND and central MN by Tuesday.
While most of the better dynamics will likely stay north of us, areas
north of I-90 will likely get enough lift from the base of the trough
to get increased precipitation chances (30%-50%). However, with
temperatures trending more mild with highs in the upper 30s to
low 50s for the day; most of this should fall as rain.

Nonetheless, can`t rule out an eventual transition to light snow on
the backside of the system as temperatures fall overnight. One thing
worth noting is the tightening SPG with the clipper will likely lead
to strong winds with gusts of 40+ mph from Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Depending on how the previous systems have affected our
snowpack, we could see areas of blowing/drifting snow develop
through Wednesday morning. Nonetheless, this will be something
to watch moving forward. From here, a third mid-level wave will
swing through by Wednesday morning along with its associated
cold front. While there won`t likely be much precipitation
associated with this system, the strong blast of arctic air will
decrease our temperatures going forward with highs mainly in
the teens to 20s for most areas. Lastly, while some key details
are uncertain; mid-range guidance is starting to pick up on the
potential for additional snow from Wednesday night into Thursday
as another quick clipper swings through the area. With this in
mind, make sure to monitor your local forecast as this would the
period to monitor the most.

THURSDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, its more rinse
and repeat. Periods of snow will continue for most of the day on
Thursday before tapering off. A surface high moves through the area
by Friday to replace the previously mentioned system. By Saturday
and Sunday another approaching clipper brings the potential for more
snow across the area. Lastly, temperatures will hover near to just
below normal with the coldest conditions expected on Friday and
Saturday as highs peaking the single digits to mid teens.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A mix of conditions this morning will give way to mostly MVFR to
IFR this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, most
areas continue to be locked into stratus this morning with no
relief in site. Expect the stratus to hang around for most of
the day as our next system approaches bringing some light snow
to the area. Otherwise, light northeasterly winds this morning
will become more southeasterly by this evening. Lastly, while
confidence is low; some high resolution guidance is picking up
on some patchy fog development Monday morning. We`ll have to
continue to monitor that moving forward.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dux
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05