406
FXUS63 KFSD 300442
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1042 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will end from west to east tonight. The majority of
  additional snowfall will occur near and east of the I-29
  corridor, with up to 3 inches. The heaviest snowfall amounts
  are still expected for portions of northwest Iowa, southeast
  of Highway 60.

- Expect areas of drifting and blowing snow to continue this
  evening, as north winds gust into the 30s even after the snow
  ends. Travel impacts may last into early Sunday morning east
  of I-29. Check road conditions before traveling tonight. If
  you must travel, keep a winter emergency preparedness kit in
  your car.

- Much colder air spreads in by Sunday and continues most of
  next week. Morning low temperatures will fall into the single
  digits with nighttime wind chills below 0F.

- Low chances for light snow develop Monday and again Tuesday
  night into Wednesday. Impacts look to be low, if snow occurs,
  at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

TONIGHT: Latest radar trends show the heaviest snow has shifted east
into portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. A combo of
moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates and a north wind
gusting into the upper 20s to lower 30s is occasionally causing
visibility to reach 1/4 mile or less with falling and blowing snow.
Additional light to moderate snow will mostly continue along
and east of the I-29 corridor, ending from west to east later
this evening. Up to 3 inches of additional snowfall is expected
through midnight, mainly near and east of the U.S. Hwy 59
corridor. Visibility will be lowest while snow is falling into
the gusty winds through mid evening. Despite visibility
occasionally dropping below 1/4 mile, true blizzard conditions
are unlikely. Travel will remain difficult where blowing and
drifting snow continues this evening, mainly across northwest
Iowa and portions of southwest Minnesota. Fortunately model
forecast soundings suggest gusts will dissipate late this
evening, so conditions should gradually improve overnight.

SUNDAY: Temperatures will to the single digits by early Sunday
morning. Fortunately wind chills will begin to improve late morning
as winds gradually weaken. Strong Arctic high pressure builds in
from the northwest through the day, starting a stretch of much
colder than normal temperatures. Mixing into anomalously cold (10th
percentile) temperatures aloft will keep clouds around for the day.
Highs will only reach the teens, 20 to 25 degrees below normal for
this time of year.

Despite increasing clouds overnight, Sunday night`s low temperatures
will bottom out into the single digits above and below zero, the
coldest night we`ve had since late last February.

MONDAY: After a cold start, a southwest breeze and highs in the 20s
will make for another chilly day. A weak mid level wave traversing
the Interstates 70 and 80 corridors brings a low to moderate chance
for another round of light snow Monday for areas southeast of a
Vermillion to Sioux Falls to Worthington/Windom line. 12z guidance
has trended drier than previous model solutions. A majority of
models (~75%) suggest that IF snow even occurs near and north of the
Hwy 20 corridor, it`ll be under 0.5 inches. With weak mid level
forcing, expect this to be low impact/nuisance snow.

MONDAY NIGHT: Temperatures drop near to below zero Monday night as
the upper trough passes. Broad 925-850mb warm air advection develops
across the central U.S. Monday night, ahead of a rapidly approaching
northern stream clipper. Model forecast soundings suggest higher
potential for fog Monday night into early Tuesday with a stout
nocturnal inversion atop a saturated sfc layer.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK: Cold northwest flow aloft and persistent
snowpack should keep temperatures cooler than normal for the
majority of the week, but diurnal mixing will allow for some subtle
warming into the 20s and perhaps some 30s Tuesday. A passing cold
front brings another low chance for light snow Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Models suggest a somewhat active pattern across the CONUS
heading into late week and the weekend, but low confidence in the
track of any significant weather systems impacting the region at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Light snow continues to push east of the area late this evening.
Breezy winds out of the northwest with gusts up to about 20 knots
may result in some areas of blowing snow through the night. A large
area of MVFR stratus has begun to push into the area out of North
Dakota. Some flurries have been reported beneath the stratus though
have left out of all TAFs at this time given how it has only been a
few locations reporting it. The stratus is streaming southward just
west of I-29. With the stratus grazing the interstate, have decided
to put MVFR ceilings in KFSD and KSUX TAF for tonight but will
monitor trends.

Uncertainty increases in the MVFR stratus`s coverage for the day
tomorrow. Currently have the stratus breaking up but could see the
stratus persist for a large part of the day. Winds will continue to
weaken and go light and variable by tomorrow evening. Should see
winds turn to out of the south to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for SDZ062-066-
     067-069>071.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ040-
     055-056.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ071.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...Meyers