630
FXUS63 KFSD 150920
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
320 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers/sprinkles north of I-90 early today. Otherwise
  cooler & dry this weekend, though still mild for mid-November
  with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

- Rain chances (30-60%) return Monday, possibly mixing with snow
  at times Monday night. Moderate confidence in precipitation
  timing, but low confidence in amounts/location.

- Latter half of next week remains unsettled, though with greater
  uncertainty in storm track/timing and associated precipitation
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

TODAY-SUNDAY: A cold front pushing southeast early this morning will
bring temperatures closer to late-October/early-November normals
instead of the mid-late September readings we saw on Friday. A band
of light showers/sprinkles will accompany the trailing elevated
front into areas north of I-90 early-mid morning. This activity will
weaken as it moves into drier air and the remainder of the weekend
will be dry with partly-mostly cloudy skies and seasonably mild high
temps in the upper 40s and 50s.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: A strong storm system moving onshore in California
today will cross the Rockies Sunday, then weaken as it tracks into
the northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley early next week. Models
are still fluctuating on the track of this system, with latest runs
showing more of a northward trend than we were seeing at this time
yesterday morning. While southern parts of the region should see
light rain with the initial wave of moisture on Monday, trends are
now pointing to increasing chances near/north of I-90 by Monday
evening as the wave shears off to the east. The northward shift also
results in warmer thermal profiles, with mostly rain expected. The
exception will be a lingering potential rain/snow mix in the higher
elevations of southwest Minnesota late Monday/Monday night. Timing
of the system has remained relatively consistent, with the highest
chances focused on Monday afternoon/night and exiting by daybreak
Tuesday. However, the north-south fluctuations lend to lower
confidence in exact precipitation amounts and location. That said,
the latest NBM is showing moderate (40-60%) probability of 24 hour
rainfall exceeding 0.10 inch with a 30-40% probability of topping
0.25 inch east of I-29.

Temperatures do remain on the mild side of mid-November normals,
with highs mainly in the 40s and lows a few degrees either side of
freezing.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Brief upper ridging Wednesday will break down with
the approach of another trough swinging out of the southern Rockies
Thursday. A much broader spectrum of possible tracks are seen with
this system as it moves into the Plains late next week, leading to
low confidence in timing/location of precipitation chances. While
temperatures could see a brief bump back into the 50s for parts of
the forecast area on Wednesday, highs in the 40s are more likely for
the latter part of the work week, with moderate (>50%) probability
that temperatures will remain in the 30s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Latest satellite shows abundant high level clouds across the area to
begin the TAF period. This cloud cover will persist through the
night while a cold front passes through the area. This front will
turn winds to out of the northwest in its wake. Still think light
rain showers will push into the area later tonight but confidence is
just low enough in the coverage of light rain to keep rain mention
in a PROB30 group rather than in a prevailing group. KHON is the
only terminal that may see light rain tonight.

VFR conditions are expected for the vast majority of the area but
some MVFR stratus in North Dakota looks to make it into the forecast
area just before sunrise. Again, this looks to only affect KHON.
Cloud cover will be on the decrease through the morning hours,
leaving mainly clear skies for the afternoon. Northwest gusts will
increase to 15-25 knots for the afternoon hours before weakening to
end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...Meyers