249
FXUS63 KFSD 051740
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1140 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry mix continues to transition to light snow this morning
  mainly along and north of I-90. While mostly light accumulations
  are expected, a few patchy slick spots will be possible
  especially on untreated surfaces.

- A quick-moving winter system will bring periods of light to
  moderate snow to most areas between Saturday and Saturday
  night. With between 2-5 inches of additional snowfall expected
  and pockets of locally higher possible, confidence is high
  (80+%) in minor to moderate travel impacts especially along
  and east of I-29.

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue into the new
  week with the next chances for precipitation possible on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: A slightly less cold day ahead! Taking a look
across the area, we`re continuing to see a wintry mix of freezing
rain and/or sleet transition to light snow this morning mainly
across the highway-14 corridor via web-cameras. While mostly light
accumulations are expected, can`t rule out a few slick spots across
the previously mentioned areas this morning especially on untreated
surfaces. With this mind, make sure to drive with care while making
those morning commutes. From here, should see most of this wintry
precipitation continue to gradually spread to the southeast with the
cold front for most of the day before things taper off this evening.
Otherwise, we`ll be less cold today with highs in the low to upper
30s. However, with increasing westerly to northwesterly winds;
conditions will still be on the chillier side so make sure to have
those coats handy. Lastly, cooler air will continue to funnel in
overnight leading to lows in the single digits to 20s with the
coldest conditions across southwestern MN. With this the stage is
set for our next winter system

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Looking into the rest of the weekend, an active
pattern will continue aloft as a quick moving system ejecting out of
the Rockies into the northern and central plains by Saturday.
Starting in the morning, most of the CAMs have light snow developing
in the western portion of SoDak in the WAA regime ahead of the
surface trough. As the surface trough tracks to the east-southeast
into our area by late morning, most guidance continue to show an
enhanced area of snowfall developing across southeastern SD which
will be the primary driver of our accumulations with this system.
Underneath this developing band of snow, increasing snowfall rates
of 1" to 1.5" in/hr according to the HREF could lead to moderate to
heavy accumulations at times in the afternoon to early evening
timeframe. Nonetheless, should see things taper off by late evening
as everything progresses southeastwards into central IA.

Shifting over to overall amounts, most areas can expect between 2-5
inches of fluffy snow along and east of the James River with the
highest amounts east of Highway-81. While isolated pockets of higher
(6+") will be possible, deterministic guidance continues to struggle
with where the the band exactly sets up. Nonetheless, portions of
far southeastern SD and northwestern IA continue to look like the
favorites at the moment. With all this in mind and collaboration
with our neighbors, decided to pull the trigger on a Winter Weather
Advisory for most areas besides portions of southcentral SD
(Gregory, Brule, and Charles Mix Co.) start at 6 am on Saturday.
Lastly, minor to moderate travel impacts are expected across the
area mostly due to falling snow and accumulative amounts so make
sure to make adjustments to travel plans accordingly. Shifting gears
to Sunday, increases to our existing overall snowpack and northerly
surface winds will lead to more blustery conditions with highs
mainly in the single digits to upper teens. Colder conditions
overnight will lead to even colder wind chill Sunday night into
Monday morning with values as cold as 14 below possible.

NEXT WEEK: Looking into the new week, an active pattern persists
aloft as northwesterly flow continues to usher in the wave train.
The better of the chances continues to look like Tuesday night into
Wednesday. However, with guidance diverging in terms of the track of
the system uncertainty remain in overall amounts. With a stronger
push of WAA expected ahead of this system, we`ll likely have to
monitor p-types too. Otherwise, near to just below seasonal
temperatures will continue across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Scattered rain and snow showers (with some freezing rain and sleet
mixed in) continues to move from northwest to southeast across the
area. Guidance is doing a poor job handling the precipitation, but
it does look to remain hit or miss in nature heading into the
afternoon. So there will be chances for precipitation (mainly a
rain/snow mix) at the terminals through the afternoon and early
evening. We`ll get a period of dry weather overnight before our next
round of precipitation arrives, which is expected to be
all snow at this time. A band of snow looks to develop over
central South Dakota around daybreak tomorrow morning and move
eastward through the morning, reaching the terminals during the
last few hours of the period. MVFR visibilities are expected
with the snow initially, but heavier snow rates will likely
arrive just after this TAF period.

CIGS will be a mix of IFR and MVFR through the period, with some
scattering out of the lower cloud deck at KSUX around midnight
tonight before filling back in tomorrow morning. Expect IFR CIGS
when tomorrow`s round of snow arrives at the terminals. Winds this
afternoon will be out of the northwest around 8-12 kts, higher in
south-central South Dakota up to 12-18 kts. Winds turn light and
variable tonight and look to pick up again through tomorrow morning
out of the east-southeast.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     SDZ038>040-052>056-058>062-064>071.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...Samet