237
FXUS63 KFSD 182339
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
539 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extensive clouds continue into Wednesday, with some potential
  for fog overnight.

- An extended period of dry weather is now expected through the
  upcoming weekend, and potentially longer.

- Temperatures are now favored to remain near or above normal
  through the upcoming weekend, with some potential for 60s by
  this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: Extensive stratus remain in place across the Tri-
State area, holding temperatures below normal in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.  Some breaks in the clouds are possible through sunset,
but may be brief.

TONIGHT: Stratus will be extensive across the region heading into
the overnight hours. As we move past midnight, some erosion of
the stratus is likely from west to east as mid-upr clouds
increase. Guidance indicating that stratus further east may
begin to settle downward after sunset, producing reduced
visibilities in areas especially east of I- 29. Further west, if
stratus clears after midnight, additional radiational cooling
induced fog may develop west of the James River into central
South Dakota. At this point, not expecting widespread dense fog,
but a few locations may drop below 1 mile.

WEDNESDAY: Mid-lvl flow turns zonal on Wednesday, allowing
southwesterly surface flow to return, and pushing stratus east
during the day. The result will be temperatures climbing 5 to
10 degrees above normal, with 60s likely in south central South
Dakota.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A front will  pass through the region by Thursday
morning with just a bit of increased mid-upr clouds.  A very quiet
end of the week is likely as high pressure moves through the
Northern Plains. Temperatures may dip a couple degrees both days,
but are still expected to remain 5+ degrees above normal.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:  As a cut-off low develops over the southwestern
US, warm zonal flow will prevail further north.  This will bring an
extended period of warm and dry weather through the weekend and into
next week.  Temperatures Saturday through Monday climb into the 50s
and 60s which will be 10+ degrees above normal.  The next risk for
any rainfall may hold off until late Tuesday and Wednesday, but are
highly dependent on the track of the ejecting southwest low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to prevail for the majority of the
period due to a low stratus deck. Stratus is slowly pushed east
through the day. Winds are currently light and variable and should
remain so until mid-Wednesday morning. Winds will then increase,
peaking between 15 and 22 kts by late morning to the mid-afternoon.
Winds will decrease quickly around sunset.

Early Wednesday morning may see some visibility reductions as patchy
dense fog develops. Fog is most likely to develop in portions of
northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. Visibility
between 3 and 6 miles is possible by daybreak, with pockets of
1-2 miles or lower. Fog should burn off by mid-morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...AJP