869
FXUS63 KFSD 261726
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow is slowly winding down and should exit the area by
  daybreak. The strongest winds have likewise passed, though
  northwest winds gusting 25-40 mph will linger through the
  morning before slowly weakening.

- Quiet but chilly weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving
  Day. Holiday travelers will still want to monitor the latest
  road conditions, especially north where greater amounts of
  snow fell.

- Travel after Thanksgiving will likely be impacted by growing
  potential for a winter storm Friday into Saturday night.
  Confidence in at least moderate snow accumulations continues
  to increase.

- Colder temperatures will follow the weekend storm system with
  sub-zero nighttime wind chills early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

THROUGH TONIGHT: Still seeing lingering light snow/flurries near
and east of I-29 early this morning, with winds still gusting 35
to 45 mph. May still see localized visibility below 1 mile or
isolated advisory-level winds during the pre-dawn hours, but
with gradual improvement in conditions expected to continue,
have allowed all headlines to expire as scheduled at 3 AM.

We`ll remain breezy-windy through the day into the early
evening, especially east of I-29 where morning gusts will
remain in the 30-40 mph range. Can`t rule out some very patchy
blowing or drifting snow with continued stronger gusts. Highs
today in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Colder tonight with lows in
the teens. Clouds will increase along the Missouri River this
evening with a passing wave across Nebraska, but precipitation
is not expected.

THANKSGIVING: High pressure prevails on Thursday, with highs
again in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Light winds are expected along
with more dry conditions and more sun than clouds. Lows in the
teens, with some single digits possible along US Hwy 14. Clouds
will increase Thanksgiving night ahead of our next system.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: With the pre-holiday travel system behind us,
focus will now shift to a growing potential for a post-holiday
winter storm which will impact portions of the northern Plains.
While still some slight variations in strength/location, models
are coming into better agreement in showing a band of snow
developing from Montana, southeastward across the Dakotas into
portions of southwest MN/western Iowa Friday. This in response
to 850-700MB warm advection ahead of an approaching wave. A long
fetch of southerly flow at 850MB will draw ample gulf moisture
northward into this mid-level frontal zone, with additional lift
provided by the advancing wave and the right entrance region of
a strengthening upper jet. Even seeing hints of weak instability
above the mid-level front, which would further focus snowfall
into a more narrow but potentially more intense band by late
Friday into Friday night. Greatest uncertainty at this point
remains the exact location of the band and snowfall amounts
within said band.

Latest ensembles focus the highest probabilities for snowfall
over the northeast half of our forecast area Friday through
Friday night. Here, we see moderate to locally high (60-80%)
probabilities of moderate/advisory level snowfall through 12Z
Saturday, with snowfall expected to continue through the day
Saturday (highest chances near and east of I-29) as deep
moisture wraps around the strengthening storm system as it
moves east toward the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Cluster analysis does show some lower probability scenarios
which basically provide the extremes of potential with 1) a
weaker/less deep trough leading to less snowfall (though still
moderate probability of advisory level totals in some areas) and
2) a stronger/slower trough which would increase snowfall
potential across southwest portions of the forecast area. The
scenario highlighted above dominates the cluster space, though,
and is the current preferred solution.

While winds do not currently look to be as strong/intense as
with our early week system, breezy conditions are anticipated,
so areas of blowing/drifting snow will be possible. At this
time, snow expected to wind down by daybreak Sunday with lighter
winds as weak high pressure slides across the area.

Temperatures Friday-Saturday will be similar to the rest of the
holiday week with highs in the 20s-lower 30s and lows largely in
the teens. However even colder air surges into the north-central
US behind the storm system, with highs in the teens as we close
out the holiday weekend.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Guidance is quite varied on any waves or
systems through early to mid next week, and with the focus on
the weekend, did not dive too deep into the details. Regardless
of any precipitation chances, even colder air moves into the
region, especially with the anticipated new snowpack. Highs look
to be in the teens to mid 20s, with lows in the single digits,
with much of the area possibly dropping below zero by early
Monday morning. Relatively light winds should keep wind chills
above any headline criteria, but certainly time to prep those
winter layers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Stratus continues to linger across a large part of the area to start
the period, but it is continuing to erode along the edges and this
will continue through the early-to-mid-afternoon. With that,
VFR conditions are currently expected from the mid-afternoon
today onwards at all TAF sites. Can`t rule out some fog tonight
(30-50% chance) especially where there is snow on the ground
(like KHON) as winds diminish, but confidence was not high
enough to include in the TAF at this time.

Some guidance also indicates the potential for additional low-
stratus to develop late tonight and linger into tomorrow morning,
especially for areas north of I-90 and even more so for
southwest Minnesota. However, this may develop just north and
east of KHON and KFSD, so just hinted at some stratus potential
starting at 10z tomorrow in the TAFs. Confidence was not high
enough to go with sub-VFR CIGS at this time as there is only a
20-30% chance of CIGS less than 3 kft at KHON and KFSD.

Northwesterly winds will continue to diminish through the afternoon,
but still gusting upwards of 25-30 kts east of US Highway-75 for the
remainder of this afternoon. Winds will be light, around 5-8
kts, tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG/JH
AVIATION...Samet