Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
519 FXUS64 KFWD 011914 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 114 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers and occasional lightning will continue mainly near and east of I-35 this afternoon. - Sub-freezing temperatures with wind chills in the 20s are expected on tonight into Tuesday morning. - Brief warming is expected mid-week before another cold front brings cooler air and scattered rain chances to the region late Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Isolated to scattered light showers and the occasional lightning strike are expected to blossom across portions of eastern North Texas and Central Texas this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave disturbance treks across the Southern Plains. Greatest chances to observe rain will be in our far East Texas and eastern Central Texas counties, but there remains potential for light rain and drizzle closer to the I-35 corridor. Persistent cloud cover and east-northeast winds will keep this afternoon chilly, with high temperatures only ranging from the mid 30s to mid-upper 40s. As the aforementioned shortwave begins to exit to the northeast this evening, rain chances will shift east and a slug of drier, colder air is expected to spread across the region. In response, temperatures overnight into Tuesday will be quite a bit chillier than this morning, with lows expected to bottom out in the mid 20s to around 32. Wind chills will be near to slightly below ambient temperatures in the low 20s to around 30-31. It would be pertinent to bundle up appropriately on your way out the door Tuesday morning! Over Tuesday, the surface high will slide through the region, eventually forcing winds to return out of the southeast later in the afternoon. This, along with mostly sunny skies, will allow for slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures in the mid 40s to mid- upper 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 With southerly winds persisting into midweek, expect additional warming on Wednesday as highs are able to reach back into the upper 50s to around 70. Our next storm system is expected to impact the region beginning mid-late this week. A shortwave trough will spread across the Plains, urging higher-quality moisture northward by Wednesday. Lift from the system`s cold front will interact with the increased moisture and allow for rain chances mainly across portions of Central Texas late Wednesday into Thursday, while much of the rest of the region looks to remain dry as the front passes. A quickly approaching shortwave disturbance moving across the Southern Plains will promote isentropic upglide overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass, allowing for more showers to spread across North and Central Texas Thursday into Friday. With much cooler post-frontal temperatures expected late this week, particularly on Thursday night into Friday where a most of North and western Central Texas may dip below freezing, we will need to keep an eye on the temperature profiles and the timing of freezing temperatures and precipitation. If everything were to align, then there may be a shot at some wintry precipitation during this time. Since there still remains quite a bit uncertainty on the exact potential for any freezing precipitation and more specific locations, have kept all precipitation liquid with this forecast update and will continue to monitor latest guidance as it comes in for more confidence. All this being said, keep an eye on the forecast this week as more details become available in the coming days. Behind the departing shortwave, expect another warm up as we go into next weekend. Guidance is hinting at yet another cold front heading into next week, but timing and exact details remain uncertain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 MVFR cigs will continue to very slowly lift over the rest of the afternoon, before finally lifting and exiting the region around 00- 01Z this evening. Northerly winds have once again become established across D10 after a period of more east-northeast winds earlier this morning (ACT has remained northerly). Northerly winds will prevail with speeds less than 10 kts through much of the period as a surface high moves into and across the region tomorrow. Once the surface high moves to our east, winds will begin to return out of the south closer to 18Z tomorrow within D10, and a few hours later at ACT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 30 52 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 30 52 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 26 47 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 24 51 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 26 50 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 31 51 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 27 50 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 32 52 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 30 55 37 67 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 26 57 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater